Get the latest NFL MVP betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2023 NFL season.
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
2023 NFL MVP Odds to Win
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | +650 | 650 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 | 650 |
| Josh Allen | +750 | 650 |
| Justin Herbert | +900 | 900 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1000 | 1000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1400 | 1000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1400 | 1400 |
| Dak Prescott | +1600 | 1400 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 | 1600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2000 | 2500 |
| Brock Purdy | +3000 | 2500 |
| Geno Smith | +3000 | 2500 |
| Justin Fields | +2500 | 2500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +3000 | 3000 |
Who is most likely to win NFL MVP?
Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are currently tied as favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP at +650 odds. Followed by Josh Allen (+750) Justin Herbert (+900), Jalen Hurts (+1000) and Tua Tagovailoa (+1400).
Favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP +650
Mahomes is in the prime of his career and the Chiefs have won at least 12 games in all five seasons with Mahomes as the starting quarterback.
Mahomes has never finished worst than third in EPA/Play in any season, the Andy Reid and Mahomes combination is a good bet to be elite again.
Sleeper Bets to win the 2023 NFL MVP
Deshaun Watson to win MVP +2800
Watson struggled in 2022, however, with a full offseason to practice and prepare combined with the fact that his legal situation is behind him provides opportunity for significant improvement for the 27-year-old dual-threat quarterback.
Justin Fields to win MVP +3000
Fields should be the benefactor of a much improved team surrounding him as the Bears will make significant additions via the draft and free agency.
The division could be up for grabs as the Vikings win-loss record could regress and Aaron Rodgers will likely be playing in a new division.
NFL MVP Betting Trends
- The last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks
- Since 2001, only 3 non-quarterbacks have won NFL MVP – all were running backs
- Since 2001, every NFL MVP winner was on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012.
When Should you bet on the NFL MVP?
If you’re betting on MVP favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way you’ll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.
When placing a future bet like the 2023 NFL MVP an important concept to understand is the time value of money. The concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.
Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2023 NFL MVP bet will not be graded until February 2024 tying up funds wagered for nearly 10 months.
Does this concept insinuate that no MVP bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes, also the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.
