Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into how wide receivers have scored fantasy points in recent seasons.
The goal for these articles is straightforward.
We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
| 2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2026 League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon) |
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League Wide Receiver Usage Since 2010
| YEAR | TGT/Gm | League % | Rec/Gm | Lg% | ReYD/Gm | Lg% | ReTD/Gm | Lg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.4 | 57.9% | 22.1 | 53.5% | 279.2 | 62.0% | 1.7 | 57.9% |
| 2024 | 37.6 | 60.1% | 23.9 | 55.9% | 299.5 | 64.1% | 1.9 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 38.4 | 59.7% | 24.2 | 55.7% | 305.3 | 64.6% | 1.8 | 64.3% |
| 2022 | 37.9 | 59.4% | 24.0 | 56.1% | 302.1 | 64.4% | 1.7 | 60.4% |
| 2021 | 39.5 | 59.6% | 24.9 | 55.9% | 311.0 | 63.7% | 1.9 | 62.0% |
| 2020 | 40.6 | 59.7% | 26.5 | 57.8% | 334.0 | 65.5% | 2.1 | 61.4% |
| 2019 | 39.1 | 58.3% | 24.1 | 54.4% | 315.5 | 62.7% | 1.9 | 60.3% |
| 2018 | 39.5 | 58.8% | 24.9 | 55.5% | 318.9 | 62.7% | 2.1 | 62.8% |
| 2017 | 38.7 | 57.5% | 22.7 | 53.6% | 293.2 | 61.2% | 1.7 | 58.7% |
| 2016 | 42.6 | 60.5% | 25.5 | 56.7% | 326.3 | 63.8% | 2.0 | 63.7% |
| 2015 | 41.3 | 58.6% | 24.6 | 54.7% | 322.5 | 62.2% | 2.0 | 61.6% |
| 2014 | 41.3 | 59.9% | 24.8 | 56.6% | 323.6 | 64.3% | 1.9 | 60.1% |
| 2013 | 41.4 | 59.3% | 23.9 | 55.1% | 318.8 | 63.2% | 1.9 | 60.1% |
| 2012 | 41.0 | 59.9% | 23.6 | 55.8% | 315.7 | 64.2% | 1.9 | 64.9% |
| 2011 | 39.3 | 58.7% | 22.2 | 54.4% | 307.1 | 62.7% | 1.8 | 63.5% |
| 2010 | 39.0 | 58.7% | 22.3 | 54.3% | 295.8 | 62.6% | 1.9 | 63.9% |
The 2025 season was not kind to the wide receiver position.
The position received their fewest targets and fewest receptions per game since 2001.
They collected the fewest receiving yards in a season since 2003.
Even accounting for the league-wide drop in passing volume we covered at the start of this series, the share of league-wide receiving production wide receivers accounted for in 2025 still reflected the depressed output.
Last year, the position received its lowest target share and lowest share of receptions, yardage, and touchdowns across the league since 2017.
Receivers accounted for less than 60% of the league’s receiving touchdowns just two times in the sample: last season and 2017.
It goes without saying that, with usage and counting stats rivaling the low points of the 2000s, the fantasy output followed suit.
League WR PPR Output Since 2010
| YEAR | RePt/Gm | League% |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 60.2 | 58.0% |
| 2024 | 65.5 | 61.3% |
| 2023 | 65.1 | 61.0% |
| 2022 | 64.0 | 60.5% |
| 2021 | 67.2 | 60.3% |
| 2020 | 72.0 | 61.6% |
| 2019 | 66.6 | 59.1% |
| 2018 | 68.9 | 59.9% |
| 2017 | 61.8 | 57.7% |
| 2016 | 69.6 | 61.0% |
| 2015 | 68.9 | 59.3% |
| 2014 | 67.8 | 60.4% |
| 2013 | 67.3 | 60.0% |
| 2012 | 66.5 | 61.2% |
| 2011 | 63.7 | 59.6% |
| 2010 | 63.3 | 60.2% |
2025 was the worst fantasy season for the wide receiver position this millennium in terms of output, while the position accounted for the lowest share of receiving points scored across the league every other year since 2000 outside of 2017.
The first inclination would be that this is a bottoming-out point, and gamers can play for an immediate rebound.
That very well could be true, and I would love to get back to drafting pass catchers, but there are a few factors at play before we can fully revert to the apex strategy of WR-heavy drafting.
When WR-heavy drafting gained momentum in fantasy circles in the mid-2010s under the lens of Zero-RB and Antifragility, there was a direct overlap between how the NFL operated and, in turn, where fantasy points were being distributed.
That spike occurred as the NFL transitioned to more 3WR sets, spread offenses, and a passing boom.
In turn, wide receivers were scoring more fantasy points not only in total but also as a share of the league’s top-down portfolio of overall output.
Wide receivers were scoring more points than running backs.
Then, given that most leagues require you to start three receivers, you inherently need more receivers on your roster than running backs.
If your league has additional FLEX positions beyond starting three wideouts, the need to allocate more roster spots to the position increases.
Not only did you want wide receivers in those FLEX positions because they were scoring more points than running backs and tight ends, but you were also building towards a team strength that covered the roster's neediest positions while accounting for injuries and bye weeks.
This is why drafting WR-heavy became more popular.
As we have hammered home throughout the series so far, we are no longer in that era of the NFL.
2025 could absolutely be a low point for wide receiving scoring that bounces back this year, but anticipating a full reversion to wide receivers being the best-scoring asset for fantasy football under the current operating system of NFL offenses is a tougher buy.
We have already covered that offenses are not only throwing less but, when they are throwing, doing so at an increased rate in heavier formations.
Offensive Play Rates Per Personnel Over Past 10 Seasons
| Year | Under Center | 3+WRS | 2+TE | 6+OL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34.8% | 57.9% | 33.4% | 5.3% |
| 2024 | 30.3% | 62.6% | 30.2% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | 28.7% | 64.8% | 27.0% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 33.0% | 62.9% | 27.8% | 3.1% |
| 2021 | 34.6% | 62.3% | 28.8% | 3.9% |
| 2020 | 34.8% | 62.8% | 28.8% | 2.7% |
| 2019 | 36.1% | 62.0% | 28.2% | 4.4% |
| 2018 | 36.8% | 65.4% | 25.1% | 3.2% |
| 2017 | 41.2% | 61.3% | 29.4% | 3.7% |
| 2016 | 36.4% | 64.4% | 25.3% | 5.7% |
Offenses have started putting more tight ends on the field at the expense of wide receivers, a trend that this NFL offseason has doubled down on.
At the NFL Combine, the league invited a record 27 tight ends.
22 tight ends were drafted this spring, up from 15 in 2025 and 12 in 2024.
It was the most tight ends selected in a draft since 2002.
Yes, teams are running more, which is why heavier sets are being played at a higher rate.
But as we covered in the opening article of this series, offenses are getting heavier to force defenses out of sub-packages so that they can throw out of those sets.
Offensive Personnel Rate on Dropbacks Over Past 10 Seasons
| Year | 2+TE | 3+WR | 0-1WR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.5% | 68.8% | 5.7% |
| 2024 | 22.8% | 73.0% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | 20.4% | 74.2% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | 19.9% | 73.7% | 4.4% |
| 2021 | 20.8% | 73.4% | 4.3% |
| 2020 | 21.5% | 73.5% | 4.6% |
| 2019 | 20.9% | 72.4% | 4.1% |
| 2018 | 18.4% | 75.3% | 3.7% |
| 2017 | 20.6% | 72.9% | 4.3% |
| 2016 | 18.9% | 75.3% | 3.5% |
Now, three or more wide receivers are still on the field for just under 69% of the league's dropbacks, which is still the bulk of league passing snaps.
However, compared to how things were 10 years ago and to how much the drop was a year ago, even relative to 2024, it is a noteworthy decline.
Last year was the largest year-over-year drop in our sample.
A quarter of the league’s passing plays last season had multiple tight ends on the field.
It is still a low rate of league dropbacks, but last year, offenses had 1,130 dropbacks with zero or only one wide receiver on the field.
In 2024, that number was 756.
In 2023, that number was 721.
This trend has hurt team WR3 production, specifically for players tied to slot-centric roles.
2025 WRs With a 50+% Slot Rate
| Player | Slot% | Routes/TmDB% | TmTgt% | PPR Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 77.7% | 25.6% | 5.4% | 35.9 |
| DeMario Douglas | 75.6% | 36.3% | 9.5% | 93.7 |
| Jayden Reed | 75.5% | 20.3% | 4.8% | 45.7 |
| Josh Downs | 75.2% | 63.2% | 16.6% | 138.6 |
| Tyler Lockett | 72.8% | 54.6% | 10.0% | 67.1 |
| Christian Kirk | 70.8% | 43.3% | 9.4% | 57.9 |
| Greg Dortch | 68.2% | 28.7% | 5.3% | 67.6 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 67.6% | 35.2% | 6.3% | 77.6 |
| Chimere Dike | 67.2% | 63.4% | 14.0% | 114.3 |
| Xavier Smith | 65.6% | 23.7% | 4.1% | 48.3 |
| Jaylin Noel | 64.1% | 31.4% | 6.3% | 67.2 |
| Isaiah Williams | 63.7% | 35.1% | 7.6% | 45.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 62.6% | 71.1% | 19.8% | 165.9 |
| Ladd McConkey | 61.3% | 82.5% | 19.5% | 180.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | 61.0% | 77.5% | 22.9% | 174.7 |
| Jalen Nailor | 58.7% | 72.5% | 11.3% | 97.4 |
| Jalen Coker | 58.7% | 49.1% | 9.0% | 88.4 |
| Tutu Atwell | 57.1% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 31.2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 56.8% | 80.1% | 9.5% | 88.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 55.7% | 86.7% | 27.8% | 217.4 |
| Sterling Shepard | 54.2% | 54.6% | 9.8% | 80.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 53.7% | 90.6% | 24.4% | 201.8 |
| Pat Bryant | 53.7% | 45.2% | 8.4% | 74.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | 52.3% | 68.3% | 21.2% | 210.3 |
Of the 24 wide receivers who played half of their snaps from the slot, only five were on the field for 75% or more of their team's dropbacks.
Those players were also the five highest-scoring slot-centric options.
Just eight were on the field for two-thirds of the dropbacks.
12 were below 50%.
Only three cracked 200 PPR points.
That does not mean we do not want snaps from the slot.
Rather, the players tied to that specific role are limited by how offenses are currently playing.
That is what makes the guys we are hopeful can break out of those roles interesting this season.
Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Jalen Coker, and Jalen Nailor all have new team environments that could reduce their slot snaps and increase their snaps in heavier personnel packages.
So far over their careers, Reed has run 8 routes in 1-2 WR sets (2.4% of the team total in his games played), Downs 33 (8.4%), Nailor 56 (11.5%), and Coker 35 (27.1%).
You can even look at Ladd McConkey and apply Mike McDaniel‘s approach, reducing his slot snaps given that he ran the most pass plays in the league out of 1-2 WR sets over his tenure in Miami.
The current landscape for wideouts winning as high-end targets earning WR1 status in today’s NFL is about versatility.
Being able to win at the full route tree, play inside and out, find space against all the disguised coverages shaping the defensive meta, and create after the catch.
We are no longer in an NFL where the alpha X receiver is dominating targets and stacking the most fantasy points.
That was the case again in 2025.
The top-12 scorers at the position in points per game last season were Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb.
Pickens, Adams, Collins, and Brown are the only players among that group who are traditional X options.
The rest of those guys all move around and win in space.
The past seven receivers to lead the position in fantasy points per game have been Nacua, Chase, Lamb, Cooper Kupp (twice), Adams, and Michael Thomas.
With teams reducing the viability of the “slot only” player and using their WR1 targets more diversely, we have seen fantasy production get pushed back towards the top of the food chain at the position.
When WR3 sets began to spike, WR2 and WR3 fantasy depth scorers cut into the output of the league's top scorers at the position.
Seven different wide receivers who ran 100-plus routes were targeted on 28% or more of their routes, matching 2024 for the most in a season since 2021.
Nacua (35.9%), Smith-Njigba (33.5%), and St. Brown (30.4%) were all targeted on at least 30% of their routes.
The top four seasons in target rate per route run for players with 200-plus routes over the past decade have come over the past three years.
We had four wide receivers last season who each accounted for 30% or more of their team’s targets.
From 2000 to 2020, there were 26 seasons in which a player hit a 30% target share.
We have now had 11 over the past five years.
WR1 production is more condensed and valuable, while the secondary WR tiers have depreciated, creating a near-inverse structure to building.
This was something we wrote about in the draft plan at wide receiver last year.
WR1 production is back to being a premium within the position.
In turn, you can build around the aforementioned depth, flattening out and surrounding a WR1 target with a handful of receivers in the WR3 or later range (per ADP) as an optimal approach.
That is how we are going to format our approach this season at the position.
We have another similar layout this season.
I am going to write about how I believe the RB-heavy approach can fail this season in our upcoming ADP series, but as a loose spoiler, that still has more to do with those players in the front area of drafts failing than wide receivers as a whole going nuclear in 2026.
For 2026, I believe the optimal way to draft wide receivers is not entirely different than what we were doing when the top of the running back position became top heavy (it still is?) and gamers were utilizing Anchor-RB or “Hero” running back as a method to have your cake and eat it for fantasy (getting a difference making running back and still building out a WR-heavy roster while WRs were scoring more points).
We may not take drafting wide receivers to the extremes of that draft approach and label it Anchor-WR.
Still, I do believe the current ideal way to draft wide receivers under the umbrella of wanting to have your cake and eat it now (having a difference-making WR while still building around RB scoring more points than WRs) is landing an alpha option early on and then circling back and hammering the depth of the position (WR15-WR40).