The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Bucs and Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 20.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 19.4 | 27 | Points/Gm | 23.0 | 17 |
| 24.1 | 0 | Points All./Gm | 25.0 | 0 |
| 61.2 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 12 |
| 62.2 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 9 |
| 5.4 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 25 |
| 5.2 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 45.41% | 13 | Rush% | 43.94% | 16 |
| 54.59% | 20 | Pass% | 56.06% | 17 |
| 46.35% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 39.97% | 6 |
| 53.65% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 60.03% | 27 |
- Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in each of the past five games, tied for the worst streak in the league.
- Tampa Bay is averaging 4.4 yards per play over their past seven games, 31st in the league.
- The Buccaneers have gained 10 or more yards on 16% of their plays over that span, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have trailed for 40.9% of their offensive snaps, 11th in the league and the lowest rate among teams with a losing record.
- Atlanta is averaging 6.0 yards per play on early downs (5th in the league) but a league-low 3.3 yards per play on third downs.
- The Falcons have converted 31% of their third downs, ahead of only the Titans (29.9%).
- The Falcons have allowed a league-high 34 points off turnovers since Week 10.
- Atlanta is the only team without a win (0-9) in games that they have trailed at any point.
- The Buccaneers have faced third and long (needing 7 or more yards) on 25.9% of their sets of downs, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield and the Tampa Bay passing game had a hard time in the rain on Sunday.
He completed only 14 of 30 passes (46.7%) for 122 yards (4.1 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
I don’t want to penalize Mayfield too significantly for the less-than-ideal passing conditions on Sunday, but this has been an ongoing trend as Mayfield and this offense have fought through injuries.
Over his past seven games, Mayfield has completed 57.7% of his passes (29th) for a league-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt and a 3.6% touchdown rate (27th).
A league-low 24.3% of Mayfield’s attempts over that span have resulted in a first down or touchdown.
Mayfield has completed 8.7% of his passes below expectations during that period, the worst differential in the league.
Tampa Bay has struggled throwing downfield.
Mayfield has now completed 40.1% (63 of 157) of his passes 10 or more yards downfield this season.
The only qualifiers for the league’s passer rating with a lower completion rate on those throws are Dillon Gabriel (38.8%), Cam Ward (37.5%), and Caleb Williams (37.3%).
From a positive stance, Mayfield is back to running more.
He rushed 6 times for 42 yards on Sunday.
Over the past month, he has added 9.9, 1.9, 2.7, and 4.2 rushing points to his totals to at least keep him in play as a mid-range QB2 for the large part of his downward swing as a passer.
The Bucs could get some combination of Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan back this week to boost this offense, but it is hard to vault Mayfield back into QB1 status on a short week.
Mayfield is more of a floor-based QB2 here.
When these teams played all the way back in Week 1, Mayfield only completed 53.1% of his passes for 167 yards (5.2 yards per pass attempt), but he threw 3 touchdown passes with 39 yards rushing to elevate his fantasy line.
We are going to need that type of touchdown efficiency and rushing floor if Mayfield remains sporadic as a passer.
The Falcons blitzed Mayfield 32.4% of the time in Week 1 (his 4th-highest rate of the season) and are second in the NFL with a 36.6% blitz rate.
Over the past seven weeks. Mayfield has a 50% completion rate and 4.7 Y/A against the blitz.
In Week 1, he was 6 of 10 for 45 yards against the blitz.
The Falcons have been boom-or-bust against the pass, however, so there is a path for Mayfield to run into efficiency, especially if the offense is healthier.
Over their past seven games, Atlanta has allowed a 67.7% completion rate (28th), 7.8 Y/A (26th), and a 6% touchdown rate (25th).
Kirk Cousins: Since returning as the starter, Cousins has been the QB15 (14.5 points) against the Saints, QB20 (13.4 points) against the Jets, and QB29 (2.5 points) against the Seahawks.
The current wide receiver room and offensive trust offer little path to upside.
If Drake London were to return this week, the needle would move a bit, but that is not something we are expecting since it is a short week, and we have not seen London practice since his injury.
Cousins is 31 of 64 (48.4%) for 320 yards (5.0 Y/A) with a 72.4 rating when targeting wide receivers this season.
Even in a blowout loss last week, the Falcons threw the ball 13% below expectations.
Over the past three weeks with Cousins, the Falcons have thrown the ball 12% below expectations (-11%, -11%, and -13%) and 5% below expectations on first downs.
This team does not trust the current version of the passing game.
If looking for a carrot to chase for Cousins as back-end QB2 in managed leagues or in single-game DFS, he was the QB1 (34.4 points) and QB3 (28.6 points) in his two games against Tampa Bay last season, throwing 4 touchdowns in each game.
We have not seen anything close to that version of Cousins this season, so I do not recommend it.
The Bucs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their past five games, but that was against Drake Maye, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Jacoby Brissett.
We cannot take much away from last week’s game in the rain against Tyler Shough, who threw for 144 yards (7.2 Y/A) but also ran for over 55 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Cousins will not be doing that on the ground on Thursday.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson: Robinson turned 22 touches into 94 yards in a tough matchup and poor offensive performance against a stingy Seattle defense.
He also fumbled in Seattle territory, adding another blemish.
This is another matchup where Robinson is a volume-based RB1 with upside as a receiver.
Tampa Bay has a 67.5% success rate (2nd) against running back runs, allowing a league-low 17.1% of those runs to result in a first down or touchdown.
Only 29.6% of the running back runs against Tampa Bay have gone for five or more yards (third).
They have a 74.6% success rate (4th) against outside zone runs, which account for 65.1% of Robinson’s runs, the highest rate in the league.
When these teams played in Week 1, Robinson rushed 12 times for 24 yards.
Tampa Bay has not had many hiccups this season as a run defense, but the two backs to hit 100-plus yards rushing against them this season had big-play ability in Jahmyr Gibbs (147 yards) and TreVeyon Henderson (136 yards), something Robinson has.
Where Robinson made an impact in Week 1 was as a pass catcher, catching 6 of 7 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown.
His receiving role has not been consistent with Cousins these past three weeks, receiving 10%, 22.6%, and 7.1% of the targets, but that is always in play for him as an out for fantasy.
Tampa Bay is 31st in receiving points allowed to running backs (11.8 per game).
Bucky Irving: Irving handled 17 touches for 81 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
There was not a lot of room for Irving as a rusher, running 15 times for 55 yards (3.7 YPC).
Rushing efficiency has been a thorn in Irving's side this season.
Out of 41 running backs with 100 or more attempts, Irving is last in success rate (25.2%), 40th in yards per rush (3.4 YPC), 37th in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.8%), and 35th in rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (23.3%).
The weather surely had something to do with the backfield distribution on Sunday, but Irving went from 73.1% of the backfield touches in Week 13 down to 45.6% on Sunday.
He did leave the game with an apparent ankle injury in the first half as well, but was able to return.
In the second half, we also saw Sean Tucker receive and convert a goal-line opportunity and mix in more, but Tucker only had one touch in the first half.
His usage was likely a blip due to that lower-body injury, but it is something to note on a short week.
The positive news is that Irving has still handled a high workload overall and increased his role in the receiving game.
After running a route on 33.3% of the dropbacks in Week 13, Irving was up to 50% on Sunday.
Irving has at least 17 touches in every game this season while finding the end zone in four of his six games played.
He has had a strong floor in his games played, finishing as RB16 or higher in every game.
Irving is a high-end RB2/fringe RB1.
After allowing 244 yards rushing to Jonathan Taylor in Week 10, Atlanta has bounced back against the run over their past four games, allowing 3.7 YPC to the Saints, Panthers, Jets, and Seahawks backfields with 1 rushing touchdown.
When these teams played in Week 1, Irving rushed 14 times for 37 yards (2.6 YPC), catching 4 passes for 8 yards and a touchdown.
Wide Receiver
More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Bucs | Thursday Night Football |
| Browns @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | Monday Night Football |