The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Ravens and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 16.0 | 29 | Points/Gm | 32.8 | 3 |
| 12.8 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 33.3 | 32 |
| 56.8 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 52.5 | 31 |
| 60.3 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 71.5 | 32 |
| 5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.4 | 2 |
| 4.7 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 25 |
| 44.05% | 12 | Rush% | 40.95% | 22 |
| 55.95% | 21 | Pass% | 59.05% | 11 |
| 40.25% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 43.01% | 16 |
| 59.75% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 56.99% | 17 |
- Baltimore has a 4-10 record without Lamar Jackson as a starter since 2019.
- With Jackson off the field over that span, the Ravens have averaged 4.9 yards per play (28th) compared to 6.1 yards per play with Jackson on the field (2nd).
- Baltimore is 31st in total defensive EPA (-40.9).
- Houston has a 36.1% success rate on offense, 31st in the league.
- Houston games have averaged 28.8 combined points per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Texans have allowed a league-low 1.21 points per drive.
- The Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game on defense (70.4).
- The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game on defense (120.1).
- 23.8% of the drives against Houston have reached the red zone or scored prior, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- 46.7% of the drives against Baltimore have reached the red zone or scored prior, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Stroud took advantage of his best matchup of the year, and this offense showed its first signs of life.
Stroud set season highs in completion rate (78.6%) and passing yards (233), ending the week as QB14 (18.4 points).
Houston finally incorporated some creativity into the offense, utilizing a season-high 50% rate of pre-snap motion and a 21.4% play-action rate.
Those rates ranked 19th and 18th in Week 4, but they were baby steps forward for an offense that had done little entering last week.
This unit took advantage of a downtrodden defense.
They will draw another one this weekend.
Baltimore has been off to a rough start this year.
Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the remainder of the season.
Roquan Smith is set to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury.
Marlon Humphrey is dealing with a calf injury and is not expected to play.
Nate Wiggins left Week 4 with an elbow injury.
We have not seen Kyle Van Noy in the past two weeks.
Jaire Alexander has not played since Week 1.
As a result of all these mounting injuries, the Ravens have allowed a touchdown on 42.9% of their opponents' drives over the past two weeks, tied for the highest rate in the league.
Baltimore has only a 30% pressure rate (28th) and a 1.5% sack rate (30th) over the past two weeks.
Opposing passers are averaging 19.3 passing points per game against Baltimore, the second-most in the league.
I prefer to use Stroud as a matchup-based QB2 since he was still unable to crack the QB1 scoring tier last week, but if you were in a bind and needed a one-week fill-in, he is on the table.
Cooper Rush: Rush will be making his first start with the Ravens as Lamar Jackson is expected to miss some time with a hamstring injury.
Baltimore has a Week 7 bye, so this could be a two-week gig for Rush.
Rush surprisingly has a 9-5 record as a starter, going 4-4 last year with Dallas.
Despite the winning record as a starter, we are in the business of scoring fantasy points and stacking production.
After Rush took over for Dak Prescott last season, Dallas averaged 4.9 yards per play on offense (28th), scored 1.55 points per drive (28th), and scored a touchdown on a league-worst 13.7% of their possessions.
Rush averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game as a starter with two QB1 scoring weeks over his eight starts.
One of those was against Houston, when he was the QB18 (16.4 points) on 55 pass attempts.
This Baltimore offense has better pieces in bulk than last year’s Dallas team, but Rush is expected to be without Ronnie Stanley on Sunday against a formidable pass rush.
Houston is fourth in the league in pressure rate (44.3%).
When they have gotten pressure, passers have completed a league-low 34.7% of their passes for 5.1 yards per pass attempt (8th) and a 0% touchdown rate.
Houston is allowing 9.9 passing points per game, third in the league.
Rush is a pickup in 2QB formats, but these next two weeks (Rams next week) are no layups for a safe floor even in those leagues.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| 49ers @ Rams | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Browns | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bengals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Jaguars | Monday Night Football |