The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 New York Giants at Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game.
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 18.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 15.2 | 31 | Points/Gm | 24.2 | 14 |
| 24.5 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 20.7 | 6 |
| 61.8 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 7 |
| 66.9 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 9 |
| 4.7 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 20 |
| 5.3 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
| 39.90% | 24 | Rush% | 48.78% | 2 |
| 60.10% | 9 | Pass% | 51.22% | 31 |
| 43.27% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 35.00% | 2 |
| 56.73% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 65.00% | 31 |
- The Giants have lost five consecutive season openers, the second-longest ongoing streak in the league.
- The Giants had the fewest passing plays to gain 20 or more yards in 2021 (31). The Titans were 31st (35).
- The Giants scored a touchdown on just 12.7% of their drives in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
- That touchdown rate per drive was the seventh-lowest mark for a team over the previous decade and the lowest rate for a team since the 2018 Jaguars. It was the lowest touchdown rate for the Giants in a season as a franchise since 2003, when they scored on 11.5% of their drives.
- Touchdowns accounted for just 44.2% of the New York scoring plays, the lowest rate for a team in a season since the 2017 49ers.
- Tennessee was first in the NFL in the rate of first down runs (60.6%) in 2021. With Derrick Henry off of the field, it was 57.7%, which still would have led the league.
- The Titans averaged just 3.9 yards per play on those plays without Henry (last in the league). With Henry, they averaged 6.3 yards per play on those first down plays, which would have ranked second in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill: After back-to-back seasons as the QB10 in Tennessee, Tannehill slid down to QB16 for fantasy a year ago with just five QB1 scoring weeks.
The Titans' passing offense has been predicated on efficiency since they remain one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the league. Over the past three years, only the Baltimore Ravens have accumulated more rushing attempts than the Titans, with Tennessee ranking 10th, second, and first in that department in those individual seasons.
That efficiency was not a problem for Tannehill until last season. After touchdown rates of 7.7% and 6.9% rates in 2019-2020, he had a touchdown rate of just 4.0% a year ago. After passing for 9.6 and 7.9 yards per pass attempt with Tennessee, he threw for just 7.0 Y/A in 2021. Even his 2.6% interception rate sagged below previous rates of 2.1% and 1.5%.
While Tannehill is unlikely to ever match his 2019 efficiency metrics, a large part of his dip in performance a year ago can be credited to the number of injuries the Titans sustained among their skill players.
31.3% of Tannehill’s dropbacks in the regular season came with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones off the field. On those dropbacks, he averaged 5.5 Y/A. Just 30.4% of Tannehill’s dropbacks came with both on the field, in which he averaged 8.2 Y/A.
Tannehill carried -26.6 expected points added on plays with both Brown and Jones off the field while he carried 17.4 EPA with both on the field.
Now with both Brown and Jones no longer with the team, are the replacement options able to aid this passing game in returning to a hyper-efficient unit and potentially improve it? While replacing the minimal production from Jones in 2021 should not be a major obstacle, the additions here still come with question marks.
Tannehill does kick off the season in an objectively solid spot as a sizable home favorite against a defense we will likely be often targeting this season for quarterback points. The Giants have one of the thinnest and most inexperienced secondaries in the league paired with an aggressive defensive coordinator.
Wink Martindale has never found a situation where he does not want to blitz and we saw more of the same this preseason. The Giants blitzed on a league-high 43.5% of dropbacks this preseason while playing Cover 0 on a league-high 12.8% of dropbacks.
That combination of aggressiveness and personnel is going to be a cocktail for big plays. the question is can the Titans hold up and take advantage?
The Tennessee offensive line was a below average unit in 2021, ranking 24th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (56%). At Pro Football Focus, they ranked 27th in collective pass blocking grade. This unit arguably may have gotten worse this offseason as well.
Tannehill was blitzed on 29.9% of his dropbacks in 2021 (11th highest) and held up with respectable marks of 66.0% completion rate (14th) and 7.9 yards per pass attempt (14th) when blitzed.
It was when the pressure got to him that things became an issue. When under pressure, Tannehill threw for just 5.3 Y/A. That rate was 7.2 Y/A with Brown and Jones on the field under pressure, so we are really counting on this new receiving corps being an improvement if the pressure gets home.
That leaves volatility in play while we know the Titans are more than willing to run the ball as much as possible, but the game environment and matchup give Tannehill one of his best outlooks as a streamer and QB2.