The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Browns and Ravens.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8.0 | Spread | 8.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 16.25 | ||
| 25.4 | 10 | Points/Gm | 16.2 | 29 |
| 26.1 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 17 |
| 56.2 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 4 |
| 65.3 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.3 | 4 |
| 5.7 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.1 | 32 |
| 5.7 | 25 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 5 |
| 48.22% | 4 | Rush% | 38.14% | 30 |
| 51.78% | 29 | Pass% | 61.86% | 3 |
| 40.82% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 48.32% | 28 |
| 59.18% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 51.68% | 5 |
- The Ravens are 9th in defensive EPA (22.3) over the past five weeks after ranking 31st over the opening five weeks of the season (-57.3).
- The Ravens have allowed a touchdown on a league-low 12.2% of opponent drives over their past four games after allowing a league-high 38.2% touchdown rate per drive prior.
- The Browns are 31st in offensive EPA (-92.4), ahead of only the Titans (-99.7).
- The Browns are last in the NFL in offensive success rate (34.7%).
- Cleveland averages 1.8 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Browns have allowed 4.1 yards per play at home, third in the league.
Get access to Rich's fantasy content as well as Warren Sharp’s betting recommendations for FREE
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Jackson was held in check in Minnesota on Sunday.
He had season lows in completion rate (58.6%) and yards per attempt (6.1 Y/A), throwing for 176 yards and a touchdown.
He added 36 rushing yards but ultimately closed the day as the QB14 (16.6 points).
We did see Minnesota play Cover 0 on 17.9% of his dropbacks, which was a season high.
That was something we were looking for entering that matchup last week.
On those plays, Jackson was 2 of 5 for 21 yards.
Jackson now has 71 dropbacks against Cover-0 under Todd Monken, completing 54.3% of his passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt on those plays.
He will see some more of that here.
The Browns used that on 17.6% of his dropbacks in Week 2, which was his previous high this season before Sunday.
We are talking small samples in-game, but we have repeatedly highlighted that the lesser of evils when handling Jackson has been an aggressive man-blitz approach.
You are still likely going to give up big plays, and Jackson will get his regardless, but it has been better than letting Baltimore slice up your defense playing passively.
Against man blitzes under Monken, Jackson averages 7.8 Y/A, completing 60.9% of his passes.
Against zone blitzes, he has completed 73.8% of his passes for 10.5 Y/A.
Against zone without a blitz, he averages 8.4 Y/A with a 71.6% completion rate.
Jim Schwartz has played that game of risk versus reward.
Four of the highest man coverage rates Jackson has faced under Monken have come against the Browns.
Against the Cleveland man blitzes, Jackson has only completed 57.6% for 7.2 Y/A, but he also has a 9.1% touchdown rate.
Jackson got off to a slow start in his Week 2 matchup with Cleveland, throwing for only 77 yards with 4.5 yards per pass attempt in the first half.
The Browns could hold this offense off only for so long, however.
Jackson went 9 of 12 for 148 yards (12.3 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns after the half that week.
The Ravens averaged 4.6 yards per play that game, their lowest rate in a game with Jackson this season.
He only ran twice for 13 yards, but Jackson found his way to another top-three scoring week (26.3 points).
For all Schwartz and this defense have tried, Jackson has averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game against them.
Cleveland does just enough good things defensively to keep gamers on their toes, but their aggressive nature can end up hurting them on big plays.
When they do not pressure, they are allowing a 9% touchdown rate, 30th in the league.
Jackson and Drake Maye are the only quarterbacks who have finished higher than QB15 against them this season.
Jackson will likely have volatility down-to-down here to the nature of the Cleveland defense and their approach with him, and ultimately still end up as a potent fantasy scorer.
Dillon Gabriel: It was an ugly performance on Sunday against the Jets, but Gabriel did find his way to a QB8 (20.1 points) finish for fantasy purposes.
He only completed 53.1% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt and 167 yards.
His 21.9% inaccurate throw rate was 24th out of 26 passers last week.
But Gabriel threw a pair of touchdowns and ran for a season-high 54 yards to stack fantasy production.
That was Gabriel’s first scoring week this season higher than the QB18.
Cleveland has had some rough quarterback play come through, and Gabriel appears to be another addition to that list.
He has completed 58.6% of his passes, ahead of only Cam Ward (57.6%).
He is last in yards per pass attempt (5.0) and yards per completion (8.5).
24.7% of his passes have resulted in a first down or touchdown, also last in the league.
Arm strength is Gabriel’s most significant issue over his early-career sample.
On throws of 10 or more yards downfield, Gabriel has completed a league-low 36.2% (17 of 47).
On throws of 20 or more yards downfield, he has completed 20% (2 of 10).
If last week’s rushing is static moving forward, that gives him more appeal as a QB2, but we will not chase last week’s fantasy points here aggressively.
Baltimore has gotten on track defensively.
Over their past four games, they have allowed a 59.6% completion rate (6th), 6.7 Y/A (11th), and a league-low 1.4% touchdown rate.
That includes holding a red-hot Matthew Stafford to 181 yards and 1 touchdown over that span.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
you're in luck! It's FREE THIS WEEK! That's right, NFL Week 11 is our free week. Get this article and EVERY NFL pick, prop, and fantasy prediction for free. This week only!
Learn MoreMore Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots | Thursday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Eagles | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Raiders | Monday Night Football |