NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well.
The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection.
There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme.
Most important of all:
The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Slate Breakdown
The Chicago Bears are heading to New England to take on the Patriots as 8.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 40.5. The Bears are dead last in passing attempts while the Patriots aren’t far behind ranking sixth-lowest. Mac Jones is considered a game-time decision for Monday night, but he will likely start after taking first-team reps.
The slate doesn’t change much whether or not Jones starts. This game will be a dual between Rhamondre Stevenson and David Montgomery, with both of their back-ups being worth consideration as well. The Bears’ passing game should try to get going given the huge spread but given their offense thus far that is unlikely. Justin Fields has averaged nine rushes a game and deserves consideration even with his lack of pass attempts. This is a slate to pay special attention to creating unique lineup construction.
Injury Notes
Mac Jones – Ankle – GTD
Nelson Agholor – Hamstring – Questionable
Kendrick Bourne – Toe – Questionable
Chicago Bears Offense
Quarterback
Justin Fields: $10,400
Justin Fields is passing at the league’s lowest rate. He has not completed more than 15 passes once this season. He’s passed for over 200 yards just once. While this fact essentially eliminates the Bears’ ancillary pass catchers from consideration, it does little to Fields’s value. He has been a top-12 quarterback in consecutive weeks due to his rushing production. Fields is worth consideration in the Flex but is a tough sell at Captain with so few viable receiving options to pair him with.
Running back
David Montgomery: $10,600
David Montgomery’s price is so high based on the team’s rushing percentage, but he has only paid off that salary once this season. He’s handling over 70% of the snaps and averaging nearly 15 carries in the games he’s been healthy. His receiving usage has been sporadic, resulting in games with one, two, three, and four catches. Montgomery is fine to keep in the player pool because the Bears will run the ball relentlessly, but Damien Harris is a similar play for $2,200 less.
Khalil Herbert: $5,400
Khalil Herbert is playing on fewer than 30% of the snaps, but he’s still receiving a handful of carries per game. He rushed seven times for 74 yards last week, and four times for 11 yards the week prior. He is getting no passing game usage, but the Bears will use him on the goal line. If looking to play a Bears back solely due to the game script, Herbert is a better fit due to the lower salary.
Receiver
Darnell Mooney: $7,400
Darnell Mooney is the only Bears receiver playing over 70% of the snaps. Despite Fields’s lack of passing attempts, Mooney is managing a reasonable target volume for his price. Last week he was targeted 12 times resulting in seven receptions for 68 yards. Mooney has yet to hit pay dirt this season. Mooney is the best receiving option for the Bears and can be played with or without Fields.
Dante Pettis: $5,200
Dante Pettis is splitting time with Equanimeous St. Brown but he’s the only one making good on his snaps. Last week he was targeted seven times. He’s been on the receiving end for two of Fields’ four touchdowns this season. Given the game script, recent production, and lack of production for St. Brown Pettis is a strong play at low ownership.
Equanimeous St. Brown: $4,600
Equanimeous St. Brown has not seen more than two targets in a game since Week 2. He’s no more than an expensive punt play.
Cole Kmet: $5,000
Cole Kmet has settled into a consistent role after a strange start to the season. He’s being targeted about three times a game. At $5,000 on an offense that will struggle to score and refuse to pass the ball at a reasonable rate, Kmet can be avoided in favor of Pettis.
Punt Plays
Velus Jones Jr.: $1,200
Velus Jones has seen one target per game in each of the last two games. He rushed for a touchdown in his first game action. With a team struggling on offense, they could look to get their second-round receiver going. Jones is the team’s kick returner and is worth pairing with the Bears’ defense for a chance at the DST touchdown double dip in large-field tournaments.
Favorite Stack
Rhamondre Stevenson/ Justin Fields / Dante Pettis / Mac Jones
In a game where the Patriots should dominate, Stevenson will be the featured player in the Patriots’ offense. Pairing him with Mac Jones gives us exposure to all their offensive points, and even gives us a chance to double-dip with a receiving touchdown from Stevenson. Fields can make value with rushing alone, but Pettis is a strong low-rostered option in a middling price range that could pair with Fields for a touchdown.
New England Patriots Offense
Quarterback
Mac Jones: $9,800
Mac Jones is looking to return after an ankle sprain sidelined him for the past three games. The Patriots’ offense hardly knew he was gone, with Bailey Zappe capping off his three-game stint with a 300-yard performance. The Patriots’ offense has been easily projectable. Jones is going to complete roughly 20 passes while Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris lead the charge on the ground. Jones is worth Captain consideration due to his enticing salary.
Running back
Rhamondre Stevenson: $10,800
Rhamondre Stevenson has been incredible for fantasy production over the past two weeks, but Damien Harris is returning this week. There isn’t much certainty on how the backfield will shape out as the backs had a 50/50 rotation for the first four weeks. Stevenson has earned the right to start, but Harris is likely to factor heavily. Stevenson is the preferred option even at his elevated cost given his receiving usage; especially paired with Jones.
Damien Harris: $8,400
If Damien Harris and Stevenson are flipping roles from the first four weeks, we expect Harris to see roughly 10 carries and split goal-line duties. In most games, $8,200 is far too expensive for 10 touches, but with such a low total Harris is worth playing in the flex, even in lineups that include Stevenson, and pairs well with the Patriots’ defense.
Receiver
Jakobi Meyers: $8,200
Jakobi Meyers is amongst the league leaders in target share and has been Jones’s favorite receiver. Contrary to recent years, Meyers is loading the box score. In his four games, he’s reached the 100-yard bonus once and flirted with it in another. With so much attention focused on the rushing attacks, and specifically Harris for just $200 more, Meyers is the far preferred option at reasonable ownership.
DeVante Parker: $7,000
When DeVante Parker is the lead receiver, he’s gotten the volume needed to succeed. If Meyers is active in week seven, Parker’s role will not be large enough to pay off his price tag. He demonstrated an unexpected ceiling in week three with 156 yards, but he’s seen less than two targets in four of six games. He can be safely avoided if both Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are active.
Tyquan Thornton: $6,600
Tyquan Thornton has seen a huge salary boost after four receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown last week. DraftKings is apparently on board with an increased role for the second-round rookie going forward. He and Parker are going to be like Michael Gallup and Noah Brown in that they limit each other’s ceilings. Both Parker and Thornton could fall into the optimal lineup, but we have cheaper Patriots receivers with similar upside.
Nelson Agholor: $5,800
Nelson Agholor is averaging around three targets per game. He missed last week and was targeted just once in Week 5 while playing on 12% of the snaps before injury. If healthy he should be playing on roughly 50% of the snaps. He’s yet another member of the Patriots wide receiver group vying for a handful of those 20 completions. With such an ambiguous wide receiver corps and so few pass attempts, we will lean into ownership and savings as the deciding factor in who we play.
Hunter Henry: $5,000
Hunter Henry caught a touchdown last week and has seen increased usage over the past three weeks. He’s a similar play to Kmet but allows us to stack the Patriots rather than the Bears.
Punt plays
Kendrick Bourne: $3,000
Kendrick Bourne has clicked at times in this offense and is only $3,000 in his first game back from injury. The Patriots receiving corps is wide open outside of Meyers so Bourne is a punt worth playing.
Favorite Stack
Jakobi Meyers / Mac Jones / Rhamondre Stevenson / Cairo Santos
Much of the field is going to focus on how boring this game is set to be, and immediately focus on the run game. Meyers should go under-rostered at Captain and pairs well with Jones. Stevenson is the preferred Patriots back to pair with Jones due to his outside shot at catching a touchdown pass. This stack eats up a large portion of the budget, so Santos is a strong return option for savings on a Bears team that should struggle to find the endzone.