Best Super Bowl QB Prop Bets for Patrick Mahomes

The Super Bowl LVII matchup is set between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.

Here’s a dive into some of Patrick Mahomes’s quarterback prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.

Sharp Football Betting Package
Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props

Consider the over on Patrick Mahomes’s interceptions prop

Mahomes has thrown just one interception in his last six games, but the Eagles defense has a knack for getting its hands on the football and it’s worth taking the over on Mahomes’s interception prop in Super Bowl LVII. 

The Chiefs attack downfield at a fairly high rate, which means putting the ball in harm’s way on a regular basis. According to TruMedia, Mahomes throws 10 or more yards downfield an average of 11.5 times per game. 

Mahomes’s downfield passing tendency is particularly relevant against the Eagles, who rank fourth in the league with a 20.3% ball-hawk rate (the rate at which the defense makes a play on the ball) on throws 10 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions

Despite Mahomes’s recent trend of protecting the football, he has a track record of turning the ball over against opportunistic defenses. 

Take a look at Mahomes’s attempts per interception rate versus different types of defenses, based on data from TruMedia: 

  • 31.5 attempts per interception against defenses ranked in the top 10 of downfield ball-hawk rate (seven total games against these teams)
  • 117.3 attempts per interception against teams ranked outside the top 10 (12 games)

Mahomes has always been a risk-taker 一 and Chiefs fans wouldn’t want him any other way 一 but that style does come at a price and the Eagles are a defense capable of taking advantage of his tendencies. 

It’s also worth noting Mahomes has thrown two interceptions in each of his previous Super Bowl appearances 一 evidence he does not dial back the risk-taking on the biggest stage. 

Given Mahomes’s style and the Eagles’ opportunistic defense, bet the over on Mahomes interception prop in the Super Bowl. 

More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:

Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.

Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.

Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations

As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:

Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.

This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:

  • Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
  • Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
  • Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
  • Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
  • Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
  • Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)

It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.

Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:

  • 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
  • 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
  • 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)
Sharp Football Betting Package
Take 15% off NFL Betting + Props