Falcons vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Falcons-Packers Week 3 matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Falcons vs. Packers Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Jordan Love

Love has opened the season with QB11 and QB21 scoring weeks.

He has thrown multiple touchdowns in each game but has also completed 50% and 55.2% of his passes.

Love has a 21.1% inaccurate throw rate through two weeks, which is ahead of only Malik Willis (22%).

To be fair to Love, he has faced Brian Flores and played Week 2 in wet conditions against the Jets.

He also had to deal with an offensive line that had question marks entering the season, even before working around injuries through two weeks.

Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele will miss the season after suffering a knee injury after 3 snaps on Sunday.

The unit struggled when Bako-Bewele missed time last season.

With him on the field in 2025, Love faced pressure on 37.3% of his dropbacks, compared with 44% when Bako-Bewele was off the field.

With him on the field, Love had a 1% interception rate and a 3.2% sack rate.

With him off the field, Love has a 2.1% interception rate and a 7.2% sack rate.

The Packers also had injuries to guards Aaron Brooks (22 snaps) and Donovan Jennings (14 snaps) on Sunday.

On a short week, the Packers will be making a handful of immediate adjustments.

When Love has been pressured to open the year, he has completed 33.3% of his passes (9 of 27) for 6.8 yards per pass attempt and an interception.

His 42.8 rating under pressure is 26th through two games.

When kept clean, Love has completed 63.6% of his passes (28 of 44) for 7.9 Y/A with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

His 118.4 rating kept clean ranks 11th.

The Falcons are currently third in the NFL in pressure rate (43.4%) despite an 18.5% blitz rate (29th).

Even last week, they were fifth in pressure rate against the Panthers (46.2%).

That said, they have had two different outcomes overall as a pass defense.

Given what we saw from Pittsburgh against the Patriots, Atlanta's Week 1 performance does not look as strong.

And even though Atlanta got pressure last week against Bryce Young, they still allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 23.5 passing points.

If the offense isn't putting the defense in so many poor spots due to the quarterback change, they could be closer to Week 1.

This is a boom-or-bust quarterback facing a boom-or-bust defense for two weeks.

Love has upside to reach QB1 territory, but I have a hard time slotting him as a top-12 quarterback in my rankings.

I prefer to use him as an upside QB2.

Michael Penix

Penix has been cleared to play, and the Falcons are immediately tagging him in to start.

If you have followed my work in the past, you know I am always cautious with quarterbacks returning from a long layoff.

Penix has not faced live defense in game conditions since his knee injury in November last season.

This is a new system.

I am hesitant to use Penix as more than a back-end QB2.

I'm looking for Penix to raise the floor for the surrounding skill players for fantasy gamers, because the first two games under Cooper Rush have been a disaster.

The bar is low for Penix to be better for this offense, even if he isn't providing a wealth of fantasy points in his first game.

Atlanta quarterbacks have a 38.2 rating, last in the league.

The next closest team is at 63.1.

Falcons quarterbacks have completed 55.6% of their passes (31st) for 5.3 yards per pass attempt (31st) with 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions.

Penix was inconsistent when he played in 2025.

He completed 60.1% of his passes (30th) for 7.2 yards per pass attempt (15th), a 3.3% touchdown rate (30th), and a league-low 1.1% interception rate.

Penix has preferred to push the ball downfield and outside the numbers, so he has more upside per target under center.

Over the past two years, Penix has averaged 8.9 air yards per pass attempt (2nd in the league) and has thrown the ball a league-high 49.4% of the time outside the numbers.

The Packers have faced Carson Wentz and Geno Smith in the rain, so we hardly have a good gauge of what their defense truly is.

The Packers have allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt (7th) but a 6.2% touchdown rate (23rd) through two games.

Falcons vs. Packers Fantasy Running Back Preview

Bijan Robinson

Week 1 gave us a false lead, as Robinson was swallowed by this offense's ineptitude in Week 2.

After 29 touches for 173 total yards and a touchdown to open the season, Robinson handled 19 touches for 81 total yards on Sunday against Carolina.

He played only 50.7% of snaps on Sunday, down from 76.7% in Week 1, because Atlanta shut things down in the third quarter.

There is still some volatility here given Penix has had so much time off, but just removing Cooper Rush adds a layer of confidence for gamers with Robinson as their RB1.

Atlanta is the only team in the NFL that has not yet run a play in the red zone.

With Rush on the field, Robinson was averaging 0.84 fantasy points per snap.

With Kirk Cousins, that rate was 0.88 points per snap.

With Penix, that rate was 1.02 points per snap.

The Packers have allowed a league-low 2.8 yards per carry to running backs through two games, but they have allowed 3 rushing touchdowns.

Running backs have 7 catches for 72 yards against them through two games.

Packers RBs

MarShawn Lloyd (14 snaps), Chris Brooks (22 snaps), and Kaleb Johnson (14 snaps) all got on the field last week in New York.

Lloyd started and scored his first NFL touchdown, but we had already seen him split touches with Johnson (5 each) in the first half.

Brooks did not have a touch on 6 snaps in the first half.

Lloyd lost a fumble in the fourth quarter while the Packers were trailing.

Brooks then played 17 of the final 21 offensive snaps, and Lloyd never touched the ball again.

At the end of the game, Lloyd had 8 touches for 26 yards.

Johnson had 8 touches (all runs) for 32 yards.

Brooks had 5 touches for 26 yards.

We know Brooks is safe as the passing-down back and in pass protection (he leads all running backs with 26 snaps in pass protection), but he has only 12 touches for 54 yards through two games.

Brooks is basically Green Bay George Holani.

Johnson (who also fumbled on Sunday) is already cutting into Lloyd's rushing opportunities, which makes things muddier, especially given the state of this offensive line.

All of these backs are touchdown-dependent swings best left for single-game DFS, but at least they are attached to a home favorite.

Through two games against Pittsburgh and Carolina, Atlanta has allowed 127 rushing yards on 38 attempts (3.3 YPC) to running backs.

They have allowed 10 catches for 39 yards to backs.

Falcons vs. Packers Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Drake London

London has been lost through two weeks, sitting with 6 catches for 80 yards (10 targets).

With Michael Penix returning, London draws a new spark as WR2 with added upside.

With Penix, London has averaged 2.98 yards per route (385 routes) with a 33.5% target rate per route (0.63 fantasy points per route).

With Kirk Cousins (551 routes), those rates were 1.89 yards per route and a 25.6% target rate (0.44 points per route).

With Desmond Ridder (504 routes), they were 2.22 yards per route, a 26% target rate, and 0.41 points per route.

With Marcus Mariota (309 routes), they were 1.72 yards per route, a 26.2% target rate, and 0.40 points per route.

Penix is also needed, given how London has opened the year.

London did get into the slot more last week (28.6% of snaps) than in Week 1 (16.1%), but he is playing more outside receiver in this new offense, with Olamide Zaccheaus (82% slot rate) and Zachariah Branch (60% slot rate) as slot-centric players.

Over the past two years, Penix has averaged 8.9 air yards per pass attempt (2nd in the league) and has thrown the ball a league-high 49.4% of the time outside the numbers.

With some downside based on Penix's long layoff, there is still upside, at least in raising London's scoring chances.

The Packers have allowed good lines to Justin Jefferson (8-92-2) and Garrett Wilson (5-57-1) to open the year.

Christian Watson (TRUST)

Watson has opened the season with games of 6-147-2 (8 targets) and 4-41-1 (11 targets).

Watson has played 82.6% and 93.8% of the dropbacks in the first two games, with target shares of 20% and 37.9%.

With Jayden Reed going down last week, this passing tree became more concentrated.

Tucker Kraft may need to block more like he did last week, which could funnel even more targets to Watson.

Watson isn't only playing full-time.

He's also taking on a more diverse role as a byproduct.

It has only been two games, but Watson has a career-high target rate on slants (21.1%).

His previous season high was 5.7%.

Watson also has 21.1% of his targets on hitches, which would also be a career high.

Those routes can raise a player's floor while still running a lot of posts (13.2%) and go routes (26.5%).

Atlanta is playing single-high on 64.6% of snaps, sixth in the league.

Watson has 45% of the early-season targets against single-high, with 2.11 yards per route run.

Atlanta nearly gave up a big game to DK Metcalf in Week 1 if he hadn't made his own miscues, then came back to allow 101 yards on 5 catches to Tetairoa McMillan on Sunday.

On top of that, A.J. Terrell was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday.

Matthew Golden

Golden has kicked off his second season with games of 6-95-0 (12 targets) and 4-58-0 (6 targets).

He has a drop in each game, but he has been creating separation.

Per Fantasy Points, Golden has 33.3% of their separation wins, which leads the team.

He also has 28.6% of first-read targets, leading the team.

Golden has not had as much early success against single-high looks (20% target rate and 1.81 yards per route run) as against two-high looks (27.9% target share and 2.74 yards per route), but he is locked into a full-time role in a favorable top-down matchup.

With Green Bay down so many targets, Golden is in play on the WR2/WR3 line with matchup appeal.

Atlanta has allowed 25 catches (21st) for 355 yards (25th) to wide receivers through the first two weeks.

Jahan Dotson

Dotson is only a dart to throw in single-game DFS.

But if you are casting a line on another Falcon pass catcher outside of the core pieces, Dotson has played most of the ancillary receivers.

He has run a route on 78.5% of the dropbacks and leads the team with 43.8% of the air yards.

Skyy Moore

Moore saw the biggest bump in playing time with Jayden Reed‘s injury, but he still played only 50% of the dropbacks, catching 2 of 3 targets for 6 yards.

Even for single-game DFS, he is a touchdown-or-bust player.

Falcons vs. Packers Fantasy Tight End Preview

Tucker Kraft

Kraft ramped up quickly by necessity.

After playing 66.2% of the snaps in Week 1, Kraft was on the field for 98.3% on Sunday.

Matt LaFleur even tongue-in-cheek suggested that Kraft could start on the offensive line.

He caught only 2 of 3 targets for 15 yards, but he went from a route on 47.8% of dropbacks in Week 1 to 84.4% in Week 2.

For a player with his per-target ceiling, that makes Kraft an upside TE1.

Atlanta has allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends through two games, along with 8.8 yards per target (22nd).

Kyle Pitts

Pitts has had a quiet start to the year.

Buried by the state of the offense, Pitts has 1 catch for 15 yards on 4 targets through two games.

Penix's return gives Pitts new life as a fringe TE1/TE2, although he doesn't have the tremendous career splits with Penix that London does.

On 348 routes with Penix on the field, Pitts has 16.4% of the team's targets with 0.28 fantasy points per route.

Also, only 2 touchdowns.

On 641 career routes with Kirk Cousins, Pitts had 19.1% of the team's targets, with 0.38 fantasy points per route and 7 touchdowns.

That is why I was more bullish on Pitts if Tua Tagovailoa was going to play early on.

That said, tight end is a low-bar position for fantasy.

This offense still doesn't have much target depth, so Pitts should get much more involved with the quarterback change.

More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: