The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Patriots and Raiders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 18.2 | 29 | Points/Gm | 17.0 | 30 |
| 25.5 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 24.5 | 21 |
| 62.6 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 26 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 24 |
| 4.8 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 29 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 18 |
| 35.68% | 30 | Rush% | 43.43% | 16 |
| 64.32% | 3 | Pass% | 56.57% | 17 |
| 43.11% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 47.47% | 27 |
| 56.89% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 52.53% | 6 |
- This marks the end of the longest active streak for a team being an underdog. New England was the only team that was not favored in any game last season.
- The Raiders allowed 29.5 yards per drive last season, 10th in the NFL.
- The Patriots allowed 33.7 yards per drive last year, which ranked 27th.
- The Raiders scored a touchdown on 15.2% of their possessions in 2024, ahead of only the Browns (13.4%).
- The Patriots averaged a league-low 2.4 sacks plus takeaways per game in 2024.
- The Raiders posted -101.4 expected points added as a rushing offense in 2024, dead last in the league.
- Las Vegas running backs had a league-worst 29.0% success rate per rush.
- The Patriots posted an EPA of -80.9 as a rushing offense, ranking 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Taking over as the starter in Week 6, Maye completed 67% of his passes (11th) for 6.8 yards per pass attempt (24th) with a 4.5% touchdown rate (18th) from that point through the remainder of the season.
Maye’s top-down numbers as a rookie don’t stand out as much compared to the rookie breakouts we've been spoiled with in recent seasons, but he more than passed the eye and smell test in his initial sample in the NFL.
Especially within the context of what this offense was working with.
Even with his limited efficiency, Maye was the QB7 in fantasy points scored in his full games as a rookie.
His expected 18.1 points per game over that stretch were good for QB10, which is on par with his projection on my end.
The team has four new starters on the offensive line and a low bar for improvement up front.
They ended the season ranking 31st in ESPN’s pass block win rate (51%).
At Pro Football Focus, they were 31st in pass blocking grade.
From a clean pocket during his time as a starter, Maye was 17th in EPA per dropback, a few spots higher than rookie of the year Jayden Daniels.
The Patriots initiated a transition to upgrade their unit up front by signing veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury while using the No. 4 overall pick on tackle Will Campbell and then adding left guard Jared Wilson in Round 3.
Two of those new starters are rookies, something to price in, but the bar is low for this front to be better than where it left off in 2024.
Maye will also have an improved set of pass catchers in Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson.
In 2024, New England wide receivers caught a combined 161 receptions (28th) for a league-low 1,723 yards and 10 touchdowns (tied for the second fewest).
We should also consider the return of Josh McDaniels as a potential upgrade.
Maye also comes with some rushing upside.
He added 409 rushing yards after taking over as the starter, which trailed only Jayden Daniels (564), Lamar Jackson (489), and Jalen Hurts (467) during that stretch.
Even in his limited sample, Maye was second among quarterbacks with 407 yards scrambling.
His scrambling could come down in a better offense, but Maye scrambled on 13.3% of his dropbacks in the preseason, so perhaps it will just be something static.
Maye is an upside option on the QB1/QB2 line to kick things off in 2025.
The moving parts could take some time to gel, but Maye gets to open the year at home as a favorite against a defense with several questions.
Pete Carroll retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
Las Vegas ranked below the fold in pass defense a year ago, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (19th) and a 5.2% touchdown rate (25th).
Despite having Maxx Crosby, they ranked 27th in pressure rate (30.3%).
When they failed to get pressure, they allowed 7.6 yards per attempt (21st).
Las Vegas also has nearly an entirely new secondary, which Pro Football Focus ranked as the worst in the league this offseason.
We also ranked them last in the league.
Geno Smith: The Raiders made an aggressive move this offseason, trading a third-round pick to acquire Smith.
In doing so, Smith was reunited with Pete Carroll, whom the Raiders hired this offseason.
Smith revitalized a dormant career under Carroll in Seattle.
Smith started 53 games for Seattle, and since the 2021 season, he has completed 68.5% of his passes (fourth in the NFL).
This is a significant quarterback upgrade.
Las Vegas passers were 27th in the NFL this past season with an 82.4 rating.
They ranked 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.05) with a 37.8% success rate (29th).
While Smith has enjoyed a turnaround in his career, he has still been one of the most sensitive passers to pressure.
Since 2021, Smith has ranked eighth in yards per pass attempt when kept clean (8.1) and seventh in interception rate (1.2%), but when pressured, he drops down to 22nd in yards per pass attempt (5.9) with a 3.9% interception rate (32nd).
The Patriots struggled to get to the quarterback in 2024, ranking 29th in pressure rate (29.1%).
New England spent a significant amount of money on their defense this offseason, which was 25th in passing points allowed per attempt a year ago.
They added Milton Williams, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Carlton Davis as starters.
They hired Terrell Williams as defensive coordinator, his first time with that role in the NFL.
Williams was with the Lions last season as a defensive line coach and served under Mike Vrabel in that role with the Titans during Vrabel’s years there.
Smith has also had issues in the red zone.
Over the past four seasons, he has completed only 49.3% of his passes in the red zone (36th).
That was playing with a stronger pass-catching corps than the one he is inheriting in Las Vegas.
While Smith is an upgrade over what the Raiders have pushed out on the field in recent years, he means more for the Las Vegas pass catchers than elevating his fantasy stock.
Smith has finished as QB24 and QB18 in points per game over the past two seasons while attached to better receiving units in Seattle than his current setup in Las Vegas.
Smith is a floor-based QB2 in Week 1.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Eagles -- FREE | NFL Kickoff Game |
| Chiefs vs. Chargers -- FREE | Friday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bills -- FREE | Sunday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears -- FREE | Monday Night Football |