Texas vs. LSU, Current Betting Odds:
- LSU -4.5 points
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Texas vs. LSU Best Bet Prediction:
- Texas +4.5 points
This should be a tight, low-scoring game, so let's take the points with Texas.
When Texas Is on Offense
Texas runs a relatively balanced offense under head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian.
Although Sark has led some high-powered offenses in the past, he's struggled to get this Longhorns offense rolling with Arch Manning at quarterback.
From a big-picture perspective, the issue has been a lack of explosive plays.
Texas has generated 20 or more yards on just 5.9% of its offensive snaps, ranked 100th.
That has been a shocking development considering the investment the team made to build around Manning, adding the best receiver in the portal (Cam Coleman) to pair with Ryan Wingo, while also adding Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers to the backfield.
One issue has been Manning's inaccuracy and lack of development as a downfield passer.
Take a look at the on-target rate of Texas quarterbacks on throws 15 or more yards downfield in recent years, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2026 Manning: 51%
- 2025 Manning: 49%
- 2024 Quinn Ewers: 60%
- 2023 Ewers: 61%
- 2022 Ewers: 50%
- 2021 Casey Thompson: 56%
- 2020 Sam Ehlinger: 57%
Manning continuing to perform at a level akin to freshman Quinn Ewers was not a development anyone expected in his fourth year in Sark's program.
If Manning can't consistently get the ball to his receivers, it doesn't much matter who Texas has running routes downfield.
To be fair, Manning did have one of his best performances of the year last week against Missouri, completing 8 of 14 throws at 10 or more yards downfield.
Don't assume something clicked for Manning, however, as Missouri's downfield pass defense has been shaky.
The week prior, Missouri allowed Arkansas' KJ Jackson to complete 9 of his 16 attempts at that depth, and the Tigers' 55 completions allowed at 10 or more yards downfield are the second most in the SEC.
LSU, on the other hand, has only allowed 29 completions at that depth, the second fewest in the conference.
Another issue for Texas has been the lack of pass protection, and the Longhorns appear to be at a disadvantage in that area again based on these opponent-adjusted metrics from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 78th in pressure rate allowed
- LSU: ranked 24th in pressure rate generated
One reason for Texas' pass-protection struggles has been the pro-style nature of Sark's passing attack, which requires Manning to hang in the pocket.
Texas quarterbacks have held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 61% of dropbacks, the 26th-highest rate.
This is problematic because it invites pressure.
Even the best offensive lines allow at least a 30% pressure rate on extended dropbacks, and Manning has struggled as a decision-maker against pressure.
Manning has been sacked on 24% of his dropbacks against pressure, ranked 119th out of 132 qualified quarterbacks per Sports Info Solutions.
That trend is especially concerning against an LSU pass-rush unit that has converted 31% of its pressures into sacks, the best rate in the nation.
When Texas turns to the run game, it will lean heavily on Raleek Brown due to a season-ending injury to Hollywood Smothers.
Brown has been more effective than Smothers all season, but it won't be easy to run the ball on LSU based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 74th in yards before contact
- LSU: ranked 6th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 66th in yards after contact
- LSU: ranked 95th in yards after contact allowed
The most concerning trend for Texas is LSU's ability to generate contact in the backfield.
LSU leads the nation in early-contact rate, hitting running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 57% of attempts.
That's problematic for the Longhorns' running backs, who have been stuffed for zero or negative yards 49.5% of the time they face early contact, ranking 126th in stuff-avoidance rate.
These trends have played a significant role in the success, or lack thereof, for both units, since negative plays in the run game create tough down-and-distance situations.
Check out the rate at which these teams see third-and-long situations:
- Texas offense: 21%, ranked 54th
- LSU defense: 32%, ranked 3rd
Those are concerning numbers for Texas, as Manning's inability to throw downfield has severely limited the Longhorns ability to handle third-and-long.
Texas has converted just 16% of its third-and-long situations, ranked 112th.
Manning also has the ability to do some damage with his legs, but it's not by design, making it harder to predict his impact in any given game.
Texas only uses the read-option on 14% of its rushing attempts (and only averages 3.2 yards per attempt on those plays), while 57% of Manning's rush attempts have been on scrambles.
Given all of these trends, it looks like Texas will need to rely heavily on its defense in this game.
If LSU can force Texas into a shootout, it could be a tough night for Manning and the Longhorns offense.
When LSU Is on Offense
Lane Kiffin is known for his high-powered offense, but he's struggled to get it rolling at LSU.
The Tigers rank 93rd in explosive play rate, gaining 20 or more yards on just 6% of plays this season.
Don't expect this to be the game where LSU's offense wakes up, as Texas' defense ranks second by the same metric.
Despite issues creating big plays, LSU's offense has remained efficient due to its ability to get the ball to its receivers in space on underneath routes.
LSU quarterbacks have thrown the ball five or fewer yards downfield on 51% of attempts, gaining 6.7 yards per attempt on those plays.
That's the eighth-best rate in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
This could be a winning strategy against Texas, which has not been as dominant at defending short, quick throws.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Texas is allowing 4.9 yards per attempt, ranked 50th.
One of the reasons for the mediocre performance in this area relative to the rest of its defense metrics is an inability to consistently tackle in space.
Texas ranks 66th in broken/missed tackle rate against the pass, which is a critical skill set when defending a scheme like the one run by LSU.
For LSU to run the best version of its offense against Texas, it will need to gain an early lead, or at least keep the score close.
LSU's offense works best when quarterback Sam Leavitt is able to get the ball out quickly, but when the Tigers fall behind and Leavitt is asked to hang in the pocket to take more shots downfield, things tend to fall apart.
When LSU quarterbacks have held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds, they've taken a sack or thrown an interception on 12.3% of dropbacks, ranked 79th according to Pro Football Focus.
This was an issue just last week, when Leavitt was forced to spend more time in the pocket while playing from behind against Alabama.
Against the Tide, Leavitt averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt on extended dropbacks while throwing an interception and taking 3 sacks.
It was a steep drop-off from his production on quick dropbacks: 87% completion rate and 9.3 yards per attempt.
A similar performance on extended dropbacks against Texas is likely based on these opponent-adjusted numbers on the pass-protection battle:
- LSU: ranked 35th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas: ranked 5th in pressure rate generated
Texas' pass-rush unit suffered a brief setback when Colin Simmons was injured, but Simmons returned to play 18 snaps against Missouri last week.
Simmons is not on the injury report this week, so he should be closer to full strength after that tune-up against Missouri.
This should worry LSU, who has a weak link on the offensive line in right tackle Weston Davis.
On true pass sets, which eliminates reps on screens and other quick plays, Davis has allowed a 10.6% pressure rate according to Pro Football Focus, which ranks 224th out of 304 tackles.
Despite these concerns for the passing attack, LSU likely will not be able to pivot to a more run-heavy approach based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- LSU: ranked 105th in yards before contact
- Texas: ranked 9th in yards before contact allowed
- LSU: ranked 58th in yards after contact
- Texas: ranked 12th in yards after contact allowed
Kiffin's spread offense typically has success in the run game by creating light boxes, which leads to more untouched yardage, so their poor yards before contact metric highlights just how much this offensive line has struggled in the run game.
Final Thoughts on LSU vs. Texas Best Bets
Since points will be tough to come by for both teams, let's bet on this being a one-score game and take Texas against the spread.
This feels like the type of game that could be decided by a field goal in either direction, so getting 4.5 points with Texas seems like the smart play.