The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon game.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 30 | ||
| 22.1 | 18 | Points/Gm | 30.4 | 1 |
| 19.8 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 23.6 | 20 |
| 64.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 67 | 5 |
| 63.4 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 22 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 3 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 16 |
| 44.66% | 10 | Rush% | 34.70% | 30 |
| 55.34% | 23 | Pass% | 65.30% | 3 |
| 41.33% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 35.87% | 3 |
| 58.67% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 64.13% | 30 |
- The Chiefs are 0-4 against the spread at home this season.
- 19.8% of the offensive plays by the Chiefs have come inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- 16.9% of the offensive plays run by the Jaguars have come inside of the red zone, third in the league.
- The Chiefs are producing a first down or touchdown every 2.95 plays, the best rate in the league.
- The Chiefs are converting 42.9% of their third and long situations (needing seven or more yards), the highest rate in the league. League average is 24.8%.
- The Chiefs are first in the NFL now in EPA added per dropback (0.44) targeting their wide receivers.
- The Jaguars are averaging 1.1 more yards per rushing play than their opponent, third in the league behind the Ravens and 49ers.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes threw for a season-low 6.6 yards per pass attempt on Sunday night with just one touchdown pass, but he attempted a career-high 68 passes playing catchup against the Titans, which led to 446 yards passing. Mahomes also tacked on 63 yards rushing to go along with a rushing touchdown and two-point conversion.
When the smoke cleared, Mahomes turned in his fifth straight top-six scoring week at the position.
The Chiefs have been pressed to go more pass-heavy as their running game falters. They have a 15% pass rate over expectation over their past four games, a stretch where Mahomes has 292, 338, 423, and 446 passing yards after throwing for 360, 235, 262, and 249 yards over the opening four games. Kansas City now sits tops in the league in early down pass rate (68.1%) in neutral game scripts. When you pair that with how insane Mahomes has been on third downs, you have a strong cocktail for fantasy points.
We have Mahomes in a spot as another large home favorite with the highest implied team total of the week, a combination we look for. The Chiefs have also played much closer games than implied in these spots as well, so we could get some pushback to create a high-scoring game environment.
The Jaguars have been middle of the pack against the pass, allowing 13.8 passing points per game (19th) while allowing three top-10 scorers over their past four games, which have been to Matt Ryan (27.2 points), Daniel Jones (28.8 points), and Derek Carr (18.4 points).