The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Bears and Steelers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 24.6 | 12 | Points/Gm | 25.8 | 8 |
| 23.2 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 26.4 | 26 |
| 55.5 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 3 |
| 68.5 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.7 | 8 |
| 5.2 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 8 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 30 |
| 41.26% | 21 | Rush% | 46.53% | 8 |
| 58.74% | 12 | Pass% | 53.47% | 25 |
| 37.23% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 43.78% | 20 |
| 62.77% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 56.22% | 13 |
- The Bears are 5-3 when trailing in the second half, 2nd in the league behind Denver (6-1).
- Chicago leads the league in turnover differential (+16).
- Pittsburgh is fourth (+8).
- The Steelers have scored a league-high 77 points off turnovers.
- Pittsburgh averages 5.1 sacks plus takeaways per game, 2nd in the league.
- Chicago is allowing a league-low 2.2 sacks plus turnovers per game.
- 43% of Pittsburgh's drives fail to achieve a first down, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears have a 40.3% success rate on passing plays (28th) compared to 47.4% on rushing plays (3rd).
- 69.3% of Pittsburgh's yardage this season has come via passing, 4th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Williams was 16 of 32 (50%) for 193 yards (6.0 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in Week 11, adding 26 yards rushing to his output.
We have done a good job diagnosing when to chase Williams for fantasy this season.
His QB1 scoring weeks have come against the Cowboys, Bengals, Giants, Commanders, and Vikings.
The last one was aided by 58 yards and a touchdown rushing.
This is a spot where I prefer to use him as a QB2 rather than outright chasing a ceiling.
Williams does have his mobility as an out for fantasy purposes, but we are always cautious with him against teams that can rush the passer.
Williams has completed 38.5% of his passes under pressure (32nd) for 4.9 yards per pass attempt (30th) and a 2.1% touchdown rate (22nd).
To his credit, Williams has been excellent this year in avoiding sacks.
He has been sacked on 14.3% of his pressures this season (8th best) compared to a 31.6% rate as a rookie (35th).
From a clean pocket, Williams averages 8.1 Y/A (8th).
Pittsburgh is middle of the pack with a 36.4% pressure rate (16th).
When they do get pressure, Pittsburgh allows a 46.7% completion rate (10th), 5.8 Y/A (14th), and a league-low 0.8% touchdown rate.
Pittsburgh has done a good job of mixing things up as of late.
Just a few weeks ago, they took heat for their approach against the Bengals and Packers.
Since then, they have altered their game plans weekly, allowing Daniel Jones 6.8 Y/A, Justin Herbert 6.7 Y/A, and Joe Flacco 5.0 Y/A.
All of those passers were in the back half of weekly scoring.
In the rematch against the Bengals, the Steelers played at a season-high two-high rate (73.2%).
After playing a 38.9% rate of man coverage against the Bengals in the first matchup, they played a season-low 15.9% rate on Sunday.
They blitzed a season-low 12.2% of the time.
Their previous low in blitz rate was 23.6%.
Against the Chargers, they played a season-high rate of man coverage (49.3%) and blitzed 37.5% of the time.
Against the Colts, they played a season-high rate of Cover 6 (14.5%).
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers left last week’s game with a fracture in his left wrist.
He will not have surgery and is pushing to play this weekend.
Knowing Rodgers, he usually gets what he wants, so we will open the week expecting him to play.
Should he not be cleared, and Mason Rudolph starts, come back here.
Expecting Rodgers to try to play with the injury, he is a matchup-based QB2.
Rodgers has not shown much of a ceiling this year.
He has only two QB1 weeks, and those are his only weeks higher than QB15 in weekly scoring.
He can protect himself the same way he has this season, which is with quick and short passing.
Rodgers has thrown 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate in the league.
A league-low 45.3% of his passes have been five or more yards downfield. The league rate is 55.1%.
Only 23.9% of his passes have been 10 or more yards downfield, also the lowest rate. The league average is 32.7%.
You can make the case for chasing the matchup in 2QB formats, looking for floor, but you want to attack the Bears downfield.
Chicago has allowed a 56.9% completion rate (30th), a league-high 13.0 yards per pass attempt, and a 9.2% touchdown rate (29th) on throws 10 or more yards downfield.
On throws shorter than that, they are 19th in completion rate (73.5%), eighth in Y/A (5.0), but also 26th in touchdown rate (5.5%).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |