Heading into the final weekend of fantasy football draft season, I had planned to put together a traditional mock with people I know from around the industry.
While those are always fun, they are truly mocks. There is no skin in the game for anyone involved.
I thought it would be more helpful to look at a real draft featuring people who spent a decent chunk of change to enter.
It is important to note this is not a best ball draft. It is a managed league with weekly waivers and lineup decisions, so it closely mirrors what you will encounter in your home leagues.
The biggest difference is this league does feature tight end premium scoring.
So while every other position gets 1 point per reception, tight ends get 1.5 points per reception.
That format does push up tight ends and change the order they are selected.
For instance, that extra half point per reception helps Evan Engram close the touchdown gap with some of the other TE1s.
This league also has just two starting WR slots along with two FLEX spots.
The value of going very receiver heavy at the start of a draft is diminished somewhat if you only have to start two receivers at a time and still have to start two running backs, but two FLEX spots does allow you to just use four WRs every week.
Because of that somewhat different lineup situation, my strategy here was slightly different than it has been in best ball drafts at Underdog, for example.
I will discuss all of those changes as we get through the draft.
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Round 1 Analysis:
- CeeDee Lamb
- Christian McCaffrey
- Breece Hall
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Tyreek Hill
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Bijan Robinson
- Justin Jefferson
- Garrett Wilson (me)
- A.J. Brown
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Sam LaPorta
In a vacuum, I would take A.J. Brown over Garrett Wilson, and I wish I had given how far Jalen Hurts fell.
Wilson does come with massive upside if he can get better quarterback play. Only Davante Adams has seen a higher share of inaccurate targets among high-target receivers.
More important for this situation, though, is I expected Saquon Barkley would come back around, and I did not want my first two picks to be a receiver and running back from the same team.
Sam LaPorta is the surprising name to see this high, but remember this is a TE premium league.
That said, the person at the turn got very aggressive with Dalton Kincaid at the very next pick.
That could work out if Kincaid ends up pacing the Bills in targets, which is well within the realm of possibilities, but it is still an aggressive valuation on Kincaid even in TE premium.
Round 2 Analysis:
- Dalton Kincaid
- Travis Kelce
- Jonathan Taylor
- Saquon Barkley (me)
- Trey McBride
- Puka Nacua
- De’Von Achane
- Travis Etienne
- Mark Andrews
- Cooper Kupp
- Isiah Pacheco
- Marvin Harrison
As mentioned above, I was targeting Saquon Barkley here, and he thankfully fell to me.
The concerns about Barkley are valid. Jalen Hurts gets a lot of carries near the goal line, which puts a dent into his touchdown and therefore fantasy upside.
But sometimes we try to make things too difficult.
Every back beyond the top three – and even them to some extent – can be torn down.
Jonathan Taylor has the same concerns about his touchdown equity. Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane have workload questions. Travis Etienne was not good last year and has a questionable offensive line. Isiah Pacheco might not get the passing game expansion we hoped to see with Samaje Perine in town. Kyren Williams is returning punts.
At the end of the day, Barkley is a good player on what we expect to be a good offense and playing behind what we expect to be a good offensive line. It does not need to be more difficult than that.
Round 3 Analysis:
- Drake London
- Chris Olave
- Davante Adams
- Jaylen Waddle
- Kyren Williams
- Nico Collins
- Mike Evans
- Malik Nabers
- Deebo Samuel (me)
- Lamar Jackson
- Evan Engram
- Rashee Rice
I drafted Deebo Samuel here before the Brandon Aiyuk extension, so I felt better about it at the time.
Even with Aiyuk under contract, though, there is nothing wrong with Samuel as the WR18. His efficiency as a receiver bounced back last season, and he has averaged a target on a solid 28.3% of his routes with Aiyuk on the field over the last three seasons.
The person who took Lamar Jackson might have regretted it since Josh Allen was the next quarterback off the board in the fifth round, but the notion of taking Jackson as the QB1 makes sense to me.
The Ravens spent the most game time leading in the entire league last season.
Baltimore ran just 85 offensive plays while trailing in the second half, easily the fewest in the league and the seventh fewest since 2000.
The 49ers were second with 121.
Baltimore’s dropback rate when leading in the second half was 44.3%, and they were almost always leading in the second half, helping to explain their low dropback number.
The Ravens were ninth in dropback rate in the first half of games last season and seventh in neutral pass rate.
There is reason to believe the Ravens will need to drop back more this season, and that could be big for Jackson.
He has averaged 0.68 fantasy points per dropback throughout his career.
He averaged 0.59 last season, just behind Brock Purdy (0.61) and Josh Allen (0.60) for the league lead.
Round 4 Analysis:
- Kenneth Walker
- DeVonta Smith
- Derrick Henry
- DK Metcalf (me)
- DJ Moore
- George Kittle
- Josh Jacobs
- Michael Pittman
- Rachaad White
- Kyle Pitts
- Jake Ferguson
- James Cook
This was a big fall for Derrick Henry, and he would have certainly been my pick if he slid just one more spot.
I discussed with Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor the idea that their overall upside is capped because their quarterback either has in the past or is very likely to vulture touchdowns near the goal line.
That is not a concern for Henry despite playing with a mobile quarterback.
Lamar Jackson has 29 career rushing touchdowns. 21 of those have come from five yards out or further.
One of his five rushing touchdowns from last season came from within seven yards of the end zone.
Gus Edwards handled 26 of the 53 goal-to-go carries for the Ravens last season with Jackson getting 10 of those looks.
Edwards was fourth among running backs in goal-to-go situations last season, and he led the league with 12 touchdowns in those situations.
As for my actual pick DK Metcalf, his reversion to more of a deep threat last season was something of a disappointment, but the addition of new OC Ryan Grubb is an overall positive for his and the entire passing game’s outlook.
Metcalf is currently being drafted right around his established floor. He has finished as the per game WR23, WR24, and WR25 in PPR scoring over the past three years.
Absent an injury, you are unlikely to go broke with Metcalf at this point in the draft, and the upside is there if Grubb improves the offense and uses Metcalf in more of a full-field role.
Round 5 Analysis:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Terry McLaurin
- Stefon Diggs
- Josh Allen
- Dallas Goedert
- Alvin Kamara
- Tee Higgins
- Joe Mixon (me)
- David Njoku
- Tank Dell
- Zay Flowers
Josh Allen as the QB3 is not something that will happen in many drafts this weekend, and it is also unlikely he will be available again in the fifth round.
There are certainly reasons for concerns about Allen and the Buffalo offense as a whole. His top two receivers are gone, no established options were added to replace them, and the Bills leaned heavily into the run after Joe Brady took over the coordinator job last season.
Allen was 18th in passing fantasy points per game under Brady, a run that coincides with Stefon Diggs falling off a cliff.
Even so, Allen was still the QB2 under Brady because he ran more and scored 8 rushing touchdowns over that span.
Perhaps those touchdown totals come down some, but Allen is insulated as well as any quarterback from a down passing year because of his rushing ability.
That is not true of Patrick Mahomes, which adds more risk for him as we saw last season even if we expect a bounceback for the Kansas City passing game.
I normally would not take a second running back this early after getting one in the first two rounds, but this league only has two receiver spots to go along with two FLEX spots.
I still want to have receivers in those FLEX spots more often than not, but only having to start two receivers did elevate that second running back position more for me than in three WR leagues.
Round 6 Analysis:
- C.J. Stroud
- Amari Cooper
- George Pickens
- Brock Bowers (me)
- David Montgomery
- Diontae Johnson
- Chase Brown
- Christian Kirk
- Chris Godwin
- Aaron Jones
- Jalen Hurts
- D’Andre Swift
Tight end might end up being my undoing in this format, but at no point in the draft did I want to reach for the tight ends available.
I did make a calculated gamble that Evan Engram would get back to me in the fourth round given how the drafters at spots 11 and 12 began their drafts, but that did not happen.
That left me with Brock Bowers in the sixth, a pick that I think represents good value but does put me in a risky position in a league with so many rostered tight ends.
Bowers is a rookie tight end – last season aside, TEs traditionally struggle their first year – who is already dealing with an injury and has two target earners competing with him in the passing game.
That passing game is currently being run by Gardner Minshew, and the coaching staff seems to want to run the ball as much as possible.
All of that said, Bowers has as good a profile as any rookie tight end we have seen, and at this point in the draft, I had to take my shot.
I am team Chase Brown. Heck, I have been driving the Chase Brown bus since last year.
But RB19 is…aggressive.
And maybe it works out, but he would have been available in the next round. Opportunity costs matter.
Round 7 Analysis:
- Tony Pollard
- James Conner
- Calvin Ridley
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Zamir White
- Xavier Worthy
- Kyler Murray
- Najee Harris
- Christian Watson (me)
- Javonte Williams
- Anthony Richardson
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Christian Watson has been a pretty consistent target for me all draft season.
There were 159 passing plays last season in which Green Bay had all of Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed on the field at the same time.
On those plays, Watson led the team with a 25.9% target share and 2.11 yards per route run.
He was second on the team in end zone targets including the playoffs despite running a route on 43.1% of the team dropbacks.
Health is a big question mark, but if the hamstrings hold up, he should lead the Packers’ receiving corps in fantasy scoring given his usage.
That said, this pick was a mistake.
Anthony Richardson fell way below ADP, and I greedily tried to let him go around the turn so I could take Watson.
Richardson has question marks entering the season. There is no way around that. But he also has the dual-threat ability and specifically the rushing touchdown potential that leads to overall QB1 seasons.
Richardson is a risk, but the potential reward is literally the best quarterback in fantasy.
This round is the running back dead zone.
I have drafted a lot of James Conner this offseason, but that came when he was at a much lower price.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Zamir White are players I have not drafted on any of my teams.
White is a two-down player on a team we do not expect to be in positive game script very often. That is a very fragile fantasy situation.
Stevenson has more outs despite being in what likely will be the worst offense in the league because we have seen him catch passes before, but he has not been particularly efficient doing that and now has to compete with Antonio Gibson.
Round 8 Analysis:
- Tyjae Spears
- Raheem Mostert
- Keenan Allen
- Keon Coleman (me)
- Rome Odunze
- Jonathon Brooks
- Joshua Palmer
- Dalton Schultz
- Brian Thomas
- Jayden Reed
- Devin Singletary
- Hollywood Brown
I was skeptical of Keon Coleman earlier in the draft season, but I have gone all in after seeing him be used as a seemingly every-down player in the preseason.
Coleman has questions to answer about his ability to consistently get open in the NFL, but he could be walking into a major role in the scoring area.
Gabe Davis (15) and Stefon Diggs (10) combined for 64.1% of Buffalo’s targets into the end zone last season.
Davis (5) and Diggs (3) combined for 33.3% of their targets in goal-to-go situations.
Coleman’s profile is the best fit for that kind of role among the current Buffalo pass catchers.
Round 9 Analysis:
- Pat Freiermuth
- Ladd McConkey
- Jordan Love
- Jaylen Warren
- Courtland Sutton
- Jerome Ford
- Brian Robinson
- Blake Corum
- Zack Moss (me)
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Austin Ekeler
- Jordan Addison
As much as I have made fun of “punt return gate” for Kyren Williams, it is certainly fair to question his overall role in the offense if the coaching staff is willing to use him as a returner.
That does make me more interested in Blake Corum, whose ADP has not spiked as much as I expected with all of the buzz.
I would have taken Corum if he fell another pick, but Zack Moss is a fine pick in this range.
As mentioned above, I am a big Chase Brown believer, but this is a game of probabilities.
I think it is more likely Brown ends up as the back you want in Cincinnati, but the shift in ADP we have seen for both players probably overstates that likelihood even if I am right.
Moss is coming off a decent season and probably profiles better as a short-yardage back than Brown, which is a large chunk of how Joe Mixon earned his fantasy value in recent seasons.
Over the last three seasons, Mixon was easily first in goal-to-go carries among running backs with 74 – 10 more than Moss’ former teammate Jonathan Taylor.
34 of those carries came from two yards or closer, also the most among running backs in that span.
Moss was solid in short-yardage situations last season, converting 68.8% of his third and short opportunities.
Round 10 Analysis:
- J.K. Dobbins
- Jameson Williams
- Tyler Conklin
- Jayden Daniels (me)
- T.J. Hockenson
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Cole Kmet
- Khalil Shakir
- Rico Dowdle
- Romeo Doubs
- Isaiah Likely
- Luke Musgrave
While I made a mistake with Richardson, Jayden Daniels is a good consolation prize that comes with a lot of the same positives as Richardson.
Daniels rushed for 60.1 yards per game over his collegiate career with 34 touchdowns, registering a 96th-percentile career rushing score.
He was also much better as a passer in college than Richardson, which helps us feel more confident in his potential floor.
The other thing working in his favor is the offense.
While Kliff Kingsbury does not have the best reputation after his time with the Cardinals, he did have some success in Arizona.
Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Cardinals were eighth in points per drive, 12th in yards per play, and 11th in EPA per play.
All of those would be a big step up from where the Commanders were last season.
Over those two years, the Cardinals were fifth in total pace and first in no huddle usage.
The Commanders were 17th in pace last season and even worse when accounting for game script.
More offensive success and a faster pace would be a great outcome for Daniels and the rest of Washington’s skill players.
Round 11 Analysis:
- Jaylen Wright
- Gus Edwards
- Joe Burrow
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Tyler Allgeier
- Caleb Williams
- Jerry Jeudy
- Dak Prescott
- Trey Benson (me)
- Brock Purdy
- Chuba Hubbard
- Nick Chubb
One of the reasons I was high on James Conner earlier in the offseason was how good the Arizona run attack was in 2023.
Despite not having a functional passing game for a large stretch of last season, Arizona running backs finished fourth in yards per carry and third in EPA per rush among all NFL teams.
Conner himself was seventh in yards per carry (5.0), sixth in explosive run rate (14.9%), and second in yards after contact per rush (3.93) among 68 qualified running backs.
Conner also missed four games last season, which is something he has regularly done throughout his career. The veteran has never played more than 15 games in a season and has averaged 13 throughout his career.
Third-round rookie Trey Benson is next up behind Conner, and he has an explosive profile that could take advantage if the Cardinals can replicate their run game success from last season.
Benson is the kind of later round running back to target.
Round 12 Analysis:
- Bucky Irving
- Darnell Mooney
- Braelon Allen
- Ty Chandler (me)
- Tyler Lockett
- Brandin Cooks
- Jared Goff
- Jakobi Meyers
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Rashod Bateman
- Jordan Mason
Ty Chandler fits in a similar mold to Trey Benson in that he is playing behind a veteran with injury concerns.
Unlike Benson, we are not as excited about the Vikings’ running game, which has been abysmal including with Chandler running the ball in recent seasons.
Over the last two seasons, the Vikings are 23rd in yards per carry and 29th in negative run rate on running back runs.
At least some of those struggles can be attributed to the offensive line, but they were a reasonable 12th in yards before contact on running back runs and finished 19th in ESPN’s run block win rate last season.
Chandler had more success than the other backs on the roster last season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry despite a lackluster 8.8% explosive rate on 102 carries.
More important for our purposes for late-round RB picks, he looks like the clear No. 2 for the Vikings.
Round 13 Analysis:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Aaron Rodgers
- Zach Charbonnet
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Kimani Vidal
- Tucker Kraft
- Hunter Henry
- Ray Davis
- Rashid Shaheed (me)
- Curtis Samuel
- Antonio Gibson
- Adonai Mitchell
Rashid Shaheed has been and remains underpriced for the upside he has in this offense.
Not only do we expect his usage to make more sense under the new offensive coaching staff – fewer low probability deep routes and more play action and pre-snap motion – but Shaheed was also a target earner with Michael Thomas off the field last season.
He was targeted on 21.2% of his routes run without Thomas on the field (193 routes) compared to only a 14.3% rate when Thomas was on the field (238 routes).
Round 14 Analysis:
- MarShawn Lloyd
- Justin Herbert
- NYJ Team Defense
- Gabe Davis (me)
- Mike Williams
- Matthew Stafford
- Harrison Butker
- Cade Otton
- Juwan Johnson
- Khalil Herbert
- DAL Team Defense
- DeMario Douglas
Gabe Davis is also on that list of receivers with more floor and upside than their current draft cost suggests.
Davis has not been a consistent target earner in the NFL – perhaps he should get something of a pass for that playing with Stefon Diggs – but he has been a primary weapon in the scoring area.
Calvin Ridley left a lot of open opportunities in that area of the field. He accounted for a league-high 41.3% of the Jacksonville red zone targets last year and 52.2% of their targets into the end zone.
For his career, Davis has converted 40.0% of his 55 end zone targets for touchdowns.
Davis is going to be on the field and can fill an open and high-value fantasy role in Jacksonville’s offense.
That is worth a shot in the 14th round.
Round 15 Analysis:
- Brandon Aubrey
- Michael Wilson
- Justin Tucker
- Audric Estime
- Noah Fant
- Xavier Legette
- Jermaine Burton
- Kirk Cousins
- Deshaun Watson (me)
- Adam Thielen
- Josh Downs
- Marvin Mims
There is no safety in my quarterback room.
Jayden Daniels is a rookie quarterback in a questionable offense, and Deshaun Watson has been either suspended, hurt, or bad for his entire time in Cleveland.
He is also hurt right now with questions about his Week 1 status.
It has to be noted, however, that even the awful passing stats version of Watson last season was a fantasy viable player.
Watson was inside of the top 10 fantasy scorers in three of his five full games last season.
He added 4.0 rushing points per game those weeks with 28.4 yards on the ground per contest.
He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in those weeks, which would have been QB13 on the season.
The Browns also added receiver help in Jerry Jeudy this offseason, and there is a chance Watson gets back to the passer we saw early in his career in Houston.
Even if that does not happen, though, we have already seen Watson be a usable fantasy player in Cleveland.
Round 16 Analysis:
- Kendre Miller
- Ben Sinnott
- Younghoe Koo
- Colby Parkinson (me)
- Demarcus Robinson
- Mike Gesicki
- Carson Steele
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy
- Roschon Johnson
- Zach Ertz
- BAL Team Defense
Like at quarterback, there is no safety in my tight end room, but I am very happy to walk away from this draft with Colby Parkinson as my TE2.
Parkinson was lost in the Seattle tight end rotation over the last two years, but he is sixth among qualifying tight ends in yards per target over that span.
He is seventh in fantasy points per target over that span.
Parkinson did not play at all in the preseason, which is the norm for Rams starters, while Davis Allen played 38 snaps and Hunter Long played 33.
It seems clear Parkinson is the starter for the Rams, and he has been good on a per target basis thus far in his career.
That makes him very interesting as the TE26.
Round 17 Analysis:
- Greg Dulcich
- Jake Moody
- Jonnu Smith
- Jalen McMillan
- Will Levis
- Emanuel Wilson
- PIT Team Defense
- Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Dalvin Cook (me)
- Malik Washington
- SF Team Defense
- Trey Sermon
Look…I am not happy about drafting Dalvin Cook, who has not shown a lot of great play in the last couple of seasons.
Cook’s explosive run rate slipped in 2022, and he was not good across the board for the Jets last season.
That said, the Cowboys bringing him in when they did suggests a level of dissatisfaction with the duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle.
Cook will probably end up on the waiver wire, but there is at least a chance he turns into the starter in Dallas, and that is worth a shot at this point in the draft.
Round 18 Analysis:
- Elijah Moore
- Quentin Johnston
- Will Shipley
- Jalen Tolbert (me)
- CLE Team Defense
- Cam Akers
- Tank Bigsby
- Ka’imi Fairbairn
- Jason Sanders
- Andrei Iosivas
- Tyler Bass
- Samaje Perine
The Dallas theme continues here with Jalen Tolbert.
This draft pick is more of a bet against Brandin Cooks than it is one on Tolbert, who has commanded just 39 targets across 25 games through two seasons.
This Cowboys offense is bare behind CeeDee Lamb and has been consistently good over the last several seasons.
If Tolbert can become a piece of that, he might be able to return some value here.
Round 19 Analysis:
- Dawson Knox
- BUF Team Defense
- Michael Mayer
- Justin Fields
- Luke McCaffrey
- Greg Dortch
- Cameron Dicker
- Evan McPherson
- CIN Team Defense (me)
- Alexander Mattison
- Justice Hill
- HOU Team Defense
I’m not sure why people in this draft were taking defenses before the second to last round and then kickers before the last round, but they were.
I ended up with the team playing the Patriots in Week 1, which is a good place to be.
Of the non-DST picks, Justin Fields feels like a better pick in best ball formats than he does in managed leagues.
The roster churn in a managed league could force Fields off the roster before he can take over the starting job, which I expect to happen at some point given what we have seen from Russell Wilson over the last several years.
Round 20 Analysis:
- Jason Myers
- Matt Gay
- Jahan Dotson
- Jake Elliott (me)
- Jamaal Williams
- Dylan Laube
- WAS Team Defense
- KC Team Defense
- SEA Team Defense
- LAC Team Defense
- Hayden Hurst
- Jordan Whittington
Even in deeper leagues like this, I see no reason to reach for a kicker or keep two of them on my roster. It is easily the most streamable position.
For this particular league, lineups do not have to be set until Sunday morning, meaning I can drop Elliott for a different kicker if he has an off game on Friday night in Brazil.
There are a couple of interesting names in this final round.
Jamaal Williams is one of my favorite RB targets in the later rounds. He is coming off an awful season, but Alvin Kamara has also struggled of late, and Kendre Miller can’t stay on the field.
The bear case is easy to make given his recent struggles and the presence of Taysom Hill to steal goal line work even if Kamara gets hurt, but that is why he is a last-round pick.
Jordan Whittington consistently earned buzz this preseason and may unseat Demarcus Robinson for the WR3 job, a role that is always on the field in the Rams’ 11 personnel heavy offense.
More importantly, the injury uncertainty around Puka Nacua opens the possibility Whittington could be even more than that early in the season.