The Super Bowl LVII matchup is set between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some longshot prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.
Miles Sanders: first touchdown prop
First touchdown scorer prop is a tough one to hit, but there appears to be some value in this number for Miles Sanders:
If the Eagles score first, odds are it occurs on a play from inside the 10-yard line based on this data from TruMedia:
- 56% of touchdowns against the Chiefs occur inside the 10-yard line.
- 61% of Eagles touchdowns occur inside the 10-yard line
When the Eagles score from within the 10-yard line, here’s a breakdown of how it occurs:
- Eight passing touchdowns (20%)
- 32 rushing touchdowns (80%)
So if we’re betting on the first Eagles touchdown, the odds appear to be in favor of a rushing touchdown, which means we’re going with either Sanders or Jalen Hurts.
Including the postseason, Hurts has 29 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, just edging out Sanders with 28. However, since Hurts is still dealing with a shoulder injury, the Eagles will probably try to avoid exposing him to unnecessary hits early in the game.
Following this logic, we should then expect Sanders to be more likely to get touches near the goal line early in the game, making him the most likely first-touchdown scorer for the Eagles.
DeVonta Smith: Super Bowl MVP
Based on the logic I used to support taking the over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards, it’s also worth considering him for MVP at these odds:
To summarize the previous article, Smith tends to see a higher share of the workload when opposing defenses employ a high rate of two-high coverage formations.
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs have used two-high coverage at a rate of 40% or higher in all but one game this year.
The Eagles have played four games in which they faced two-high coverages at a rate of at least 40%, and in those four games Smith has surpassed 100 yards three times.
If Smith goes over 100 yards with a touchdown, he’s likely to be in the MVP conversation. Since the Eagles don’t throw the ball at a high rate, it’s possible Smith’s receiving output would overshadow Hurts’s production and earn him the honors.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson: Interception Prop
Last week I laid out some reasons to bet the over on Patrick Mahomes’s interception prop. If you want to double down, take a shot at Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to record an interception.
- Chauncey Gardner Johnson intereception prop (+800)
Gardner-Johnson is going to be heavily involved in attempting to slow down Travis Kelce, which makes him a good target for this prop.
Kelce was the targeted receiver for three of Mahomes’s 12 interceptions this season, per TruMedia.
Mahomes also threw three more picks when targeting other receivers lined up in the slot, which means half of his interceptions occurred while targeting Kelce (either in-line or the slot) or while targeting other slot receivers.
Gardner-Johnson will likely be involved in covering both Kelce and the Chiefs’ other slot receivers, which means he should have plenty of opportunities.
Gardner-Johnson led the Eagles with six interceptions this season, which can be a fluky stat. However, according to Sports Info Solutions, Gardner-Johnson backed that up with a strong 27% ball-hawk rate (rate at which the defender makes a play on the ball).
A high ball-hawk rate is typically a better predictor of future interception success than interception rate itself. So in this case, we should trust Gardner-Johnson’s interception production.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets for Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Jalen Hurts
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:
- Use coupon code SHARP25 for $25 off a Super Bowl Package.
Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
- Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
- 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)