The 2026 NFL MVP odds are live, with Josh Allen opening as the early favorite at most major sportsbooks.
Sharp Football tracks this market weekly throughout the offseason and season, using analytics-backed analysis to identify the best betting value before lines move.
Below you'll find the current MVP odds board, our top contender breakdowns, and Sharp's best bet in the market.
2026 NFL MVP Odds to Win
| Player | Team | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +550 |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +650 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +1000 |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | +1100 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | +1400 |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | +1400 |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | +1500 |
Favorites to win the 2026 NFL MVP:
Josh Allen is the current favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP at +550 odds. He is followed by:
- Lamar Jackson (+650)
- Patrick Mahomes (+1000)
- Justin Herbert (+1000)
- Joe Burrow (+1000)
Best Bet to win the 2026 NFL MVP: Justin Herbert (+1000)
Two things likely need to happen for Herbert to be the 2026 NFL MVP.
The first is that the Chargers need to emerge as the clear best team in the AFC West.
While Patrick Mahomes has equal odds to Herbert as things stand in the MVP market, the bigger threat to the Chargers will likely come from the Broncos, who have one of the best rosters in the league.
Herbert playing like he did last season with a healthy Joe Alt is the second element of this theoretical MVP run.
In the four games with Alt healthy, Herbert was top 10 among quarterbacks in:
- EPA per dropback (5th)
- Yards per attempt (6th)
- Touchdown rate (8th)
- Passing yards (2nd)
- Passing touchdowns (1st)
Alt and Rashawn Slater are back, and the Chargers made changes on the interior of the line this offseason, as well.
The addition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator is a wild card.
He should help Herbert remain efficient, but there is a concern that Herbert simply will not get enough volume to put up the raw passing numbers required to win this award.
However, if the Chargers are as good as they look on paper, Herbert should be among the favorites all season.
NFL MVP Betting Trends
- The last 13 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks.
- Since 2001, only 3 non-quarterbacks have won NFL MVP – all were running backs.
- Since 2001, almost every NFL MVP winner has been on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012.
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