Bears vs. Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Bears and Rams.

Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

Both the Rams and Bears are here due to closing out games with a late touchdown and then hanging on for the win.

The Rams defeated the Panthers 34-31, going ahead with 0:38 seconds remaining in the game on a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson.

Five of the past seven Rams games have been one-score contests, with the two exceptions being matchups against the Cardinals.

The Bears had another thrilling comeback in the Wild Card Round.

They trailed 21-3 at the half and 21-6 going into the fourth quarter.

They had a furious final quarter and won the game 31-27 over Green Bay, going ahead with 1:43 left on a 25-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore.

That has been the identity of this Chicago team this season.

The Bears now have a league-high seven wins when trailing in the fourth quarter.

If the Bears could build the entire plane out of the fourth quarter, they would be the best team in the league.

Chicago is averaging a league-high 3.46 points per drive in the fourth quarter of games this season compared to 1.96 points per drive over the opening three quarters, which is 19th in the league.

This game features two offenses that gain yards in chunks.

Chicago (14.4) and Los Angeles (14.0) are first and second in plays per game that gain 10 or more yards.

The Rams are second in plays per game that 20 or more yards (4.8), and the Bears are fourth (4.4).

These are also the two best teams in the league at avoiding negative plays.

The Bears (2.1) and the Rams (2.1) are the top two teams in plays per game that result in a sack or turnover.

That could lead to a potential high-scoring affair with the current state of these defenses.

The Bears have struggled defensively all season due to injuries, personnel rotation, and a lack of pass rush.

Chicago is 30th in the league in defensive success rate (54.3%), the worst among the remaining playoff teams.

The Bears are reliant on turnovers.

They lead the NFL in takeaway rate per drive (17.2%), but when they do not force a turnover, they are allowing 2.69 points per drive (27th).

Even with turnovers factored in, Chicago is allowing 34.2 yards per possession, which is 27th in the league and the most of any playoff team left playing.

The Rams have progressively tapered off on defense.

Over their past seven games, the Rams have allowed 2.35 points per drive (23rd), a touchdown on 28% of opponent possessions (25th), and 5.9 yards per play (30th).

Before that, the Rams had allowed 1.52 points per drive (3rd), a touchdown on 14.9% of opponent drives (2nd), and 4.8 yards per play (6th).

If this game is tight, the Rams still had an issue last week on special teams, allowing a blocked punt that nearly swung the game.

The Rams are 31st in the EPA on special teams this season (-48.8) while Chicago is 10th (17.4).

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Stafford threw for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Wild Card Round in Carolina.

Stafford has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in 12 consecutive games, extending the longest streak of his career.

Only five quarterbacks have had a 13-game streak with multiple touchdowns through the air, while the record is 14 games.

Stafford did leave some meat on the bone last week despite the counting stats.

18.6% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse, which was 10th among playoff quarterbacks last week.

He completed 57.1% of his passes, his second-lowest rate of the season.

Stafford has now completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of his past four games after doing that only twice before Week 15.

Last week, we highlighted how Stafford and this passing game have been given trouble at times by defenses that can create pressure, disguise their coverages post-snap, are led by coaches who were previously with the Rams, and have generally been good at defending passes under center and play action.

The Bears are none of those things.

Chicago just allowed 323 yards and 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love on Saturday night.

The Bears are 28th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.480) for fantasy purposes, allowing a 65.5% completion rate (22nd), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (26th), 11.6 yards per completion (27th), and a 6.2% touchdown rate (30th).

One thing we also mentioned going into last week was that we were expecting the Rams to dial back their under-center and play-action rates.

Stafford was under center for 45.8% of his dropbacks, his third-lowest rate of the season.

The Rams used play-action on 16.7% of dropbacks, well below their season rate of 35.4% and the second lowest of the year.

I would anticipate those to flip here.

Against play action passing, the Bears have allowed a 67.9% completion rate (22nd), 9.0 yards per pass attempt (29th), and a 6.4% touchdown rate (23rd).

The Rams did raise their 11 personnel rate last week, as expected (59.7%), while decreasing play-action passing.

They used their heavy 13-personnel sets at a 31.9% rate.

The difference last week was that they did not pass a lot out of 13 (14% of their passing plays) and used it primarily to run (58.6% of their rushing plays).

We have a tiny sample of Chicago facing 13 personnel this season (27 snaps), but on those snaps, they have played nickel at the second-highest rate in the league (33.3%) behind only Seattle.

I do believe the Rams' heavy sets put Chicago in a bind.

They do not have a hybrid-type player like Seattle's Nick Emmanwori.

They also just lost T.J. Edwards last week, their best two-way defender in the run and pass game.

If Chicago matches the Rams' 13 with base defense, they'll see a lot of play-action passing.

If they combat those 13 sets with nickel, the Rams will run.

Stafford has had a lot of success against Dennis Allen.

In six career games against his defenses, Stafford has thrown 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, completing 63.9% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt.

He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all six games.

In his two games against Allen-led defenses with Sean McVay, Stafford has thrown for 8.8 yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt.

One thing circling this game is that the expected forecast is expected to be frigid in Chicago for a night game in January (who knew?).

Stafford passed for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns in a snowstorm in last year’s playoff loss to a much more formidable defense in Philadelphia.

He has not played a game below 20 degrees since 2017 in Green Bay, but he had 323 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game.

Caleb Williams: In his first playoff game, Williams connected on 24 of 48 (50%) passes for 361 yards, throwing 2 touchdowns (and a two-point conversion) with 2 interceptions.

He rushed four times for 20 yards.

Williams has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games.

If Williams could get started earlier, the Bears may not need such wild comebacks.

Through three quarters on Saturday, Williams was the lowest-rated passer in the playoffs (41.7), completing 14 of 27 passes for 177 yards (6.6 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Then in the fourth quarter, Williams was 10 of 21 for 184 yards with 2 touchdowns.

This season, Williams is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt (9th) with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in the fourth quarter.

He is eighth in the fourth quarter rating (96.2) and 14th in success rate (42.3%).

In the opening three quarters, Williams is 29th in rating (84.8) and 25th in yards per pass attempt (6.7) with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

Williams has a high off-target rate and a low completion rate, no matter the setting, but that is partially due to his ability to extend plays and hunt for big plays.

We have already seen Williams make massive strides in sack avoidance through mobility.

What he is doing under these pressures is bypassing checkdowns that could inflate his completion percentage to attempt out-of-structure shot plays with lower chances of success but a larger payoff.

When Williams has been pressured, only 40.2% of his dropbacks remain in the pocket, the lowest rate in the NFL.

On those passes outside of the pocket when pressured, Williams is averaging 13.0 air yards per attempt (4th).

He may leave free squares on the board, which is frustrating and puts the offense behind the sticks, but he can also create out-of-structure plays.

If Williams ever trusts his eyes as much as his arm, the upside is tremendous.

As noted in the open, the Rams have been a softer pass defense to close the season.

Over their past seven games, the Rams have allowed a 62.3% completion rate (17th), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (23rd), 12.1 yards per completion (27th), and a 6.1% touchdown rate (28th).

They have also allowed a handful of rushing yards over that span to Bryce Young (23 and 24 yards with a touchdown) and Jacoby Brissett (22 and 19 yards).

Despite the drop in production from this defense, the Rams are No. 1 in the NFL in pressure rate over that span (46.7%).

That ties into the volatility highlighted with Williams earlier.

When pressured, Williams is extending plays, but he also drops to a 39.4% completion rate (last in the league) and 5.5 yards per pass attempt (23rd) compared to a 65.4% completion rate and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (13th) without pressure.

Running Back

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