Super Bowl prop bets are a staple of big game betting and this year will be no different when the Eagles and Chiefs meet on February 12.
With questions regarding the health of both quarterbacks, as well as the Chiefs receiving corps, there’s the potential for a lot of line movement as we draw closer to Super Bowl 57.
We will use this space to track the movement of the lines among all the major prop bets including passing, rushing and receiving.
Chiefs Player Prop Bet Trends:
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Eagles Player Prop Bet Trends:
- DeVonta Smith has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Miles Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- A.J. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dallas Goedert has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jalen Hurts has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 55% ROI)
Super Bowl Player Prop Bets, Line Movement
All lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook. Updated on February 7th, 2023.
Passing Yards, QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 294.5 (-120/-110) | 290.5 (-115/-115) |
| Jalen Hurts | 238.5 (-110/-120) | 246.5 (-115/-115) |
Notable line movement:
- Jalen Hurts’ passing yards prop bet moved down 8 yards to 236.5 since opening at 246.5 yards
Passing Touchdowns, QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 2.5 (+165/-225) | 1.5 (-225/+165) |
| Jalen Hurts | 1.5 (-110/-120) | 1.5 (-115/-115) |
Interceptions, QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 0.5 (-115/-115) | 0.5 (-125/-105) |
| Jalen Hurts | 0.5 (+105/-135) | 0.5 (+115/-150) |
Pass Completions, QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25.5 (-120/-110) | 24.5 (-135/+100) |
| Jalen Hurts | 20.5 (-125/-105) | 21.5 (-120/-110) |
Notable line movement:
- Patrick Mahomes’ passing completions prop bet moved up 1 completion to 25.5 since opening at 24.5
Pass Attempts QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 38.5 (-135/+105) | 38.5 (-130/-105) |
| Jalen Hurts | 30.5 (-130/+100) | 31.5 (-130/-105) |
Longest Completion, QB Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 37.5 (-115/-115) | 37.5 (-120/-110) |
| Jalen Hurts | 37.5 (-120/-110) | 37.5 (-120/-110) |
Rushing Yards Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 47.5 (-115/-115) | 49.5 (-115/-115) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 19.5 (-120/-110) | 22.5 (-120/-110) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 19.5 (-115/-115) | 20.5 (-110/-120) |
| Jalen Hurts | 50.5 (-115/-115) | 49.5 (-110/-110) |
| Miles Sanders | 61.5 (-110/-120) | 58.5 (-110/-120) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 19.5 (-110/-120) | 19.5 (-110/-120) |
| Boston Scott | 8.5 (-110/-120) | 10.5 (-115/-115) |
Notable line movement:
- Miles Sanders’ rushing yards prop bet moved up 3 yards to 61.5 since opening at 58.5
- Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop bet moved down 3 yard to 19.5 since opening at 22.5
- Boston Scott’s rushing yards prop bet moved down 2 yards to 8.5 yards since opening at 10.5
Longest Rush, Rushing Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13.5 (-105/-125) | 13.5 (-105/-130) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8.5 (+110/-145) | 9.5 (-110/-120) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10.5 (-120/-115) | 11.5 (-120/-110) |
| Jalen Hurts | 13.5 (-110/-120) | 13.5 (-110/-120) |
| Miles Sanders | 14.5 (-110/-120) | 13.5 (-125/-105) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8.5 (-125/-105) | 8.5 (-110/-120) |
Notable line movement:
- Miles Sanders’ longest rush prop bet moved up 1 yard to 14.5 since opening at 13.5
- Jerick McKinnon’s longest rush prop bet moved down 1 yard to 8.5 since opening at 9.5
Receiving Yards Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 78.5 (-110/-120) | 77.5 (-110/-120) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 20.5 (-110/-120) | 21.5 (-120/-110) |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15.5 (-120/-110) | 12.5 (-115/-115) |
| A.J. Brown | 72.5 (-115/-115) | 71.5 (-110/-120) |
| DeVonta Smith | 62.5 (-115/-115) | 61.5 (-115/-115) |
| Dallas Goedert | 47.5 (-130/+100) | 45.5 (-115/-115) |
| Quez Watkins | 11.5 (-110/-120) | 14.5 (-110/-120) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 11.5 (-110/-120) | 11.5 (120/-110) |
| Miles Sanders | 4.5 (-125/-105) | 4.5 (-125/-105) |
Notable line movement:
- Isiah Pacheco’s receiving yards prop bet moved up 3 yards to 15.5 since opening at 12.5
- Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop bet moved up 1 yards to 78.5 since opening at 77.5
Total Receptions, Receiving Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7.5 (-110/-120) | 6.5 (-155/+115) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2.5 (-150/+115) | 2.5 (-175/+130) |
| A.J. Brown | 5.5 (+120/-160) | 5.5 (+120/-160) |
| DeVonta Smith | 5.5 (+120/-160) | 5.5 (+115/-155) |
| Dallas Goedert | 4.5 (-140/+105) | 4.5 (-140/+105) |
| Quez Watkins | 1.5 (+115/-155) | 1.5 (-105/-130) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1.5 (-145/+110) | 1.5 (-155/+115) |
| Miles Sanders | 1.5 (+145/-190) | 1.5 (+150/-200) |
Longest Reception, Receiving Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 22.5 (-115/-115) | 23.5 (-110/-120) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 11.5 (-120/-110) | 12.5 (-110/-120) |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11.5 (-105/-125) | 9.5 (-115/-115) |
| A.J. Brown | 26.5 (-110/-120) | 26.5 (-110/-120) |
| DeVonta Smith | 23.5 (-110/-120) | 23.5 (-110/-120) |
| Dallas Goedert | 19.5 (-105/-125) | 18.5 (-110/-120) |
| Quez Watkins | 8.5 (-125/-105) | 10.5 (-110/-120) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8.5 (-110/-120) | 8.5 (-115/-115) |
Combined Rushing/Receiving Yards Prop Bet
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 68.5 (-115/-115) | 66.5 (-115/-115) |
| Jerick McKinnon | 44.5 (-110/-120) | 49.5 (-115/-115) |
| A.J. Brown | 72.5 (-115/-115) | 72.5 (-115/-115) |
| Miles Sanders | 70.5 (-110/-120) | 66.5 (-115/-115) |
| DeVonta Smith | 62.5 (-115/-115) | 62.5 (-115/-115) |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 33.5 (-115/-115) | 33.5 (-120/-110) |
| Quez Watkins | 11.5 (-110/-120) | 13.5 (-115/-115) |
Don’t Miss out on our Super Bowl Betting Recommendations
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) inc 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
- Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
- 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)
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