Vikings vs. Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 2

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 2 matchup between the Vikings and Falcons on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 2 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Michael Penix: The upside theory entering the year with Penix is that the Falcons would have to throw a lot, and he could have increased mobility.

For one week, this came to fruition in terms of fantasy points.

Penix closed Week 1 as the QB10 (24.0 points).

He was QB15 in passing points per attempt (0.379), but that was elevated by 42 attempts, fifth in the league.

He did not run a lot, but Penix added 21 yards on the ground and his first career rushing touchdown.

Our primary concern for the Atlanta passing game entering the year was their moving parts on the offensive line.

Right tackle Elijah Wilkinson allowed 5 pressures and had 2 penalties, but Penix did his best at mitigating pressure, taking only 1 sack.

Penix completed 69.2% of his passes (7th) when pressured.

Atlanta was surely embracing their potential shortcomings up front as it deployed a much shorter passing game in Week 1 than what we saw when Penix took over at the end of last year.

Penix only averaged 6.9 air yards per throw in Week 1 (22nd) compared to the 10.2 air yards he averaged as a rookie.

We knew Penix would be challenged with the blitz, and they had a plan for that as well.

Penix completed 9 of 12 passes for 128 yards (9.8 Y/A) when blitzed, taking 0 sacks.

That will matter here against Brian Flores.

Flores was passive in the first half in Week 1, blitzing Caleb Williams on only 20% of his dropbacks.

In the second half, he sent a blitz 43.5% of the time, which the Bears had little answer for.

While Penix did sneak out a QB1 finish last week, he is QB2 for this matchup.

His rushing score boosted him.

Atlanta could be in dropback mode to aid Penix, but we are catching the Falcons on the road as an underdog with a 20-point team total.

The Vikings have a better pass defense as well.

After allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt in 2024 (12th), they allowed 6.0 Y/A in the season opener.

J.J. McCarthy: We expected McCarthy to have some struggles in his first career start.

That happened out of the blocks.

McCarthy was only 5 of 8 for 48 yards (6.0 Y/A) with 1 passing first down in the first half on Monday night.

He then threw a pick-six on his first pass attempt of the second half.

Down 6-17 after that turnover, McCarthy then went 8 of 11 for 95 yards with 2 touchdowns, adding a 14-yard touchdown run.

Putting it all together, McCarthy ended the week QB12 (20.1 points).

McCarthy has upside in Week 2 as a matchup-based QB2.

I am very curious what this Atlanta defense will look like in Week 2.

They were stronger than expected, but the Tampa Bay offense also did them a lot of favors.

The Falcons could outright be a surprise defense several weeks from now, but for now, I am hesitant to throw out that this could be a favorable matchup.

Atlanta had a 40.5% pressure rate (9th) after ranking 30th in 2024 (28.5%).

Despite the disruption, they still allowed big plays, something that was their undoing a year ago.

After ranking 31st in touchdown rate allowed in 2024 (5.9%), they allowed a 9.4% touchdown rate in Week 1 (29th).

Running Back

Bijan Robinson: Robinson had an interesting Week 1.

His season opened with an electric 50-yard touchdown reception where he looked dynamic in space.

We highlighted how quickly Atlanta was getting the ball out on short throws, which directly aided Robinson.

He ended up catching 6 passes for 100 yards with that score.

Robinson ended up on the field for 76.6% of the Atlanta passing plays, tied for third among running backs.

We love that Atlanta had a game plan for one of their best players to counter a shortcoming they had on the offensive and a blitz-centric opponent.

That should roll over into this matchup.

Where things got wonky, for Robinson and this offensive line, in particular, was in the run game.

Robinson rushed 12 times for 24 yards with a long of 6 yards.

He averaged 0.00 yards before contact per rush, hit at or behind the line on 10 of his 12 runs.

Without Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman, this line created no space on Sunday.

Robinson also shared more rushing work in Week 1 than where we left off.

He accounted for 54.6% of the backfield runs (RB28 on the week).

We also saw Tyler Allgeier get a run inside the 10.

Allgeier also found no room to run on his 10 carries (0.60 yards before contact per rush), to reinforce the connection to the offensive line.

It was only one week, but the way Robinson got over for fantasy was similar to what we had from De’Von Achane last year.

Achane’s rushing efficiency plummeted last year from his previous season due to the impact of the offensive line, but he made up ground in the receiving game.

I am not ready to run away with that as concrete after one week, but I am watching this offensive line performance early in the year to see how it impacts the offense.

For now, I am still keeping the door open for Robinson being able to overcome his conditions as an RB1.

For this matchup, it would make sense for Robinson to run into challenging work on the ground but be used as a pass catcher.

A year after Minnesota was 10th in rushing points allowed to running backs, they only allowed 53 yards on 17 runs on Monday night.

Vikings RBs: Minnesota used their backfield just as they told us they would in Week 1.

Jordan Mason played 28 snaps, turning 16 touches into 75 yards.

15 of his touches were runs, and Minnesota ran the ball on 60.7% of his snaps.

Aaron Jones played 23 snaps, turning 11 touches into 67 yards.

12 of his snaps were pass routes, and Minnesota ran the ball on only 39.1% of his snaps.

Jones caught 3 passes for 44 yards including a 27-yard touchdown.

With this type of split, both of these backs are FLEX options.

Mason is a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX, and Jones is getting a boost as an RB3/FLEX in leagues that reward receptions.

As a home favorite, Mason is in an implied game environment to boost his archetype.

Atlanta did play the run well in Week 1 (3.1 YPC), but I do want to see how they stand up outside of facing that Tampa Bay front.

Based on the matchup, Jones also runs into a favorable outlook.

After Atlanta was 31st in receiving points allowed to backfields a year ago, they allowed 5 catches and a touchdown in Week 1.

Wide Receiver

Drake London: London missed the final drive of the game on Sunday with a shoulder injury, but early reports are that he is going to play on Sunday night.

We will follow his status throughout the week to confirm, but approach things as if he will be on the field.

London had 15 targets on Sunday (35.7%), giving him 46 targets over his past three games with Penix under center.

London has posted over a target share of over 30% in all four starts by Penix.

The downside for London was that those targets turned into 8 catches and only 55 yards.

The quick passing game had an impact here as London only averaged 6.6 air yards per target.

He averaged 12.7 air yards per target with Penix a year ago.

We don’t want London to turn into 2023 Michael Pittman, living on a floor of short targets with limited upside.

Last week’s game plan could have been all by design to combat Tampa Bay and the right side of the line, but a similar approach could be taken in this matchup.

London did once again dominate the end zone opportunities in Week 1, drawing 2 of the 3 opportunities.

His shoulder injury came on the second one, a near catch that was reviewed and upheld as an incompletion.

With his injury, still feeling out the impact of the offensive line changes, and the likely return of Darnell Mooney this week, London is a volume-based option on the WR1 line, with added appeal in full-PPR formats.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson snagged 4 of 7 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown on Monday night.

Jefferson still occupied a huge target share (35%), but we did see some of the things in Week 1 that could impact him this season versus previous years.

We entered the year with Minnesota signaling that they want to run the ball more this season.

Maybe that loosens up as McCarthy develops, but in Week 1, Minnesota had a 49% dropback rate (27th) and threw the ball -4% below expectation.

Jefferson ran 24 pass routes.

To this point in his career, Jefferson has averaged 37.3 routes per game with a low of 36.4 per game in 2021.

We should expect a similar game plan with Minnesota as the home favorite.

We are going to let things breathe longer than one week, but this is something that was signaled this offseason.

I ultimately believe McCarthy will be good enough for Jefferson from a talent perspective, but that could take time and growing pains.

Jefferson is still an elite talent, warranting the early benefit of the doubt as a WR1 as we expand the sample size.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney was held out of the season opener, but he is practicing on Wednesday, an early signal that he can be back on the field this week.

Mooney was a solid pickup for Atlanta last season, catching 64 passes for 992 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Mooney had only had 493 and 414 yards with 3 total touchdowns over his final two seasons in Chicago.

His 1.89 yards per route run was a career high.

Because Mooney was behind London, he did ride a bit of a roller coaster for fantasy purposes.

He delivered three WR1 scoring weeks and six top-24 weeks, but he also had seven weeks as the WR50 or lower.

Mooney had a smaller sample with Penix.

He led the team in targets in Penix’s first start, catching 5 of 6 for 82 yards.

He then caught 2 of 5 targets for 37 yards in Week 17 before missing Week 18 with a shoulder injury.

The small sample with Penix and missed time this preseason makes him a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX.

Falcon WRs: If Mooney and London are both good to go on Sunday night, then the one-week elevation of Casey Washington could be short-lived.

Washington ran a team-high 46 routes on Sunday (97.9% of the dropbacks), which tracks given that he filled in for Mooney and London left the game.

Washington was only targeted on 13% of those routes, catching 3 of 6 for 33 yards.

Ray-Ray McCloud operated as the primary slot receiver in 11 personnel, playing 59.6% of his snaps from the slot.

McCloud collected 3 of 5 targets for 51 yards.

If Mooney and London are both up, then these are only options for single-game DFS.

Vikings WRs: There was not a lot to see here with Minnesota going run-heavy and Jefferson soaking up over a third of the targets.

Behind Jefferson, Jalen Nailor ran 23 routes (95.8%), catching 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards.

Adam Thielen ran 16 routes (66.7%), drawing 1 target but catching none.

Even as single-game DFS options, these are relatively thin bets, relying heavily on luck to score a touchdown.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson felt the sting of the new offense in Week 1, catching 3 of 4 targets for 15 yards.

Hockenson did run a route on 83.3% of the dropbacks. There just were not many of them.

Minnesota only ran the ball on 45% of Hockenson’s snaps.

This is something we were more concerned with for Hockenson than Jefferson, since Hockenson has been a player with a low ceiling and has relied on volume for his career.

This was only one game, but I had Hockenson as a back-end TE1 you are looking to cash in scoring opportunities with.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts had a solid start to the season.

He caught 7 of 8 targets for 59 yards.

Maybe we have lowered the bar to the point that feels good, but the bar at the tight end position itself is already so low that his box score was good for TE7 on the week.

Atlanta only ran the ball on 27.3% of the snaps Pitts was on the field, but he was on the field for 83% of the passing plays.

Mooney's absence boosted him, so we will see how he stacks up if Mooney is back.

Two of his catches and 18 yards came on the final drive with London off the field as well.

While Pitts did not blow anyone away, we believe that Atlanta is going to be pass-heavy.

If he can sustain hanging around the TE1 range when both London and Mooney are on the field, there should be no reason to avoid him in a deep pool of floor-based fantasy options.

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