With the Divisional Round upon us, we are coming to the end of the NFL DFS season.
That means we need to take full advantage of the time we have left, and these playoff short slates offer a lot of opportunities.
I will focus more on DraftKings here since they have included all four games in their main slate, but I will point out any pricing anomalies that stand out at FanDuel — spoiler alert: there is a big one.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Divisional Round DFS.
Make sure to check out Rich Hribar's Worksheet previews for all four games
Quarterback
As with all short slates, you can make a case for any of the available quarterbacks, especially with the price discount to some of the lower-end options, so I think it is important to look at the projected game states and roster percentage before talking about specific plays.
The Vegas game totals give us two clear games to target:
- Commanders @ Lions — 55.5 point total
- Ravens @ Bills — 51.5 point total
The Lions have the largest implied point total at 32.5 points followed by a tight grouping of the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Commanders.
The Rams and Texans are well behind that middle group, so unsurprisingly, Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud project to be the two least-used options on the board.
Jayden Daniels projects to be the most rostered quarterback, which makes sense.
If that game hits the lofty point total, it will likely be because Daniels has driven the Commanders to a big offensive game.
The Lions have other avenues to score beyond Jared Goff, especially with David Montgomery back healthy, which explains why Goff might not be as popular even at a small discount. That said, Goff will still be in a lot of lineups.
Patrick Mahomes is the interesting name here because he has not had a great fantasy season, is not in a game that projects for a ton of points — lowest total on the board — and does not have a particularly good matchup.
Even so, roster projections suggest he will be popular, though I wonder how accurate those will be given the other options.
Mahomes does come at a discount, but will people just chase the game environment for Goff for a little more salary? It will be interesting to see.
Jared Goff ($6,300 DK, $8,000 FD)
As said above, Goff is going to be popular, but he will not be as popular as Daniels in the same game.
Over the last five weeks of the season, Goff was the QB4 in fantasy points per game, throwing for 15 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions.
The Lions ranked 17th in neutral pass rate over that stretch after ranking 31st over the first 13 weeks.
Even if we remove his 59-attempt game against the Bills in Week 15 from that span, Goff was fourth among all quarterbacks in total attempts.
The Commanders can get some pressure, but Goff is coming off the best season of his career against pressure (ninth in yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks) and absolutely eats up even good defenses when kept clean.
The Commanders rank 27th in yards per attempt allowed and touchdown rate allowed when they do not get pressure.
Washington's run defense is bad, and the Lions might just try to control the game that way.
But if the Commanders offense efficiently moves the ball and scores like they can, that could push more volume to the Detroit passing game, and there is every reason to believe those extra attempts will be successful in this matchup.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,000 DK, $7,700 FD)
I ultimately do not think Mahomes will be as popular as the current projections expect, so I will roll the dice with him.
As mentioned above, this is not a slam dunk spot for Mahomes, but there are a few things I like.
First, Mahomes was actually a decent fantasy option in the second half of the season.
From Week 10 on, he was the QB9 in fantasy points per game, and he was the QB7 in the two weeks with Marquise Brown back in the lineup, even in a reduced role.
Second, the passing game is a lot healthier coming into the playoffs, and we could see an expanded role for both Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, who has run a route on 56.5% of the dropbacks since coming to Kansas City.
Those extra options could make stacking difficult, but it is good for Mahomes overall. Ultimately, his passing game weapons are better this year than they were even with a healthy Rashee Rice last season.
Finally, I expect the Chiefs to throw.
Their running game has been inefficient all year, even when Isiah Pacheco has been healthy, and the Chiefs still ranked second in neutral pass rate in the regular season.
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Running Back
There are some absolute stud running back options this week, and they will be rightfully popular.
Even with David Montgomery back, Jahmyr Gibbs should get a lot of touches against a weak run defense.
The Bills do not seem particularly well set up to slow down Derrick Henry, who has been running roughshod over everyone including a 24-199-1 line against the Bills back in Week 4.
Speaking of rematches, the last time Saquon Barkley played the Rams, he went for 302 total yards and 2 touchdowns.
All of those guys are worth playing and mixing and matching for those building a lot of lineups, but I want to focus on some other options.
Just as a note, it looks like Joe Mixon is going to play on Saturday, but if he does not, I would still be hesitant about chasing Dameon Pierce even at a low price ($4,200 DK, $4,500 FD).
Even with Mixon, the Texans have struggled to create running lanes against good run defenses, and the Chiefs were second in yards per carry allowed to running backs (3.8) in the regular season.
The projected game script might also hurt him.
Pierce ran 49 routes in 11 games this season compared to 189 for Dare Ogunbowale, who would likely take on most of the passing down work if Mixon sits.
David Montgomery ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)
Montgomery has to get mentioned because he is essentially a free square at FanDuel, where he is min-priced.
He will also be popular on DraftKings for good reason.
The Commanders were 30th in the league in yards per carry allowed on running back runs (4.9), 31st in explosive run rate allowed to RBs (13.2%), and 26th in rushing touchdowns allowed to RBs (16).
Before his injury, Montgomery was not just being used as an early-down option, either.
Over the first 14 weeks, Montgomery had just two fewer catches than Jahmyr Gibbs.
The two concerns are about how popular Montgomery will be and the possibility he is eased back into action coming back from what was originally believed to be a season-ending knee injury.
Based on that, we also have to be concerned about an in-game aggravation.
He practiced in full all week, though, suggesting he is as close to 100 percent as possible.
Ty Johnson ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD)
The Bills have been successful in getting James Cook going as a runner as of late, but they will likely find the road a little rockier against the Ravens.
Baltimore ranked first in the regular season in yards per carry allowed on running back runs, and Cook was limited to 39 yards on just 9 carries in the first matchup between these teams since the Bills got behind early.
A repeat of that kind of game script is the reason to chase Johnson in this spot.
The Ravens rank 26th in receiving points allowed to running backs, and Johnson has been getting those opportunities much more than Cook this season.
Over the final five games of the season (not counting when the Bills rested players in Week 18), Johnson ran 1 more route than Cook and saw 4 more targets.
The difference was more pronounced on third down.
Johnson ran 31 routes over that span on third down compared to just 1 for Cook.
Johnson stacked some touches late last week, but even in the first three quarters he ran 4 more routes than Cook and again was the only option on passing downs.
So if the Bills end up having to chase this game again, Johnson will likely get a lot of that work.
That makes pairing him with Henry very interesting since the same game script that would result in more work for Johnson should also result in a lot more work for Henry, especially in the second half where the big back thrives.
Wide Receiver
Like at running back, we have some elite options at the top of the receiver group, and you could make a case for any of Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
A.J. Brown is also in that group from a price perspective, but he is tougher to trust given the projected game state and the Eagles' willingness to simply not throw the ball unless they are forced into doing it.
Interestingly, St. Brown is the top-priced receiver at FanDuel but third at DraftKings, a scoring system that fits him a little better, but he has been a top option in all scoring systems, especially over the back half of the season.
Of the top three, I have the most concerns about Collins because of what the Chiefs have done to No. 1 receiving options.
They are fourth in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (13.3 per game) and second in yards per target allowed to those pass catchers (7.1).
They should also be getting back Jaylen Watson, and they were No. 1 with a bullet in yards per target allowed to receivers with Watson healthy over the first seven weeks of the season and third in PPR points allowed to the position.
Terry McLaurin ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD)
Really going out on a limb with this one…..
McLaurin is priced just below that top four on each site, and he should be pretty popular.
While he has not been as good against man coverage as zone this season, the Lions were 28th in fantasy points allowed to WR1 targets in the regular season, and McLaurin is a great bet for a touchdown.
He has 42.9% of the team’s end zone targets, sixth in the league.
McLaurin has 12 touchdowns on throws into the end zone this season, the most in the league.
Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is undoubtedly a good play, but Williams is very interesting given his mixture of target share and big-play ability.
Since returning from suspension, Williams has seen at least 19% of Detroit's targets in eight of nine games, and he caught at least 5 passes in six of the final seven games.
That usage gave him a nice floor to match with the explosive plays he created all season.
Williams averaged 17.3 yards per reception, the most for any player with 40 or more catches this season.
He had 5 receiving touchdowns of 37 yards or longer and had another 41-yard touchdown on a lateral.
Washington has actually been good at limiting big plays, but Williams offers the perfect DFS mix of projectable usage with the ability to score a lot of points on one play.
Xavier Worthy ($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD)
Worthy is similar to Williams given how his usage spiked late in the season.
Over the final five games the starters played, Worthy had just 1 fewer target than Travis Kelce while running a route on 80.8% of Kansas City's dropbacks.
With Marquise Brown back over the final two of those games, Worthy led the team with 20 targets and was targeted on 27.8% of his routes. He ran a route on 85.7% of Kansas City's dropbacks.
There is some concern we could see more snaps for Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in the playoffs, and we saw the Chiefs ramp up Kelce's usage in the postseason last year.
Worthy has been effective with his extra work, though, and did have a solid 7-65-1 game against these Texans back in Week 16.
As one more added note, the Texans have been susceptible to big plays this season.
They have allowed a league-high 17 passing touchdowns outside the red zone including one last week.
Khalil Shakir ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD)
Shakir will likely be more popular at DraftKings than FanDuel because of the scoring system, but he is priced well at both sites given his status as the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo.
While every other Bills receiver is in a rotation, Shakir played 71.9% of the passing down snaps against the Broncos and saw 24% of the targets.
Over the final five games with the starters playing, Shakir ran a route on 78.8% of the dropbacks and had a 24.1% target share.
The next closest Bill was Amari Cooper at 15.6%.
The concern for Shakir, especially at FanDuel, is his ultimate upside given his limited touchdown equity.
Despite easily leading the Bills in targets, he was fifth on the team in targets into the end zone, tied with Ty Johnson and Curtis Samuel.
He also topped 100 yards just twice this season, and those were his only games with more than 72 receiving yards.
Shakir can get there based on his price and the game shooting out, but there are some concerns given how popular he will be.
John Metchie ($3,800 DK)
With Robert Woods almost certainly sitting and Diontae Johnson no longer on the team, Metchie is the last guy standing beside Nico Collins in the receiver room.
Okay. Xavier Hutchinson is there, too, but Metchie actually gets targets.
Despite a fumble, Metchie tied Collins for the team lead with 8 targets against the Chargers, which he turned into 28 yards on 4 catches.
As mentioned above, the Chiefs have been good against receivers all season and are getting a key piece back in the secondary, but they have been more forgiving to slot options.
Metchie played half of his snaps from the slot last week and could get even more time there with Woods out.
Metchie has averaged 10.3 yards per catch with 1 career touchdown on 67 targets, so I am not that interested in chasing him at FanDuel, but he could get a surprising number of targets, especially if the Chiefs can shut down Collins.
Tylan Wallace ($3,000 DK, $4,500)
Know what you are getting into here because Wallace could certainly just goose egg.
That said, Wallace ran the most routes among the secondary receivers last week with Zay Flowers out, which he is expected to be against against the Bills.
He finished with 2 targets, the same number as Rashod Bateman.
If the Ravens are forced to throw more, Wallace could get some opportunities in a good matchup.
The Bills were 28th in yards per target allowed to receivers in the regular season (8.6) and 20th in PPR points allowed.
We have also already seen a big game from Wallace this season.
He went for 115 yards and a touchdown on 3 targets against the Bengals back in Week 10.
Again, he is min-priced at DraftKings and near it at FanDuel for a reason. He could just get 0 targets.
But if you need Wallace to make some higher-priced options fit, there are at least some reasons for hope.
Tight End
Overall roster percentage projects to be relatively flat at tight end this week.
While there are some big names and some good matchups, it is easy to poke holes in all of the top guys.
Mixing and matching those names and hoping to hit on the big game makes some sense, but there is one lower-priced option that stands out.
Isaiah Likely ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD)
It could all blow up in my face, but Likely appears to be the clear best play when considering price at the tight end position.
Zay Flowers is once again going to sit out this week, and that should mean we see a lot of Likely on the field.
Likely has run a route on 70% of the dropbacks with at least one of Flowers or Rashod Bateman off the field this season.
He leads the team in target share and averaged 2.51 yards per route run on those plays.
For reference, George Kittle led qualified tight ends with 2.65 yards per route run this season.
Last week, Likely ran a route on 76% of Baltimore's dropbacks and tied for the team lead in targets.
That was only four targets because the Ravens were not pushed to throw, something that also happened in the first meeting with the Bills, but it is fair to expect more than 21 pass attempts from Lamar Jackson this week.
The Bills have been good against tight ends this season and got some key pieces back on defense, but they also gave up some big games to tight ends late in the year.
But this play is not about the matchup.
This is about getting a talented pass catcher who is likely to be on the field often at a low price in a game with the second-highest total on the slate.