There were already rumors Derek Carr would miss the entire 2025 season, but he took things a step further on Saturday morning, announcing his retirement.
Carr's retirement is a reminder of how quickly things can move in the NFL.
After Week 2 of last season, the New Orleans offense was flying, and the Saints appeared on their way to a great season.
Less than 10 months later, Carr is out of the league.
Carr prompted mixed opinions during his entire NFL career, but his retirement will affect the fantasy outlook for Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and the rest of the 2025 Saints.
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New Orleans Saints 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
As mentioned in the intro, Carr had his fair share of detractors during his NFL career.
Unquestionably, though, the Saints offense was much better with Carr at quarterback last season.
Carr started 10 games in 2024, from Week 1 through Week 5 and then again from Week 9 through Week 14.
The Saints ranked eighth in points per drive over those 10 games (11 weeks) and 11th in yards per play.
Things were not as great over the second set of games with a large chunk of the offense out injured, but the Saints were still seventh in yards per play over that second set of five games.
In the other seven games, the Saints were 31st in points per drive and 29th in yards per play.
The ranking difference tells the story, but the actual numbers show how stark the dropoff was.
2025 Saints Offense With Carr:
- 2.36 points per drive
- 5.7 yards per play
2025 Saints Offense Without Carr:
- 1.09 points per drive
- 4.6 yards per play
Unsurprisingly, New Orleans pass catchers felt the squeeze when Carr was out of the game.
With Carr, those players averaged 1.6 yards per route run with an off target throw on 10.2% of their targets.
Without Carr, they averaged 1.1 yards per route run with an off target throw on 13.1% of their targets.
It was not all bad for Alvin Kamara, who did see a bump in targets with Carr off the field.
Kamara was targeted on 26.8% of his routes with Carr on the field, but that number jumped to 33.7% with Carr off the field.
He averaged fewer yards per catch, but betting the over on his catch total was profitable in those games without Carr.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed obviously missed a lot of time, which skews those receiver numbers without Carr.
Olave only ran 57 routes with Carr off the field, and Shaheed ran just 49 routes.
Still, both the numbers and eye test say neither Jake Haener nor Spencer Rattler was up to the task in 2024.
So, if trying to figure out how to value Olave and Shaheed in 2025, it is important to understand what to expect from second-round rookie Tyler Shough.
The Saints have said they will have a competition for the starting quarterback spot, but it would be a big shock if Shough does not get the first crack at the job.
Shough is an older prospect — he will turn 26 in September — but unlike other older prospects who have entered the league in recent seasons, he does not have a ton of college experience.
He attempted just 951 pass attempts in college, which was second to last in the draft class, and 389 of those came last season.
Shough also does not have great metrics overall on that limited sample.
Shough’s 70% on-target rate was the second lowest in this class against Power Conference opponents.
When blitzed, he completed 58.4% of his passes, also second worst.
He was better from a clean pocket, was sacked on a class-low 3.3% of his dropbacks, and only had a 1.8% turnover-worthy rate on his throws (fourth) last season.
Will he have a clean pocket in New Orleans?
The Saints did draft Kelvin Banks Jr. in the first round, and they should hope for a lot more injury luck up front than they had in 2024.
Still, they were 29th in ESPN's pass block win rate last season, so they have a long way to go to even be an above average pass blocking unit.
Carr was not a great NFL quarterback.
It would be tough to find anyone who argues he was.
But Carr was a much better option than anyone else the Saints put on the field last season, and it is fair to worry about what Shough can do as a rookie given his lack of college experience despite being an older prospect.
The good news is we already expected Carr to miss the 2025 season, so his absence is priced into the draft cost of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed.
Kamara checks in as the RB21 with Olave getting a WR34 draft cost and Shaheed checking in at WR55.
Shough averaged 9.2 air yards per attempt when he was not pressured last year, so perhaps he will get Shaheed looks down the field.
Still, these prices reflect the risk-reward proposition at play for the New Orleans offense in the 2025 fantasy football season.