While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers while staying up to date on the latest odds.
Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop Bet
Current line: 242.5 Passing Yards: Over (-125) /Under (-105)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 37.8%
- 2022 %: 41.2%
There will be a common theme here among the props for Hurts that we are not catching a lot of value compared to his career and 2022 hit rates reaching the overs for where his current Super Bowl production lies. There is a lot of projection into where these totals are set, but ultimately how you are going to approach these lines depends on how you are betting this game to go from a top-down perspective.
If you are in on the Eagles controlling and winning this game, then you are not going to find many positive lines here. If betting the Kansas City side to really push the Eagles or outright win, then there is added appeal to a few totals.
Hurts has hit this yardage over at lower than a 40% rate for his career (starts only) and reached this number in 7-of-17 starts this season.
If looking at the over, you need to be correlating that with either a Kansas City win or the Chiefs at least pushing the Eagles for the entirety of the game.
Hurts actually is second in the NFL in passing yardage per game in the first half of games this season (159.6 yards per game) but because the Eagles have not been pressed to keep passing often this season, 68.2% of the yardage Hurts has thrown for this season has come in the first half of games, the highest rate in the NFL.
Hurts has such a large disparity in first half passing yardage compared to after halftime that the next closest quarterback in the percentage of yardage to come in the first half of games is at 58.0%.
Kansas City has allowed nine different starting quarterbacks (47.4%) to go over this current line through the air this season.
One thing to consider here as well is how well the Kansas City pass defense has played entering the Super Bowl paired with how Hurts has played since returning from his shoulder injury. In the three starts Hurts has made since coming back, he has averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt while the Chiefs have allowed 5.7 yards per pass attempt over their past six games (third in the NFL).
Jalen Hurts Touchdown Passing Prop Bet
Current line: 1.5 Touchdown Passes: Over (-110)/Under (-120)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 43.2%
- 2022 %: 52.9%
Here is one of the few totals we have in which Hurts has cleared in over half of his games this season. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 9-of-17 starts this season.
The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in a league-high 12 games this season. The potential catch in that department is that Kansas City has not allowed multiple passing touchdowns in any of their past five games.
If looking to take an alternative angle playing on the latter date point there, Hurts also has six games this season with zero touchdown passes while throwing more than two touchdown passes just three times.
Jalen Hurts Interceptions Prop Bet
Current line: 0.5 Interceptions: Over (+115)/Under (-155)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 37.8%
- 2022 %: 29.4%
Hurts only has thrown an interception in five games this season, which is why the under is heavily implied here.
If you are interested in taking the over here and Hurts throwing an interception, you also want to tie that into a Kansas City victory.
Obviously, a Kansas City win can be correlated with takeaways (Hurts has thrown an interception in 7-of-12 career losses as a starter), but the odds of increased passing volume chasing points also provides more opportunities for a takeaway.
Hurts has averaged just 12.8 dropbacks per game in the second half this season, ahead of only Marcus Mariota (11.6 per game). Hurts has just 22 pass attempts trailing in the second half for the entire season.
The Chiefs have an interception in five straight games and at least one interception in eight of their past 10 games.
If you are on the Kansas City side here, there is value in tacking on a bet on Hurts throwing an interception to go along with a Chiefs victory while there is no real value in the under paired with an Eagles win.
Jalen Hurts Passing Attempts Prop Bet
Current line: 31.5 Passing Attempts: Over (-125)/Under (-105)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 37.8%
- 2022 %: 35.3%
This is another line that Hurts has not hit often for his career or this season, but has been heavily dictated by game scripts that the Eagles have been in this season.
Hurts is averaging 19.4 pass attempts per game in the first this season (seventh in the league) and 22.3 dropbacks per game in the first half (fifth) before those rate fall down to 10.6 attempts per game (32nd) and 12.8 dropbacks per game (32nd) after the break.
No team has led for more second half snaps this season than the Eagles while they have a 44.5% dropback rate while leading after halftime compared to a 62.7% dropback rate in the first half of games.
Opponents have a 71.2% dropback rate in the second half against the Chiefs and a 72.7% dropback rate when trailing after halftime versus Kansas City.
12-of-19 starting quarterbacks have gone over this current total against the Chiefs this season, including five in a row.
Jalen Hurts Passing Completions Prop Bet
Current line: 21.5 Passing Completions: Over (-105)/Under (-125)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 29.8%
- 2022 %: 29.4%
Hurts has gone over this current line just five times this season and 11 times in 37 career starts. Three of those games this season came against teams (Tennessee, Washington, and Minnesota) who were top-10 in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs paired with softer pass defenses.
The Kansas City run game has not been tested by hardly any average running games this season, let alone the best rushing offense in the league, which the Eagles objectively field.
Any more towards the over here needs to be paired with the outright notion that the Eagles get scripted out of the run game.
15 different quarterbacks have hit this over against the Chiefs as a carrot if supporting the Kansas City side outright.
Jalen Hurts Rushing Attempts Prop Bet
Current line: 10.5 Rushing Attempts: Over (-105)/Under (-125)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 35.1%
- 2022 %: 47.1%
Hurts has been all around this line all season long and the closest line we have that is just an outright average for his totals this season. He averages 10.9 rushing attempts per game.
He has gone over this total in eight starts this season and has at least nine attempts in 13-of-17 starts. As a bonus to leading all quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts (95), Hurts also is second in the NFL in kneel downs (21) as part of those totals.
The Chiefs have faced the fourth-most rushing attempts from quarterbacks (5.3 per game) this season.
Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Current line: 49.5 Rushing Yards: Over (-120)/Under (-115)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 48.6%
- 2022 %: 41.2%
Hurts has gone over this total seven times this season and just below a 50% rate for his career. Books have been making a living off bettors in this department as Hurts has gone under his rushing line in eight of his past nine games.
We are also paying a tax on the over since the Chiefs have been punished by quarterbacks on the ground to close the season.
Since their Week 8 bye, Kansas City is 31st in rushing yardage allowed per game to passers (34.0) while allowing the most scramble yardage per game (18.3) over that span.
The Chiefs have allowed over 25 yards rushing to four straight quarterbacks while allowing 40 or more rushing yards to Malik Willis (40), Bryce Perkins (44), Joe Burrow (46), Russell Wilson (57), and Jarrett Stidham (50) over that span.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Best Super Bowl Receiving Prop Bets: Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Miles Sanders
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Jalen Hurts
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
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This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
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It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
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