2023 NFL MVP Odds: Predictions, Favorites & Best Bets

Get the latest NFL MVP betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2023 NFL season.

All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

2023 NFL MVP Odds to Win

PlayerCurrent OddsOpening Odds
Joe Burrow+650+650
Patrick Mahomes+650+650
Josh Allen+750+650
Justin Herbert+900+900
Jalen Hurts+1000+1000
Tua Tagovailoa+1400+1000
Trevor Lawrence+1400+1400
Dak Prescott+1600+1400
Lamar Jackson+1600+1600
Aaron Rodgers+1600+2500
Justin Fields+2000+2500
Trey Lance+2500+5000
Brock Purdy+3000+2500
Geno Smith+3000+2500
Deshaun Watson+3000+3000

Who is most likely to win NFL MVP?

Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are currently tied as favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP at +650 odds. Followed by Josh Allen (+750) Justin Herbert (+900), Jalen Hurts (+1000), Tua Tagovailoa (+1400), and Trevor Lawrence (+1400).

Favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP

Patrick Mahomes to win MVP +650
Mahomes is in the prime of his career, and the Chiefs have won at least 12 games in all five seasons with Mahomes as the starting quarterback.

Mahomes has never finished worst than third in EPA/Play in any season. The Andy Reid and Mahomes combination is a good bet to be elite again.

» Bet it now: +650

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Sleeper Bets to win the 2023 NFL MVP

Deshaun Watson to win MVP +3000

Watson struggled in 2022. However, a full offseason to practice and prepare combined with the fact that his legal situation is behind him provides opportunity for significant improvement for the 27-year-old dual-threat quarterback.

» Bet it now: +3000

Justin Fields to win MVP +2000
Fields should be the benefactor of a much-improved team surrounding him as the Bears made significant upgrades through free agency and the draft.

The division could be up for grabs. The Vikings’ win-loss record could regress, and Aaron Rodgers now plays in a different division.

» Bet it now: +2000

NFL MVP Betting Trends

  • The last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks.
  • Since 2001, only 3 non-quarterbacks have won NFL MVP – all were running backs.
  • Since 2001, every NFL MVP winner was on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012.

When Should you bet on the NFL MVP?

If you’re betting on MVP favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way you’ll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.

When placing a future bet like the 2023 NFL MVP, an important concept to understand is the time value of money, the concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2023 NFL MVP bet will not be graded until February 2024, tying up funds wagered for nearly 10 months.

Does this concept mean no MVP bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes. Also, the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.

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