The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Patriots-Jaguars Week 3 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 15.0 | 26 | Points/Gm | 23.5 | 15 |
| 8.0 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 15.0 | 6 |
| 60.0 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 55.5 | 27 |
| 57.5 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 54.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 22 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 9 |
| 4.5 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 29 |
| 49.2% | 8 | Rush% | 50.5% | 5 |
| 50.8% | 25 | Pass% | 49.6% | 28 |
| 39.1% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 46.3% | 20 |
| 60.9% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 53.7% | 13 |
- The Patriots are averaging 1.15 points per drive through two weeks, 30th in the league. They averaged 2.60 points per drive in 2025 (4th).
- New England has allowed a league-low 0.73 points per drive on defense.
- The Patriots have allowed a league-low 19.2 yards per possession.
- The Jaguars are allowing a league-high 6.9 yards per play on early downs.
- The Patriots have allowed a league-best 17.4% (4 of 23) conversion rate on third downs.
- Jacksonville has allowed a pass play of 20 or more yards on a league-high 15.1% of dropbacks.
Trust = spike production for that player
Patriots vs. Jaguars Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Trevor Lawrence
It had been a while since Lawrence and this Jacksonville passing game looked mortal, but it happened on Sunday in Denver.
Lawrence ended Week 2 as the QB30 (6.2 points).
That snapped a nine-game streak in which Lawrence was a top-12 scorer, going back to last season.
It was also his worst fantasy game since Week 10 of the 2023 season.
Lawrence completed 58.6% (17 of 29) of his passes for 189 yards (6.5 Y/A) with no touchdowns and an interception.
This coming a week after I caved and finally just accepted that his daunting early-season schedule may not be that relevant after all, given how incredible the offense looked in Week 1.
Denver got Jacksonville into a static dropback game.
Lawrence used play action on 13.8% of his dropbacks, his lowest rate in a game since Week 4 of 2023.
The Jaguars were under center for 29.1% of Lawrence's snaps, down from a career-high 59.2% in Week 1.
That was his lowest rate in a game since Week 7 of last year, when the Rams beat him in London.
I don't believe one road game against a good defense eager to prove itself after a lousy Week 1 makes us throw out the goodwill the Jacksonville offense and Lawrence have built up.
We have another test this weekend with New England coming into Jacksonville.
The Patriots have allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 1 passing touchdown through two games.
New England does a great job of disguising coverages.
Per Fantasy Points data, they are second in the NFL in post-snap look altering from pre-snap.
They lead the league in the rate of flipping from single-high pre-snap to two-high post-snap.
This one cuts both ways, however.
New England has opened the year facing Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers.
In last year's playoffs, they faced Sam Darnold, Jarrett Stidham, C.J. Stroud, and Justin Herbert.
During last year's regular season, the best quarterbacks New England faced were Josh Allen twice, Baker Mayfield, and I suppose Jaxson Dart as the third-best.
They did face Lamar Jackson, but he was injured in the first half.
Mayfield (22.9 points) and one of Allen's games (24.5 points) delivered QB1 weeks.
I definitely buy that New England has a good defense, which makes this a good matchup.
With respect for both sides, I have Lawrence as a fringe QB1, pretty much treating him like we have Joe Burrow to open the season in his tough draws.
I also believe this game has shootout potential.
The Patriots play a lot of man coverage, which inherently makes sense given Christian Gonzalez.
New England has opened this year fifth in rate of man coverage (30.4%), up from ninth in 2025 (28.1%).
Since last season, Lawrence has seen man coverage only 22.3% of the time.
On those snaps, Lawrence has averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt (4th).
Since New England does play more man coverage, they also blitz a lot.
They are fourth in blitz rate (42.5%) to open the year.
Against the blitz under Liam Coen, Lawrence has averaged 8.4 Y/A (4th).
Drake Maye
Maye has had a rough start, posting weeks as the QB27 (9.8 points) and QB25 (8.0 points).
He is currently 20th in yards per pass attempt (7.0) and 29th in touchdown rate (1.8%) through two weeks.
He has played Seattle and Pittsburgh for an excuse, but this goes back to last season.
Until Maye and this offense punch up in competition, the questions about their ability to post points against front-end defense will remain.
Going back to last year, Maye has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in seven consecutive games.
The positive news is that the Jags are a pass defense with several questions.
This is arguably the lightest pass defense he has played since before last year's playoffs.
They are a great run defense, but that typically pushes teams to throw.
Both Deshaun Watson and Bo Nix have thrown for 9.3 yards per pass attempt against Jacksonville to open the season.
Both completed over 70% of their passes.
But Jacksonville has been more bend-but-don't-break, holding each to 1 touchdown pass (and Watson's output was largely cosmetic late in the game).
There are some pulling elements in play for Maye as Michael Onwenu heads to injured reserve.
Greg Van Roten came in for Onwenu last week and struggled, allowing 2 pressures.
The New England wide receiver room still lacks front-end talent.
Maye has a wider range of outcomes.
This game could be like the Denver/Jacksonville game last week, but I still believe his ceiling is high enough in a shootout that he warrants being a back-end QB1/high QB2 with upside.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 3 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Falcons @ Packers | Thursday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Broncos | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Bears | Monday Night Football |