Welcome to the Divisional Round of The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar.
What is The Worksheet from Rich Hribar?
The Worksheet is a comprehensive weekly fantasy football preview for each NFL game. Rich Hribar analyzes the matchups for every notable fantasy player for every game every week of the NFL season.
Divisional Round Fantasy Football Matchups
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Broncos | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Patriots | Sunday -- 3:00 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |
For those new to this article, just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean fantasy football stops.
The fantasy playoffs offer many new opportunities for playoff leagues, props betting, and daily fantasy games.
Wild Card Weekend provided some excellent games.
Four of the games were decided in the final minutes of action.
Two underdogs won outright, while dogs were 4-2 against the spread.
We have eight teams and seven games remaining in the NFL season.
Some Divisional Round recent history since the NFL’s last expansion to 32 teams in 2002.
Over that span, home teams have carried a significant edge.
Home teams have posted a strong 63-29 record.
Last season, they went 3-1.
However, home teams are just 41-50-1 against the spread.
Of course, that ties into favorites, with the favored team posting a 61-31 overall record (2-2 a year ago).
Those teams are 39-52-1 against the spread (0-3-1 a year ago).
Putting that together, home field has been a significant edge in this round of the postseason, but the games have typically been closer than the odds suggest.
Underdogs have had a strong run this round of the postseason covering the spread, but we have seen fewer outright upsets in the second round.
The last time we did not have at least two underdogs cover the point spread in the Divisional Round was in 2017, while the last time all four favorites covered the point spread in this round was in 2006.
If you are hunting for upsets, home underdogs are 3-1 in the Divisional Round since 2002.
A small sample since it is so rare, but this season we have the Broncos and Bears as home dogs.
We have a few large spreads this weekend.
If looking for larger upsets, underdogs getting 7 or more points have only posted a 13-32 record straight up.
Those teams have posted a 26-18-1 record against the spread but have struggled to pull off the huge upsets.
The Seahawks (-7.5) are the only favorite of a touchdown or more this weekend.
Surprisingly, we do not see many tight spreads in this round of the postseason.
Since 2002, we have had only 12 Divisional Round games in which a team was favored by less than a field goal.
Those teams are 6-6 heads up and against the spread.
Buffalo (-1.5) is a short road favorite this week.
Short home underdogs such as Denver are 2-1 in those games.
Just once since the expansion to 32 teams has the No. 1 seed been an underdog in this round, like Denver is.
That was the Eagles in 2017 against the Falcons.
The Eagles won that game 15-10.
Regarding seeding, the No. 1 seeds have a 33-14 straight-up record, but they are 18-28-1 against the spread.
Only twice over that span did both No. 1 seeds lose in the Divisional Round, in 2021 and 2008.
No. 2 seeds are 29-15 over that span and have been even against the spread (22-22).
If looking at teams that pulled off upsets in the Wild Card Round, the lower seeds have been tougher bets to keep pulling out wins.
No. 5 seeds or lower have a 13-30 record over that span in this round, but they have kept games closer than expected, going 25-18 against the spread.
This season, we have a No. 5 seed, the Rams, who are road favorites.
That has happened only twice since 2002.
The 2013 49ers were 1-point favorites against the Panthers, winning 23-10.
The second was the 2017 Falcons team that lost in Philadelphia.
Divisional Round games have been higher-scoring in recent seasons.
Over the past two seasons, games in this round have been 6-2 toward the over.
This article will be updated throughout the week to reflect major news or injury implications.
I encourage you to use the game-by-game tables and data points here in conjunction with the player rankings that will be available every Wednesday.
Enjoy the games!
Click the matchups below for the individual game previews.
Divisional Round Fantasy Football Matchups
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Broncos | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Patriots | Sunday -- 3:00 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Bears | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |