Best Divisional Round Quarterbacks: Fantasy Outlook for Every QB

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round. Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Full Game Divisional Round Fantasy Football Previews

Matthew Stafford

Stafford threw for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Wild Card Round in Carolina.

Stafford has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in 12 consecutive games, extending the longest streak of his career.

Only five quarterbacks have had a 13-game streak with multiple touchdowns through the air, while the record is 14 games.

Stafford did leave some meat on the bone last week despite the counting stats.

18.6% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse, which was 10th among playoff quarterbacks last week.

He completed 57.1% of his passes, his second-lowest rate of the season.

Stafford has now completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of his past four games after doing that only twice before Week 15.

Last week, we highlighted how Stafford and this passing game have been given trouble at times by defenses that can create pressure, disguise their coverages post-snap, are led by coaches who were previously with the Rams, and have generally been good at defending passes under center and play action.

The Bears are none of those things.

Chicago just allowed 323 yards and 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love on Saturday night.

The Bears are 28th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.480) for fantasy purposes, allowing a 65.5% completion rate (22nd), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (26th), 11.6 yards per completion (27th), and a 6.2% touchdown rate (30th).

One thing we also mentioned going into last week was that we were expecting the Rams to dial back their under-center and play-action rates.

Stafford was under center for 45.8% of his dropbacks, his third-lowest rate of the season.

The Rams used play-action on 16.7% of dropbacks, well below their season rate of 35.4% and the second lowest of the year.

I would anticipate those to flip here.

Against play action passing, the Bears have allowed a 67.9% completion rate (22nd), 9.0 yards per pass attempt (29th), and a 6.4% touchdown rate (23rd).

The Rams did raise their 11 personnel rate last week, as expected (59.7%), while decreasing play-action passing.

They used their heavy 13-personnel sets at a 31.9% rate.

The difference last week was that they did not pass a lot out of 13 (14% of their passing plays) and used it primarily to run (58.6% of their rushing plays).

We have a tiny sample of Chicago facing 13 personnel this season (27 snaps), but on those snaps, they have played nickel at the second-highest rate in the league (33.3%) behind only Seattle.

I do believe the Rams' heavy sets put Chicago in a bind.

They do not have a hybrid-type player like Seattle's Nick Emmanwori.

They also just lost T.J. Edwards last week, their best two-way defender in the run and pass game.

If Chicago matches the Rams' 13 with base defense, they'll see a lot of play-action passing.

If they combat those 13 sets with nickel, the Rams will run.

Stafford has had a lot of success against Dennis Allen.

In six career games against his defenses, Stafford has thrown 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt.

He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all six games.

In his two games against Allen-led defenses with Sean McVay, Stafford has thrown for 8.8 yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt.

One thing circling this game is that the expected forecast is expected to be frigid in Chicago for a night game in January (who knew?).

Stafford passed for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns in a snowstorm in last year’s playoff loss to a much more formidable defense in Philadelphia.

He has not played a game below 20 degrees since 2017 in Green Bay, but he had 323 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game.