The Cowboys acquired George Pickens from the Steelers for a third-round pick in 2026 and a late-round pick swap the following season.
This trade was rumored before the 2025 NFL Draft and makes sense for both teams.
The Steelers just acquired DK Metcalf and gave him a big extension, making it unlikely they were going to pay Pickens, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal.
Dallas had a massive hole behind CeeDee Lamb on the depth chart and had to find a No. 2 option in the passing game.
While it makes sense on the field, it remains to be seen how this trade will work out for both sides from a fantasy football perspective.
Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business
Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.
From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.
Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.
Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!
George Pickens 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Getting traded to Dallas will very likely be a good fantasy outcome for Pickens.
On the one hand, he is unlikely to command quite as large a share of the targets in Dallas.
While he was projected to be the No. 2 receiver in Pittsburgh, DK Metcalf does not profile as the same kind of target earner as CeeDee Lamb.
Metcalf has a career 22.9% target share over his six seasons with the Seahawks, and he has been targeted on 21.8% of his career routes.
Lamb has been targeted on 26.1% of his career routes, and he has been targeted on 29% of his routes over the last two seasons.
Lamb had a 27.1% target share in the 15 games he played last season, and he was dealing with a significant shoulder injury for a large chunk of those games.
That smaller share of the team targets for Pickens should be smoothed out by more passing volume in Dallas.
The Steelers were 23rd in neutral dropback rate a season ago and 26th in pass rate over expected (-6.3%).
That is not a surprise for an Arthur Smith coached offense.
The Falcons were dead last in pass rate over expected in 2023 and second to last in 2022.
Brian Schottenheimer is taking over as head coach for the Cowboys this season, with Klayton Adams filling his vacated offensive coordinator role.
Schottenheimer does have a history of run heavy offenses on his resume.
The Seahawks finished 28th in neutral dropback rate with him as OC from 2018 to 2020, but it is fair to assume Pete Carroll had a lot of say in that game plan.
The same is true of Jeff Fisher with the Rams and the Eric Mangini, Rex Ryan combo in New York.
You could also make the same assumptions with Mike McCarthy in Dallas, where the offense was far more pass heavy under Schottenheimer.
Dallas was eighth in neutral pass rate over the last two years, and Dak Prescott only played eight games last season.
The Cowboys were fourth in pass rate over expected in 2023.
So it is tough to know exactly what Schottenheimer wants from his offense, but his most recent example is far more pass heavy than what Pickens was going to get in Pittsburgh, and Dallas’ roster is set up to lean on the passing game.
Pickens had a 26.5% target share in his 14 healthy games with the Steelers last year, but he averaged 7.4 targets per game.
That number ranked 26th among qualified receivers last season.
Jake Ferguson had a 16.8% target share in his healthy games with the Cowboys last season, and he averaged 6.1 targets per game.
So there is a path to Pickens having a much smaller share of the targets but still seeing around the same total of raw opportunities.
The quality of those opportunities should also be better.
Pickens ranked 59th among 103 qualified receivers in off target rate last season, and he was 48th among that same group on passes that traveled at least 15 yards in the air.
Dak Prescott was fourth among qualified quarterbacks over the last two years in off target rate, and he was sixth among that same group in off target rate on throws of at least 15 air yards.
Not only is Prescott accurate throwing down the field, but he does it a lot.
Prescott over the last two years:
Most passing yards on 15+ yard go routes
Second most attempts of 15+ yard go routes
Pickens over the last two years:
Most receiving yards on 15+ yard go routes
Second most catches on 15+ yard go routes
Even with the quarterback issues, Pickens was 22nd in yards per route run last season, and he was 24th in ESPN’s open score over the last two years.
Pickens is a good receiver, got an upgrade at quarterback, got an upgrade in terms of offensive projection, and could command a similar number of targets even though his overall share of team targets is likely to decrease.
That is a good outcome for fantasy purposes.
CeeDee Lamb 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Perhaps the Pickens addition puts a small dent in CeeDee Lamb’s target projection, but there were already a lot of spare targets to go around in Dallas.
The top target earners at wide receiver behind Lamb last season:
Jalen Tolbert – 79 targets
Brandin Cooks – 54 targets
KaVontae Turpin – 52 targets
Jalen Brooks – 30 targets
Jonathan Mingo – 16 targets
Ryan Flournoy – 14 targets
Cooks is no longer on the team, and it would be good for Dallas’ offense if every receiver on that list, except perhaps Turpin, saw fewer targets in 2025.
Those six receivers combined for 1.13 yards per route run, which would have ranked 76th among qualifying receivers last year.
That is one spot above where Tolbert ranked individually.
Pickens obviously will not get all 245 of those targets, but it goes to show there are enough targets available to get Pickens looks without seriously denting Lamb’s target share.
Lamb should also benefit from having Pickens threatening the defense deep, as well as better quarterback play from a healthy Dak Prescott.
Lamb’s yards per route run and yards per target slipped a season ago in large part because he was forced to live closer to the line of scrimmage once Prescott was out for the season – he had a career low 7.8 air yards per target.
If he can maintain a 27%+ target rate per route while harnessing more of the efficiency he displayed in 2023, Lamb could compete for the overall WR1 this season.
DK Metcalf 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Pickens leaving does clean things up for DK Metcalf, who is likely to find himself in a similar situation as Pickens did last season.
As noted above, Pickens had a 26.5% target share when healthy last year, but he averaged 7.4 targets per game, which ranked 26th.
Metcalf should be set for a similar role given what is behind him on the depth chart.
Current Steelers WR Depth Chart:
- DK Metcalf
- Robert Woods
- Calvin Austin III
- Roman Wilson
- Scotty Miller
- Ben Skowronek
I am something of a Roman Wilson truther, so perhaps he establishes himself as the No. 2 option following a lost rookie season, but there is not much competition for targets behind Metcalf.
Of course, that assumes the Steelers do not make another addition to this room, though even a free agent like Amari Cooper would not seriously dent Metcalf’s target projection.
We are also still projecting Aaron Rodgers to be the quarterback in Pittsburgh, which seems like a done deal but is not yet official.
Rodgers did not take as many deep shots as Russell Wilson last year, but like Wilson, he mostly avoided the intermediate areas of the field.
Rodgers finished 29th in rate of throws between 11 and 19 air yards, and Wilson finished 35th among 36 qualified quarterbacks in that metric last season.
That suggests we could see more of the same for Pittsburgh’s offense in 2025 despite the quarterback change, and that is not great news for Metcalf.
Metcalf’s best seasons have come when he was used as a well rounded receiver and not just a downfield option.
31.5% of his targets last year traveled at least 20 air yards, the eighth-most in the league, and we saw both his target total and per game production fluctuate as a result.
Pickens was ninth in deep target rate last season.
On the bright side, Pickens was 17th among qualified receivers in slant route percentage, which is an area in which Metcalf can excel.
Over the last five seasons, Metcalf ranks eighth in yards per route run on slant routes among 179 qualified receivers.
Those types of targets can help smooth out his production even if the deep target rate is high.
Metcalf was 59th in slant route rate last season.
This is ultimately a good fantasy development for Metcalf because it solidifies his spot atop the depth chart and removes real target competition, but the offensive and quarterback concerns we already had for him remain.