The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Vikings and Packers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 23.2 | 14 | Points/Gm | 20.2 | 26 |
| 21.7 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 19.6 | 7 |
| 60.0 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 56.1 | 30 |
| 63.2 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 10 |
| 5.6 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 28 |
| 5 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 3 |
| 47.7% | 6 | Rush% | 43.0% | 19 |
| 52.3% | 27 | Pass% | 57.0% | 14 |
| 44.3% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 51.6% | 32 |
| 55.7% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 48.4% | 1 |
- The Packers scored 23 points off takeaways last season, ahead of only the Jets.
- Minnesota allowed a league-low 32 pass plays of 20-plus yards in 2025.
- The Packers converted 48.8% of their third downs in 2025, second in the league.
- Minnesota converted a league-low 31.8% of third downs last season.
- Green Bay converted a league-high 38.4% of third downs needing 7 or more yards. The league average was 24.6%.
- The Vikings converted a league-low 42% of third downs needing 3 or fewer yards. The league average was 60%.
- The Vikings had a 40.4% success rate on pass plays in 2025 (27th), down from 45.5% over the previous three seasons (9th).
- The Vikings had -101.9 EPA on sacks last season, ahead of only the Titans (-109.9).
- Minnesota allowed a 42.9% touchdown rate on opponent trips to the red zone (21 of 49), second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Packers vs. Vikings Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Jordan Love
Love finished sixth in quarterback rating (101.2) last year, completing 66.3% of his passes (15th) for 7.7 yards per pass attempt (8th), 11.6 yards per completion (10th), a 5.2% touchdown rate (10th), and a 1.4% interception rate (6th).
He posted a career-high 47.3% success rate (7th) and was second in the league in EPA per dropback (0.22).
Those numbers came in a season filled with injuries throughout the offense, especially on the offensive line.
Love was pressured on 39.5% of his dropbacks, a career high.
The starting offensive line was on the field together for only 17.6% of offensive snaps last season, which ranked 30th in the league.
With Zach Bako-Bewele on the field last season, Love faced pressure on 37.3% of his dropbacks, compared to 44% with Bako-Bewele off the field.
With Bako-Bewele on the field, Love had a 1% interception rate and a 3.2% sack rate.
With Bako-Bewele off the field, Love had a 2.1% interception rate and a 7.2% sack rate.
Love also had a revolving door of pass catchers.
Tucker Kraft was on his way to a massive breakout season before an ACL injury cut his season short in Week 9.
Romeo Doubs was the only Green Bay wide receiver to run a route on 50% of the dropbacks last season (74.3%).
Christian Watson started the season recovering from an ACL injury he suffered in 2024.
A fractured collarbone in Week 2 derailed Jayden Reed‘s 2025 season.
Matthew Golden sustained a shoulder injury in Week 10 that limited him for the rest of the year.
Love himself was part of those injuries on offense.
He missed two full games and left another in the first half.
Love is still at his apex (turning 28 this season), but another factor at play that could boost him in fantasy is that the Packers may have to drop back to throw more.
The Packers have ranked 29th and 31st in dropback rate over the past two seasons.
The defense looks worse on paper, and Micah Parsons will miss the start of the season.
We also have the matter surrounding Josh Jacobs, who will not play for the time being.
All of that points to more passing and could open up more upside for Love in the big picture of the season, but I'd still prefer to use him as a QB2 in this spot.
The Vikings were eighth in passing points allowed per attempt last year.
They allowed a 62.6% completion rate (11th), 6.9 yards per attempt (12th), and a 3.4% touchdown rate (4th).
In five career starts against Brian Flores-led defenses, Love has thrown for 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
Love has two high-end scoring weeks against those defenses for those playing for the upside, but also three other weeks as QB18 or lower.
In this matchup a year ago, Love was QB26 (7.1 points).
Flores will throw a lot at this offensive line, which already has questions.
Bako-Bewele is back, but the rest of this Green Bay unit has some concerns.
Jordan Morgan is moving to left tackle.
Selected in the first round in 2024 (25th overall), Morgan played snaps at left tackle (51), left guard (191), right guard (358), and right tackle (219) last season.
Sean Rhyan played 524 snaps at center last year and was one of the worst interior pass protectors in the league.
Rhyan allowed a 5.7% pressure rate, which ranked 41st out of 45 centers to play 100 or more snaps last season.
He only played roughly half the season and allowed the fifth-most pressures at the position.
Anthony Belton was a second-round pick last year (54th overall), and he was forced into the lineup and thrown into the fire as a rookie.
Belton played 463 snaps at right guard, allowing a team-high 9.5% pressure rate, which ranked 93rd out of 96 guards to play 100-plus snaps.
To compound the injuries and young players forced into the lineup, Aaron Banks struggled.
Banks was 61st among guards in total grade per Pro Football Focus last year, allowing a 6% pressure rate (69th) and a run grade that ranked 60th.
Flores has blitzed Love on 46.7% of his dropbacks across five matchups, with rates of 52.9% and 47.8% in the past two meetings.
When the Vikings have pressured Love, he has completed 50.9% of his passes for 5.6 Y/A.
While I do give Flores the benefit of the doubt for creating chaos, this Minnesota defense has a lot of moving parts up front.
Jonathan Greenard, Jonathan Allen, and Javon Hargrave are no longer on the roster.
Dallas Turner made strides last year in his second season, but they're asking a lot of young players up front.
Rookies Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange should play significant snaps as Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins and Levi Drake Rodriguez are unproven Day 3 players.
Kyler Murray
Murray is coming off a 2025 season in which he played only five games due to a foot injury.
Even before that, Murray was off to the worst start of his career, throwing for a career-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt and posting his lowest passing yardage per game.
For fantasy purposes, Murray was QB14 or worse in all five games he played, posting his fewest fantasy points per game of his career.
Over the past four years, Murray has had just one top-three scoring week and seven top-six scoring weeks in his 41 games.
The early concerns for Murray and Kevin O'Connell will be the marriage of his scheme and Murray's playstyle.
O'Connell has utilized a high rate of under-center passing and play action, both of which Murray has used sparingly.
Minnesota passers have been under center for 46.9% of their snaps under O'Connell, the third-highest rate in the league over the past four seasons.
In 2025, that rate was 44.8% (8th).
Playing under center more often has led to a 29.7% play-action rate under O'Connell, fourth in the NFL.
In 2025, Minnesota had a 27.7% play-action rate (9th highest).
Kyler has been under center for 14.7% of his career snaps.
Only Jalen Hurts (14.4%) and Jayden Daniels (7.6%) have lower rates since Murray entered the league.
Murray has used play action on 21.5% of his dropbacks, 27th in the league since his rookie season.
The positive news is that Murray has been successful under center and in play action (203 career dropbacks), completing 68% of his passes for 8.5 Y/A and a 5.8% touchdown rate.
We have seen strong play in this system before, so Murray is an upside QB2.
While Murray has dipped as a passer in recent seasons, he can still use his legs.
He has rushed for at least 30 yards per game in every season of his career.
Before his injury last season, Murray had a career-high 8.8% scramble rate.
Murray was averaging 8.5 yards per scramble and 29.0 scramble yards per game, which was third in the league.
Green Bay hired Jonathan Gannon as defensive coordinator, who has plenty of familiarity with Murray.
Gannon will be tasked with getting more out of this unit, especially with Micah Parsons out to open the year.
Without Parsons on the field last year (204 dropbacks), Green Bay allowed a 67% completion rate (27th) with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception.
With Parsons sidelined, the Packers allowed a 4.9% touchdown rate with a sack rate of only 3.7%.
With Parsons on the field, they allowed a 4.1% touchdown rate with a 7.3% sack rate.
Packers vs. Vikings Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Wednesday Night Football |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |