Finding The Right DFS Stack: Week 16

Each week we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to identify the best stacks for your DFS lineup

We’ve opened the last few weeks with a look at how teams are trending as far as pace is concerned. This week, I wanted to highlight the Explosive Play tool on the site. The chart below shows the rankings of all the teams in the league over the past four weeks in explosive play rate for pass plays, run plays, and combined. 

Tampa Bay is at the top of the heap in explosive pass rate. The problem is the wide receiver room there is currently a wasteland. Over the past two weeks, the Buccaneers have run 12 Personnel on 20% of their pass plays which is good for 10th in the league during that span. It’s only a slight bump up from the 16% that they ran up to that point in the season but the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin mean their hand may be forced to a certain extent. 

The Titans are in the top three of explosive pass and run rates over the past month. They’ve done most of their damage from 11 Personnel. Over 50% of their total plays have come from that set. The Titans have a 56% success rate on plays from 11 over that span. 

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QB-WR Stack

It wasn’t a combination we could’ve anticipated to start the year… but all of a sudden, a Ryan Tannehill ($6,600) and A.J. Brown ($7,000) stack will cost you north of $13,000. As unpredictable as it may be, it makes sense. They’ve both been excellent lately. Brown’s been living in the 4-6 target range for most of the season, but he exploded last week with 13 targets. Brown had been trending up for about four weeks, though, and it’s easy to see why. 

In four of six zones, his targets have earned a 119 or better passer rating. During that span, Brown has averaged over 22 DraftKings Points on 7.2 targets per game. He’s lapping his fellow pass-catchers in the target department. Brown has seen nearly 30 targets over the past four weeks, while Corey Davis is the only other Titan with a target total that even hit the teens. 

Tannehill is the fourth-most expensive signal-caller but is still $1,400 cheaper than the most expensive, Lamar Jackson. His ownership will be suppressed this week because of the options surrounding him, but he could be valuable in GPPs. 

Game Stack 

The Cardinals and Seahawks game started off as the third-highest total on the slate but line movement has vaulted them to the top spot. The Cardinals are 10-point underdogs and will likely be forced to pass. Arizona is in the top third of the league in pass rate when they’re behind. Their strengths seem to match up with the Seahawks’ defensive weaknesses in the passing games. 

The Seahawks are weakest against short routes across the field and deep targets down the middle and to the right side of the field. That should open up some opportunities for Kyler Murray ($6,100). He only threw the ball 25 times last week. That marked just the third time all season that he didn’t attempt 30+ passes. We’re in the volume chasing business here, and if we’re going to put Kyler in our lineups again, Christian Kirk ($5,600) makes the most sense. 

Since the Week 12 bye, Kirk is averaging seven targets per game. He primarily operates in the short to intermediate part of the field. Arizona is in the bottom seven of explosive run rate allowed. With no other game in town, Seattle is forced to rely on Chris Carson ($8,500). 

It’s no surprise the lead back pops up quite a bit in the most frequent play calls for the Seahawks. Since their Week 11 bye, Carson has averaged over 18 DK Points per game. If the argument for a Murray-Kirk stack is that Seattle jumps out to a lead, then Carson is the obvious correlation play. 

Contrarian Stack

The Ravens face off against the Browns on the road this weekend as 10-point favorites. Let’s take a peek at how Baltimore has called plays this season.

That’s a lot of Lamar Jackson ($8,000) and Mark Ingram ($6,800). I’ve written this stack up in weeks past and it’s been somewhat successful. The question mark is always whether or not Ingram finds the end zone. Jackson figures out a way to get there each and every week. He’s averaging over 29 DK Points per game despite averaging just over 200 passing yards per game. If the game goes as planned, they’ll play from ahead. 

Baltimore playing with the lead will turn into a lot of Cleveland pass attempts. The Baltimore DST ($4,000) is the most expensive on the slate, but they’re worth a flier in GPPs. They’ve had multiple sacks and forced at least one fumble in six of their last seven games. Baltimore also has 12 interceptions on the year.