The Super Bowl LVII matchup is set between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some of Jalen Hurts’s quarterback prop bets you should consider for the Super Bowl.
Consider the over on Jalen Hurts’s rushing yards prop
This prop has been a consistent winner against the Chiefs, so let’s take the over on Hurts’s rushing yards prop in Super Bowl XLII.
Excluding a couple of games that didn’t have a line on quarterback rushing yards, the over has been a winner against the Chiefs in nine of the last 10 games. The winners included some quarterbacks with higher lines such as Malik Willis (over 39.5 yards) and Bryce Perkins (over 43.5 yards).
Another way to look at the Chiefs’ tendency to give up rushing yards is with the metric opponent-adjusted yards allowed. Using data from TruMedia, we can analyze how many more rushing yards per attempt a defense gives up to quarterbacks relative to that quarterback’s average against all other opponents.
Based on this metric, the Chiefs are allowing 16% more rushing yards than expected to quarterbacks, which ranks 23rd.
Given Hurts’s playmaking ability and the Chiefs’ tendency to allow yards on the ground to quarterbacks, this looks like a good opportunity to bet the over on Hurts rushing yards prop in the Super Bowl.
Consider the over on Jalen Hurts’s passing touchdowns prop
In what should be a high-scoring game, take the over on Hurts’s passing touchdowns prop in Super Bowl XLII.
The Chiefs have not allowed a quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in the postseason this year, however, they did allow 11 of 17 starting quarterbacks to toss multiple touchdown passes in the regular season.
The list of regular season opponents who did not throw multiple touchdowns against Kansas City is as follows:
- Bryce Perkins
- Malik Willis
- Jeff Driskell
- Geno Smith
- Russell Wilson
- Jarrett Stidham
That’s not exactly a list of high-profile passers, so this comes as no surprise. And Wilson, who stands out as the most talented of the bunch, had only three games with multiple touchdowns 一 and one of those was against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth noting the Chiefs were heavily favored in most games featuring the quarterbacks listed above, which diminished the game’s total. The total for Super Bowl LVII is set to 49.5 points.
Kansas City has played 13 games with the total set to 47 points or higher, and the opposing quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns in 11 of those contests.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Miles Sanders
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
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Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
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It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
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