The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Lions and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 18.0 | 28 | Points/Gm | 28.3 | 4 |
| 22.5 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 24.3 | 22 |
| 63.2 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 14 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 17 |
| 5 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 2 |
| 4.8 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 40.5% | 28 | Rush% | 41.6% | 22 |
| 59.5% | 5 | Pass% | 58.4% | 11 |
| 49.1% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 42.5% | 11 |
| 50.9% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 57.5% | 22 |
- Detroit has covered a league-best 65.5% of its regular-season games under Dan Campbell, including a league-best 65.9% rate at home over that span.
- New Orleans converted a league-low 44.4% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns last year. The league average was 57.3%.
- The Saints needed 190.4 yards of offense per touchdown in 2025, the highest rate in the league.
- New Orleans produced a league-low 38 plays of 20-plus yards on offense last season.
- Detroit produced 80 plays of 20-plus yards, third in the league.
- The Lions allowed 68 plays of 20-plus yards to opponents last season, 26th in the league.
- The Saints led at some point in just 8 games in 2025, the fewest in the league.
- The Saints trailed for a league-high 76.8% of their offensive plays in 2025.
- The Lions had a 46.4% success rate on pass plays last season (8th) compared to a 37.6% success rate on rushing plays (28th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Saints vs. Lions Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Jared Goff (TRUST)
Goff completed 68% of his passes (5th) last season, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt (6th) with a 5.9% touchdown rate (6th) and a 1.4% interception rate (7th).
For fantasy purposes, Goff was the QB12 in points per game (17.5).
Goff took advantage of his defense and running game falling apart to close last season, as well as a play-calling change to Dan Campbell.
He ended the fantasy season on a sour note as QB32 against the Vikings, but from Week 10 to Week 16, Goff was the QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.7), throwing 15 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over that span.
Even without those splits, Goff has been a rock-steady fantasy producer since joining the Lions.
He has thrown at least 29 touchdown passes in each of the past four seasons and is the only quarterback to have 30 or more touchdown passes in each of the past three seasons.
Including the postseason, Goff has led the NFL in passing touchdowns (135) since 2022.
Goff's surrounding talent pool (and coaching scheme) has lifted him, helping him generate passing scores.
57% of all passing scores are throws that actually go into the end zone.
Over the past four years, 57% of Goff's passing touchdowns have been on throws that were NOT thrown into the end zone.
Since joining the Lions, Goff has averaged 19.4 points per game indoors, which is QB10 over that span.
We have a home setup against a potentially frisky New Orleans offense while the Detroit defense enters the season missing key pieces in the secondary.
The Saints have their own question marks on defense.
Alontae Taylor and Demario Davis left during free agency.
Kool-Aid McKinstry is on a strong trajectory, but Quincy Riley and Jonas Sanker are unproven alongside him.
With Taylor leaving, Sanker will be moving from free safety to slot corner.
The New Orleans defense struggled to rush the passer (29th in pressure rate) and ranked 19th in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.445).
You need to disrupt Goff.
From a clean pocket last season, Goff was second in the NFL in rating (121.7), completing 75.9% of his passes (5th) for 8.3 yards per attempt (8th) and an 8.1% touchdown rate (3rd).
Tyler Shough
All the changes New Orleans made this offseason set them up to get a good look at Shough as the potential quarterback of the future.
Taking over as the starter in Week 9, Shough completed 68% of his passes through the remainder of the season, which was sixth in the league over that stretch.
During that period, he averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (16th), a 3.1% touchdown rate (32nd), a 1.8% interception rate (11th), and an 8.7% sack rate (27th).
For fantasy, Shough ranked 16th in points per game (16.6) after taking over.
He finished in the top half of the weekly position scoring in seven of his final eight games, with three top-10 weeks over that span.
As a surprise for gamers, Shough rushed for 186 yards (16.9 yards per game) and 3 touchdowns.
He did need assistance from Kellen Moore.
On 221 dropbacks with pre-snap motion, Shough completed 71.4% of his passes (3rd) for 8.1 yards per pass attempt (5th).
On 154 dropbacks without pre-snap motion, Shough completed 61.8% of his throws (20th) for 6.1 Y/A (29th).
The Saints' wins were against Carolina (twice), Tampa Bay, the Jets, and Tennessee, so there is plenty to still look for in terms of punching up in competition.
The Saints had a light schedule to close out the year, but to be fair to Shough, he was working with a skeleton crew aside from Chris Olave.
Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Devin Neal all picked up injuries that cost them games.
In the final game of last season, the Saints handed the ball off to Audric Estime 21 times.
To resolve matters, the team added Travis Etienne to the backfield.
The Saints were ravaged up front.
Their most-used offensive line combination was on the field for only 16.9% of their plays in 2025.
Only the Chargers had a lower rate (16.5%).
If the line has more fortune staying together, this is a solid unit.
David Edwards was added.
Kelvin Banks and Taliese Fuaga are both young assets on rookie contracts.
Cesar Ruiz and Erik McCoy are good players when they are on the field and are healthy right now.
That matters because Detroit ranked fourth in pressure rate (37.7%) last season.
When Shough was pressured as a rookie, he took a sack on a league-high 28.4% of his pressures.
The Saints will be missing first-round pick Jordyn Tyson, but they will have Devaughn Vele back, who missed the final few games of 2025.
All of those additions are reasons to keep the lights on for Shough building on the end of his rookie season when the supporting cast was limited.
Shough led the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate (41.2%) and was third in completion percentage (71.4%).
Shough was also the QB7 in red-zone rushing points during his weeks as the starter.
Overall, the problem was that the Saints did not have enough red-zone opportunities.
In his weeks as the starter, Shough only had 23 total dropbacks in the red zone, which ranked 28th in the league.
If the Saints can get to that area more often and Shough remains as efficient in the red zone as he was as a rookie, then lift off.
Even if he comes closer to the pack in terms of efficiency due to sample size, there is an added upside to having more opportunities in that area of the field, which smooths out any decline.
The Saints kick things off in a point-chasing environment in Detroit.
Shough is an upside option on the QB1/QB2 line and a DFS tournament option.
There is still some floor potential, but there are a lot of moving parts on the Detroit defense.
The Lions will enter the season without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
Terrion Arnold was also released.
To be fair to the Lions, we already had a good look at them without all of these guys last season.
Detroit faced 215 dropbacks last year with all three of those guys off the field, allowing a 60.2% completion rate (5th), 6.4 Y/A (5th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (7th) on those dropbacks.
Detroit has a lot of defensive turnover outside of these guys, though.
On top of those players, the Lions also lost Amik Robertson (842 snaps), Alex Anzalone (1,003 snaps), DJ Reader (583 snaps), Roy Lopez (425 snaps), and Al-Quadin Muhammad (457 snaps).
The free agents brought in – Devin White, Chuck Clark, and Christian Izien – are not overly exciting, though they did use a Round 2 pick on edge Derrick Moore.
Saints vs. Lions Fantasy Running Back Preview
To continue reading this article
select one of the packages below
All-Access: Unlocks all fantasy content & Warren Sharp's betting recommendations for 2026.
– 2025 Record: 500-374 (57%) +70.77 Units –
– 2025 Best Bet Record: 17-3 (85%) –
– Computer Totals Record Last 5 Years: 144-65 (69%) –
Fantasy Packages: Unlocks all of Rich Hribar's industry-leading fantasy content for 2026.
LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Wednesday Night Football |
| 49ers vs. Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Monday Night Football |