NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well.
The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection.
There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme.
Most important of all:
The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Slate Breakdown
The Los Angeles Rams are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 7-point underdogs. The total is set at 39.5.
Injury Notes
Aaron Jones – Ankle – Questionable
Los Angeles Rams Offense
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: $10,000
Mayfield now has a week under his belt after an incredible win last game with less than two days of preparation. Most of his production came from the 98-yard final drive resulting in the walk-off touchdown to Van Jefferson. With such a small sample size, it remains to be seen if the playbook will open up for Mayfield. He remains in the player pool based on projected low ownership due to his expensive salary, but we’re prioritizing the Packers’ passing attack over the Rams.
Running back
Cam Akers: $8,200
Akers played just 42% of the offensive snaps last week as Kyren Williams took most of the passing down work in a come-from-behind effort. Akers still earned 13 opportunities and scored a short touchdown, but as a 7-point underdog on the road that doesn’t get passing work, he’s an avoid.
Kyren Williams: $5,800
Williams is a tough projection. We typically like to target volatile options in the $5,000 range as they often go overlooked, but Williams has struggled to get involved even with his heavy passing-down usage and 30% snap share. He is worth having some exposure to in large field tournaments, but there are better options in this price range.
Receiver
Van Jefferson: $6,800
Jefferson seemed to be Mayfield’s favorite target, which makes sense as he is the most talented receiver the Rams have. After catching the game-winning touchdown in a miracle comeback, expect Jefferson to continue to earn targets. He’s only earned four targets in each of the last two weeks but he’s playing nearly 100% of the snaps and now has seemingly improved quarterback play.
Tyler Higbee: $6,400
Higbee’s top-5 tight end season was derailed by injury, but it appears as if he’s returning to form. He’s been targeted eight times over the past two weeks and is back to playing nearly every snap. He should see a target share north of 20% with so few receiving options to compete with.
Ben Skowronek: $5,200
Skowronek was the only receiver to have played 100% of the snaps last week. He was targeted a whopping eight times. He is the safest Rams receiver, but he will also be the most rostered. Skowronek is a far superior play to Williams but comes at an ownership cost.
Tutu Atwell: $4,400
Atwell played a season-high 61% of the snaps last week and was targeted a team-high nine times. It is difficult to say if his boost in opportunity was related to Brandon Powell’s questionable status or not. This price range is where we will want to get our exposure to contrarian Rams options while stacking the Packers.
Punt Plays
Brandon Powell: $2,200
Powell was questionable heading into last week’s game with a sickness. He was active but played only 22% of the snaps. With Atwell making the most of his opportunity, it’s likely Powell continues to take a backseat.
Favorite Stack
Tyler Higbee / Baker Mayfield / Allen Lazard / Aaron Rodgers
With Higbee playing nearly 90% of the snaps with a projected target share north of 20% he profiles as a reasonable low-cost Captain option. Mayfield won’t make many of my lineups but if any of his receivers are at Captain, I will be including him in the flex. Lazard has taken a back seat in terms of production and exposure as pertains to Watson, which makes him a solid pivot to pair with Rodgers.
Green Bay Packers Offense
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: $10,800
Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of his 13 starts. With such a low total, multiple touchdowns from a quarterback would all but guarantee an appearance in the optimal lineup. He’s averaging over 30 attempts per game and has been reasonably efficient. As seven-point home favorites, both Packers backs will be highly owned, leaving the door wide open to double or triple stacks Rodgers with his receivers.
Running back
Aaron Jones: $11,200
Jones is currently questionable after being limited in practice all week. Last week he played just 30% of the snaps and handled only 14 touches. His floor is lower than it’s ever been, but he’s got one of the slate’s highest ceilings. With so much ambiguity around his status, Jones should carry lower-than-average ownership making him a strong Captain option.
A.J. Dillon: $6,200
Dillon is far too cheap for his current role. Especially if Jones is limited to 30% of the snaps once again. He will be the second highest-owned player of the slate behind only Aaron Rodgers. He’s still worth rostering for the salary he saves for the rest of the lineup, but we will have to focus on unique additions around him.
Receiver
Christian Watson: $8,800
Watson is running hotter than any receiver in the league with just a 23% target share. With a four-game sample size I’m giving up on entirely fading Watson, but it’s worth considering other Packers’ receivers for the ownership discounts.
Allen Lazard: $7,600
Lazard is one of the other receivers worth considering. Over the past four games, he’s nearly matched Watson’s target share with 21.8%, yet his box score production isn’t even half. With a similar market share at a $1,200 discount and less exposure, I will be overweight on Lazard.
Romeo Doubs: $6,800
Doubs’s triumphant return would be far more enticing if he weren’t already $6,800. It appears DraftKings has been burned by players returning from injury enough times that they’ve overcompensated. At $6,800, Doubs only makes sense as a large field contrarian play.
Randall Cobb: $5,600
Cobb is likely to see a dip in snaps with the return of Doubs, but his exposure will be reasonable enough to compensate. The field is likely to gravitate towards Doubs in his return, which makes Cobb a viable pivot.
Robert Tonyan: $5,400
Tonyan is playing just 52% of the snaps and hasn’t been targeted more than four times since Week 8. We’re looking to stack Rodgers with at least two pass catchers, and can’t simply lock in Lazard and Watson, so we will need to click on some of these $5,000 options and cross our fingers.
Punt plays
Josiah Deguara: $200
Deguara has received a target in seven of 13 games and is playing 50% of the snaps. At minimum salary, Deguara is worth having some exposure to as a dart throw.
Favorite Stack
Aaron Rodgers / Christian Watson / Allen Lazard / Robert Tonyan
We’re waiting to get news on Jones, but Dillon is going to be incredibly popular either way. We can leverage his exposure by stacking Rodgers with multiple receivers. If he can throw at least two touchdowns he has a good shot to land as the optimal Captain. Watson and Lazard both have target shares over 20%, but we’ll have to hit on one of the more volatile pass catchers if we’re going to execute the Rodgers triple stack. Tonyan and Cobb work interchangeably here as they should both carry low exposure at reasonable cost.