The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets Thursday Night Football game.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 20 | Implied Total | 18.5 | ||
| 23.9 | 12 | Points/Gm | 20.1 | 23 |
| 23.4 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 4 |
| 63.9 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 16 |
| 65.1 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 17 |
| 5.8 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 20 |
| 5.7 | 25 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 3 |
| 40.94% | 18 | Rush% | 38.75% | 24 |
| 59.06% | 15 | Pass% | 61.25% | 9 |
| 42.81% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.18% | 19 |
| 57.19% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.82% | 14 |
- Jacksonville is 0-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite, one of three remaining teams (Chicago and Carolina) that have yet to cover as a favorite and one of two (Carolina) yet to win as a favorite this season.
- Since their Week 11 bye, the Jaguars are averaging 6.0 yards per play over the past four weeks, fifth in the NFL.
- The Jaguars are allowing 6.0 yards per play since Week 7, ahead of only the Bears (6.3 yards).
- The Jets are allowing 4.7 yards per play over that span, second in the league.
- Jacksonville is allowing a league-high 2.70 points per drive since Week 9.
- New York quarterbacks have combined for a 42.2% completion rate in the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence stayed red hot on Sunday, throwing for 318 yards and a season-high four touchdowns. Closing as the QB5 (26.8 points), Lawrence has now logged a QB1 scoring week in seven of his past nine games and has finished in the back half of weekly scoring in just one of those weeks. Over the past six weeks, Lawrence has thrown 14 touchdowns and one interception.
One of the conduits for his fantasy output has been that the Jaguars have been getting flooded defensively and have found themselves in huge holes to climb out of. Over that span, the Jaguars have been outscored 107-60, which is 30th in the league. As a byproduct, the Jaguars are sixth in the league in second half passing rate (62.6%) while averaging 20.2 pass attempts per game after the break (second) over that period. Lawrence is second in the NFL in fantasy scoring after halftime during that run. While the Jaguars have been brutal defensively, are the Jaguars going to be put in an immensely negative game script to that degree against the Jets?
We also have a tough draw on the road in a short week. Josh Allen is the only quarterback to log a QB1 scoring week against the Jets since Week 3. He did so twice, but he only threw one touchdown pass in those games, doing all of his damage on the ground (Allen had 14.0 total passing points in those games but 31.3 rushing points). The Jets allow 6.4 yards per pass attempt (third) and a 2.8% touchdown rate (third) to opposing passers.
Lawrence has been so hot that you are likely riding the wave with him as a fringe QB1, but it is hard to anticipate a spike week from him here. On top of things, left tackle Cam Robinson it out and there are weather concerns for high winds and rain on Thursday Night.
It is another really dry streaming week, giving thin options to replace Lawrence with. But if I had pivots such as Geno Smith, Tom Brady, or Daniel Jones I would explore those avenues.