Wisconsin vs. Iowa, Current Betting Odds:
- Iowa -2.5 points
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Wisconsin vs. Iowa Best Bet Prediction:
- Wisconsin +2.5 points
Trust the better defense and the better rushing attack and play Wisconsin against the spread.
Wisconsin's Key Matchup on Offense
Luke Fickell has gone back to his program's roots and leaned heavily on the run game this year, but it's not a traditional Wisconsin rushing attack.
The Badgers have used quarterback Colton Joseph's athleticism to their advantage, leaning heavily on read-option plays that have kept defenses off balance.
Wisconsin has used the read-option on 24% of its designed runs this season, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt on those plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
All other designed runs have averaged 3.8 yards per attempt.
Although it's been a winning strategy for Wisconsin, that doesn't necessarily mean it will work against a strong Iowa defense.
The Hawkeyes have allowed just 4.1 yards per attempt against the read-option, ranked 38th in the country.
However, it's worth pointing out that 70% of Iowa's reps against the read-option came against Michigan's inept offense, which might be skewing the results.
Iowa was vulnerable to read-option plays last season, allowing 5.1 yards per attempt and ranking 66th.
Joseph's athleticism has been a critical part of the Badgers' success.
He leads Wisconsin with 402 rushing yards, excluding sacks.
If he can find success on the ground in this matchup, it could go a long way towards putting Wisconsin in position to pull off the upset.
Iowa's Key Matchup on Offense
As always, Kirk Ferentz wants to run the ball, but his predictable downhill run game does not look like the ideal way to attack this Wisconsin defense.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run-game matchup via Sports Info Solutions:
- Iowa: ranked 74th in yards before contact
- Wisconsin: ranked 7th in yards before contact allowed
- Iowa: ranked 9th in yards after contact
- Wisconsin: ranked 7th in yards after contact allowed
Fickell has built a playoff-caliber defense capable of slowing down anyone, and his Badgers will be facing an Iowa squad missing its starting running back in this game.
Hawkeyes leading rusher Kamari Moulton went down with a season-ending injury last week, forcing L.J. Phillips Jr. and Xavier Williams into larger roles.
Moulton's physicality will be what Iowa misses most, and it might be an irreplaceable skill set based on what's left on the Hawkeyes' depth chart.
Check out the number of broken/missed tackles forced by Iowa running backs per 20 carries this season, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Moulton: 6.0
- Phillips: 2.4
- Williams: 1.1
Based on what we've seen from the Hawkeyes backups, it's hard to imagine them finding much success against a Wisconsin defense ranked 11th in broken/missed tackle rate allowed.
Iowa ran into this problem just last week against Minnesota, which shut down the Hawkeyes' rushing attack and forced a more pass-heavy approach.
The result was 3 interceptions and another quarterback change.
Iowa will now be back to Hank Brown at quarterback, the team's original starter, after giving Jeremy Hecklinski a shot for two contests.
There's little reason to expect improved results, especially if Wisconsin can shut down the run game.
Final Thoughts on Iowa vs. Wisconsin Best Bets
The Badgers have arguably the best defense in the Big Ten, so let's take the points and play Wisconsin against the spread.
There's a chance for a letdown after the Badgers' big win against USC last week, but Fickell's defense looks like a unit worth trusting and one that is probably still undervalued by the betting markets.