The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 8 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 8 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 18.5 | ||
| 22.9 | 19 | Points/Gm | 16.3 | 30 |
| 20.4 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 26.2 | 25 |
| 62.4 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 56.3 | 31 |
| 58.9 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 20 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 46.7% | 9 | Rush% | 50.6% | 1 |
| 53.3% | 24 | Pass% | 49.4% | 32 |
| 41.3% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 48.7% | 30 |
| 58.7% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 51.3% | 3 |
- New England is averaging 2.88 points per drive over the past four weeks (3rd) after a league-low 0.97 points per drive prior.
- Miami allows 2.75 points per drive on defense, 31st in the league.
- Miami has scored 2.74 points per drive over their past two games (6th in the league) after a league-low 1.24 points per drive prior.
- 33.5% of New England's passing plays have gained 10 or more yards, the league's highest rate.
- Miami has a 34.1% success rate on passing plays, 31st in the league.
- The Dolphins have run the ball on a league-high 71.7% of red-zone plays.
- The Patriots have allowed 40 points off turnovers this season, 28th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Patriots vs. Dolphins Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Drake Maye (TRUST)
Maye is on a roll, ripping off four straight weeks as the QB1, QB1, QB3, and QB2 in weekly scoring.
He has thrown 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the past four weeks, completing 67.2% of his passes (10th) for a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt and a league-high 9% touchdown rate.
He has gotten the deep ball back, averaging 9.5 air yards per attempt over that span, second in the league.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield over that stretch, Maye has completed 31 of 48 passes (64.6%), third in the league, with a league-high 8 touchdowns.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Miami has allowed a league-high 66.7% completion rate (30 of 45) for a league-high 15.8 yards per pass attempt.
77.8% (14 of 18) of the touchdowns against Miami have come through the air, the highest rate in the league.
The only quarterback who did not throw multiple touchdown passes against Miami was Kyler Murray.
The Dolphins are 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.61).
Offenses against them have thrown 3.0% more than expected (7th), and they have allowed a higher pass rate than expected in five straight games.
That is still only an expected 52.7% dropback rate, but Miami has put up a fight for three straight games and forced passers to throw 37, 32, and 30 times over the span while still allowing efficiency per attempt.
Miami has often put up a fight against New England at home, winning five of the past six home games, but Maye won his only start there a year ago in a 33-27 game.
Malik Willis
Willis is coming off his best game of the season on Sunday, closing the week as the QB4 (26 points).
As a passer, Willis completed a season-high 66.7% (14 of 21) of his passes for 208 yards, throwing for a season-high 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 2 touchdowns.
It was his first multi-touchdown passing game this season.
He also ran 8 times for 37 yards and a score.
Willis has finally strung together some rushing consistency, raising his floor.
He has rushed for 5.6, 1.1, 13.4, and 9.7 fantasy points over the past four games, with the one down week in that stretch coming against the Vikings.
Outside of the Minnesota game, he has 9, 8, and 8 rushing attempts over that span.
Willis is still a volatile passer.
Last week was his first game with over 6.0 Y/A since Week 2, and it was his first QB1 scoring week of the year, so we will keep things in perspective with him as a floor-based QB2 who can get over when the rushing and passing efficiency come together.
That said, Miami has played competent football for most of the past four weeks.
They have over 300 yards of offense in three of their past four games, with the exception being the Minnesota game.
This is still a matchup to keep expectations in check.
New England can rush the passer, ranking seventh in pressure rate (39.1%).
The only team Willis has faced that's been better at rushing the passer this season is the Vikings.
When Willis has been pressured, he has thrown for 5.1 yards per pass attempt (23rd) with a 5.4% interception rate (29th) and a 21.1% sack rate (24th).
The Patriots will give up some explosive plays, though, which Willis has lived on.
The Patriots are allowing 11.2 yards per completion (19th) and a 47.6% completion rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield (22nd).
Patriots vs. Dolphins Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 8 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 8 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Panthers @ Packers | Thursday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |