- There were just four running backs that averaged 20 or more touches per game last season, tied for the fewest in an NFL season over the past 30 years.
- Derrick Henry led the NFL with 280 rushing attempts. That was the first time the league leader had fewer than 300 rushing attempts in a season since 1990.
- Running back targets per game have now dropped from the season prior in six straight seasons.
As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2024 fantasy season, we are taking a top-down look at production for each fantasy position.
On Monday, we kicked things off by looking at how offenses have lagged as a whole across the league over the past two seasons.
We also dug into trends occurring within the quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver positions.
Now, let’s take a look at the running backs.
League RB Usage Since 2010:
| Year | Tch/Gm | RuAtt/Gm | RuTD/Gm | Tgt/Gm | Rec/Gm | ReTD/Gm | Stnd./Gm | PPR/Gm | LG. TCH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 52.4 | 43.2 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 33.7 | 43.0 | 54.0% |
| 2022 | 53.2 | 43.7 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 0.4 | 35.7 | 45.2 | 54.6% |
| 2021 | 53.6 | 43.5 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 36.5 | 46.6 | 54.8% |
| 2020 | 53.3 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 37.6 | 47.5 | 53.4% |
| 2019 | 54.3 | 43.8 | 1.4 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 0.4 | 37.1 | 47.7 | 56.3% |
| 2018 | 53.6 | 42.8 | 1.4 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 0.5 | 37.9 | 48.7 | 55.4% |
| 2017 | 56.7 | 45.9 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 36.4 | 47.2 | 58.9% |
| 2016 | 54.6 | 44.8 | 1.4 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 36.8 | 46.7 | 56.3% |
| 2015 | 55.8 | 45.2 | 1.1 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.6 | 57.1% |
| 2014 | 55.6 | 45.8 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.0 | 57.2% |
| 2013 | 56.7 | 46.6 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 0.3 | 36.4 | 46.5 | 58.1% |
| 2012 | 56.1 | 47.1 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 0.2 | 35.6 | 44.6 | 58.0% |
| 2011 | 56.5 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 45.9 | 59.2% |
| 2010 | 57.1 | 47.5 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 46.1 | 59.9% |
2023 was a significant hit to the running back position, continuing a few ongoing downward trends.
As a whole, backfields accounted for their fewest touches, targets, and fantasy points per game.
The position had its fewest rushing attempts per game in any season in the table outside of 2018 while scoring its fewest number of rushing touchdowns per game outside of 2015.
Running backs scored 333 touchdowns on the ground last season. That was 20 fewer than they scored in 2022 and their fewest in a season since 2017.
The 94 receiving touchdowns for the position were the fewest since 2013.
In the touch department, backfields accounted for 54.0% of the league-wide touches on offense. That is the second-lowest rate above while the bottom six seasons in share of the league’s touches are all from the past six seasons.
There were just four running backs that averaged 20 or more touches per game last season. While an arbitrary number, that matches the 2022 season for the fewest in an NFL season over the past 30 years.
Derrick Henry led the NFL with 280 rushing attempts.
That was the first time the league leader had fewer than 300 rushing attempts in a season since 1990.
It was the fewest number of rushes that the league leader has had in a season since 1982, which was a 9-game regular season due to a strike.
You have to go back to 1974 to find a full season in which the league leader in rushes had fewer than last season, and even then, that was a 14-game season while Henry played in all 17 games.
Since the NFL expanded to the 17-game season, we have only had an average of six running backs per season reach 300 overall touches while no back has hit 400 touches in a season despite the added game.
Running backs still account for the most collective use among all fantasy skill positions, but since so much of their volume is filled with the least effective source of fantasy production (rushing attempts), we have seen the position shed points per game from the season prior in each of the past five seasons paired with that usage decline.
Yesterday we highlighted how quarterbacks continue to increase their leaguewide share of the running game.
There is still no end in sight for how when the apex of that usage is capped. We continue to see the position evolve around athleticism and continue to get more athletes funneled into the league at the position that can use their legs to go along with passing acumen.
With quarterback rushing remaining on the rise, running backs have seen their number of opportunities slowly get shaved in that area.
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Running Back Share of League Rushing Attempts:
| Year | RB Att.% |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 80.4% |
| 2022 | 80.1% |
| 2021 | 81.7% |
| 2020 | 80.8% |
| 2019 | 83.7% |
| 2018 | 82.6% |
| 2017 | 85.4% |
| 2016 | 86.0% |
| 2015 | 85.9% |
| 2014 | 85.6% |
| 2013 | 85.9% |
| 2012 | 86.6% |
| 2011 | 86.4% |
| 2010 | 87.4% |
Running backs are still accounting for 80% of the league’s rushing attempts, but we have a significant decrease compared to where we were in 2010, which aligns with the chart we displayed yesterday showcasing the rise of quarterback runs.
With quarterback runs, offenses can equalize and create a numbers advantage against the defense.
With that, it is no surprise that we have seen the success of quarterback runs warrant their spike in incorporation into NFL game plans.
RB Receiving Usage Rates
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | RB FF REPT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18.6% | 21.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 15.2% |
| 2022 | 19.2% | 22.1% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 17.4% |
| 2021 | 19.5% | 22.5% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 17.9% |
| 2020 | 19.2% | 21.6% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| 2019 | 20.6% | 23.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 18.8% |
| 2018 | 21.1% | 24.0% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 19.2% |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 25.4% | 18.3% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| 2016 | 18.9% | 22.0% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 17.5% |
| 2015 | 20.1% | 23.4% | 16.9% | 13.2% | 18.8% |
| 2014 | 19.6% | 22.5% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% |
| 2013 | 19.7% | 23.3% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 17.7% |
| 2012 | 18.1% | 21.3% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 16.1% |
| 2011 | 19.4% | 22.9% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 17.3% |
| 2010 | 19.7% | 23.5% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 17.9% |
When we talked about league trends on Monday, we covered how NFL defenses were forcing offenses into condensed passing.
The league’s depth of target has been at an all-time low the past two seasons while we are seeing the highest rate of passes thrown at or behind-the-line scrimmage in the modern era.
Surely, that meant that running backs benefited from this development in the receiving game, right?
Since that spoiler has been alerted in the open, it, did not.
For fantasy football, a target for a running back has had 2.5 times more value than a rushing attempt in PPR formats over that sample while having 1.5 times more value than a rush in standard scoring settings.
Running back targets per game have now dropped from the season prior in six straight seasons.
Even accounting for the drag in counting stats coming from depressed offense the past two seasons, running backs accounted for the lowest share of the league’s targets, receiving yardage, and fantasy points out of the receiving game over the entire sample above.
2023 was a precipitous drop as well in those rates.
There have only been nine total running back seasons since the NFL went to 17 games in which a running back accounted for 15% or more of his team’s targets.
The only players with multiple seasons among that group are Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara.
From 2017-2020, there were 26 running back seasons in which a back accounted for 15% or more of his team’s targets with seven of those being years in which a running back was at 20% or more.
Leaguewide Target Distribution At or Behind the Line of Scrimmage:
| YEAR | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 48.4% | 34.9% | 16.2% |
| 2022 | 47.0% | 35.6% | 17.1% |
| 2021 | 47.3% | 36.4% | 16.0% |
| 2020 | 48.3% | 37.1% | 14.3% |
| 2019 | 53.6% | 31.3% | 14.4% |
| 2018 | 52.2% | 33.9% | 13.3% |
| 2017 | 53.4% | 32.2% | 14.1% |
| 2016 | 49.0% | 36.8% | 14.0% |
| 2015 | 51.3% | 34.0% | 14.4% |
| 2014 | 51.4% | 34.7% | 13.5% |
| 2013 | 54.6% | 31.9% | 13.1% |
| 2012 | 54.1% | 31.3% | 14.3% |
| 2011 | 57.0% | 28.3% | 14.2% |
| 2010 | 53.6% | 30.0% | 16.3% |
With the league pressing offenses to throw the ball shorter, teams have begun using their skill players at the wide receiver and tight end positions even more on targets at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Running backs did have an increase over the past two seasons in target share at and behind the line of scrimmage last season, but they have still had a target share below 50% of those shallow targets now in four consecutive seasons after falling below the halfway point just once in a season prior since 2010.
Wide receivers have been hovering around a 5% or more increase in those types of targets compared to what they were getting at the onset of the sample.
And if running backs are fighting with receivers and tight ends for passing opportunities on throws at the line of scrimmage, they surely are not making up for that decline on throws beyond the line of scrimmage.
Leaguewide Target Distribution Beyond the Line of Scrimmage:
| YEAR | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 10.0% | 66.9% | 22.8% |
| 2022 | 11.5% | 66.1% | 22.3% |
| 2021 | 12.0% | 65.6% | 22.2% |
| 2020 | 11.8% | 65.5% | 22.5% |
| 2019 | 12.2% | 65.2% | 22.3% |
| 2018 | 13.2% | 65.0% | 21.6% |
| 2017 | 13.9% | 63.7% | 22.4% |
| 2016 | 12.0% | 65.7% | 22.3% |
| 2015 | 12.9% | 64.1% | 22.8% |
| 2014 | 12.1% | 66.0% | 21.7% |
| 2013 | 12.2% | 65.7% | 22.0% |
| 2012 | 11.4% | 65.8% | 22.6% |
| 2011 | 11.7% | 65.0% | 23.0% |
| 2010 | 12.0% | 65.9% | 22.0% |
Last season, running backs only accounted for 10% of the league’s target beyond the line of scrimmage.
Not only is that their lowest rate in the sample above, but it is the largest year-over-year drop as well.
Receiving running backs has become a cheat code for fantasy now due to scarcity at the position.
RB1 Scoring Compared to RB2 Output Over the Past 30 Seasons
| Year | RB1 | Pts | RB2 | Pts | Diff | RB1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey | 471.2 | Aaron Jones | 314.8 | 156.4 | 66.81% |
| 1995 | Emmitt Smith | 426.8 | Barry Sanders | 310.2 | 116.6 | 72.68% |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey | 391.3 | Breece Hall | 290.5 | 100.8 | 74.24% |
| 2010 | Arian Foster | 396.0 | Peyton Hillis | 304.9 | 91.1 | 76.99% |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | 425.7 | Priest Holmes | 338.9 | 86.8 | 79.61% |
| 2016 | David Johnson | 407.8 | Ezekiel Elliott | 325.4 | 82.4 | 79.79% |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | 398.9 | Adrian Peterson | 332.9 | 66.0 | 83.45% |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 483.1 | Steven Jackson | 419.4 | 63.7 | 86.81% |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | 459.9 | Edgerrin James | 403.3 | 56.6 | 87.69% |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | 442.7 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 386.2 | 56.5 | 87.24% |
| 1994 | Emmitt Smith | 364.5 | Barry Sanders | 308.6 | 55.9 | 84.66% |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman | 316.4 | Adrian Peterson | 260.7 | 55.7 | 82.40% |
| 2011 | Ray Rice | 376.8 | LeSean McCoy | 330.4 | 46.4 | 87.69% |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley | 383.3 | Le'Veon Bell | 341.6 | 41.7 | 89.12% |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles | 378.0 | Matt Forte | 337.3 | 40.7 | 89.23% |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara | 377.8 | Dalvin Cook | 337.8 | 40.0 | 89.41% |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | 347.4 | Doug Martin | 311.6 | 35.8 | 89.69% |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor | 373.1 | Austin Ekeler | 343.8 | 29.3 | 92.15% |
| 1999 | Marshall Faulk | 403.9 | Edgerrin James | 377.9 | 26.0 | 93.56% |
| 2014 | Le'Veon Bell | 370.5 | DeMarco Murray | 351.1 | 19.4 | 94.76% |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | 385.5 | Marshall Faulk | 368.7 | 16.8 | 95.64% |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler | 372.7 | Christian McCaffrey | 356.4 | 16.3 | 95.63% |
| 2004 | Tiki Barber | 351.6 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 340.1 | 11.5 | 96.73% |
| 1997 | Barry Sanders | 352.8 | Terrell Davis | 341.7 | 11.1 | 96.85% |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | 378.8 | Larry Johnson | 368.3 | 10.5 | 97.23% |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook | 372.4 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 367.6 | 4.8 | 98.71% |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes | 447.0 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 443.8 | 3.2 | 99.28% |
| 1996 | Ricky Watters | 314.5 | Terry Allen | 312.7 | 1.8 | 99.43% |
| 2008 | DeAngelo Williams | 307.6 | Matt Forte | 306.5 | 1.1 | 99.64% |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley | 385.8 | Christian McCaffrey | 385.5 | 0.3 | 99.92% |
Everything that we have covered to this point has combined to make three-down, elite-upside running backs for fantasy football more of a fine resource than it has been since I have been playing the game.
McCaffrey scored 100.8 more PPR points than the next closest running back over the full season last year.
That was just the third time over the past 30 years that has happened.
McCaffrey also has one of the other two seasons in which the RB1 outscored the RB2 by 100 or more points.
Last season’s RB2 in overall output only produced 74.2% of the top score, the third-lowest rate over that span.
This is why we have seen a fundamental shift amongst fantasy gamers and how they are handling the fantasy position.
Running backs as a whole are being discounted more than ever due to everything we have covered to this point, but McCaffrey is regarded as the crown jewel in fantasy drafts this season because of the measured positional leverage he has had over the field at his position.
Sort of what was happening with Travis Kelce for the apex run of his career, that positional leverage has elevated McCaffrey’s cost, and unlike Kelce, gamers have to start multiple running backs in the majority of fantasy leagues as opposed to only one tight end.
Now, we also should look at the field’s performance last season signaling some regression in tightening up the gap in scoring from this year’s RB2 to the RB1, but that is already being accounted for by gamers selecting both Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall in the first round, the only other running backs that profile closely to checking all of the boxes that McCaffrey does.
On the flip side, the decline in receiving work at the position has opened the door for more run-first options to compete at the front end of the position due to three-down backs being such a scarce commodity.
Over the past four seasons, eight of the backs to close the year as top-six scorers in PPR formats have had fewer than 30% of their points come from receiving.
We also have to acknowledge that once again mobile quarterbacks and their increasing numbers at the position are also playing a role.
That podcast has a wealth more on the subject, but when looking at the top-12 quarterbacks in rushing points per game last season, their distribution of the ball to running backs does show similar concerns.
2023 Rushing Point Leaders at QB and their Target Rate to RBs:
| QB | RuPts/Gm | RB TGT% | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 9.40 | 13.6% | 50 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8.85 | 18.0% | 29 |
| Josh Allen | 8.38 | 15.8% | 42 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7.01 | 15.6% | 43 |
| Justin Fields | 6.90 | 20.9% | 23 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 6.01 | 13.8% | 49 |
| Kyler Murray | 5.30 | 18.7% | 26 |
| Daniel Jones | 4.43 | 18.3% | 28 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3.62 | 15.0% | 45 |
| Russell Wilson | 3.47 | 31.8% | 2 |
| Jake Browning | 3.41 | 16.2% | 40 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3.37 | 16.4% | 39 |
| Sam Howell | 3.31 | 18.3% | 27 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3.29 | 24.3% | 11 |
| Justin Herbert | 3.14 | 14.7% | 46 |
| Jordan Love | 2.86 | 16.6% | 37 |
Of the top 16 quarterbacks in rushing points per game last season, just two of them were inside of the top 20 in target rate to their running backs out of 56 passers that threw the ball 50 or more times last season.
When looking at fantasy scoring in bulk across team backfields, the top three teams in running back scoring a year ago were Miami, San Francisco, and Detroit.
Not only were those three teams among teams that we highlighted as systems doing the necessary things to attack the current defensive meta, but none of those teams had a mobile quarterback to siphon away rushing attempts and compromise target shares for their backfields.
Of the top 10-scoring backfields last season, only the Ravens and Broncos were attached to quarterbacks on the list above of the passers who rushed for the most points per game.
Flipping things over to the top scorers in points per game last season at running back, you do not get to a running back that played with a quarterback on the list above until Travis Etienne at RB7.
The only other RB1 scorers per game last season that played with a quarterback above were Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, who had limited sample sizes of playing with those passers. Taylor only played two snaps in total with Anthony Richardson last season.
Barkley is also trading up to a quarterback that doubled his previous quarterback in rushing output per game for fantasy.
If you go back to that table earlier that shows the highest-scoring running backs over the past 30 years, the last time that the RB1 in overall scoring played with attachment to a mobile quarterback was Chris Johnson back in 2009, and Vince Young only started 10 games that season.
I do not want to say that you should outright avoid running backs that play with mobile quarterbacks, but you should be incorporating their potential hindrances to backs into their range of outcomes. Especially in terms of ceiling output.
If you can find a back that controls his backfield for three downs, can catch the football, has access to goal-line touches, and plays with a largely stationary quarterback, that is a path to return value.
That is essentially how Rachaad White lived last season despite lacking efficiency metrics overall.
This is why I still believe that White remains a potential value again this season.
A few other players in the same space are Kyren Williams pending how much you believe Blake Corum is involved, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, and potentially Jonathon Brooks at some point this season.
Alvin Kamara is close but does share goal-line work with Taysom Hill, who is a thorn near the end zone.
No way I am reading all of that:
- The rate of running back touches continues to dip in both the rushing and receiving games.
- Mobile quarterbacks are taking away not only rushing volume but also receiving volume from the running back position.
- Lack of leaguewide passing game involvement paired with that touch reduction has made all-purpose backs a valuable and scarce resource for fantasy but also has allowed the depth of the position to have more viability.