The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Vikings vs. Packers Week 10 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 22.75 | ||
| 18.3 | 27 | Points/Gm | 24.0 | 12 |
| 14.5 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 21.2 | 11 |
| 57.4 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 15 |
| 60.9 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.1 | 30 |
| 4.6 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 10 |
| 4.6 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 5 |
| 46.0% | 9 | Rush% | 36.1% | 31 |
| 54.0% | 24 | Pass% | 63.9% | 2 |
| 46.0% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 41.0% | 11 |
| 54.0% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 59.0% | 22 |
- Games involving the Vikings are averaging a combined 32.8 points per game, the fewest in the league.
- Minnesota games are 7-1 towards the under this year, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota has scored a touchdown on 12.5% of their possessions, ahead of only the Chargers (11.6%).
- The Vikings are the only team in the league without an offensive touchdown in the first quarter.
- Opponents have scored on 27.6% of drives against Minnesota, the lowest rate in the league.
- Opponents have scored on 30.8% of drives against Green Bay, 4th.
- The Packers lead the league in pass plays of 20-plus yards (40), 30-plus yards (20), and 40-plus yards (12).
- The Vikings have allowed 16 pass plays of 20-plus yards, 4th in the league.
- The Packers have scored a league-high 74 points off takeaways.
- The Packers have a 32.2% success rate on rushing plays, 30th in the league.
- The Vikings have a 31.8% success rate on rushing plays, 31st.
Trust = spike production for that player
Vikings vs. Packers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Jordan Love
Love was on fire on Sunday, completing 23 of 29 passes (79.3%) for 372 yards (12.8 Y/A) and 3 touchdowns in New England.
He added a 13-yard touchdown run, leading all quarterbacks in scoring (36.2 points) in Week 9.
Love completed 6 passes of 20-plus air yards on Sunday for 235 yards.
That was the second time this season he had 6 completions of 20-plus air yards in a game.
The rest of the league has two such games.
Love has a league-high 826 passing yards on 20-plus-yard throws this season.
He had 3 completions of 30-plus air yards, the second time he has done that this season.
The rest of the league has two such games.
He has a league-high 11 completions on throws of 30-plus air yards.
Love has averaged 24.0 points per game over the past five weeks, scoring 20-plus points in four of those games.
He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game but one this season.
That includes Week 1 against Minnesota.
In the opener, Love connected on just 50% of his passes (the lowest rate among all qualifying passers in Week 1), with a league-high 23.8% inaccurate-target rate.
But when he did complete passes, they were chunk gains.
Love threw for 387 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Despite the off-target rates, he averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt (7th) and 18.4 yards per completion (2nd).
It was the only multi-touchdown passing game Minnesota has allowed.
The most passing yards the Vikings have allowed outside of that game was 234.
Love only completed 2 passes in that game of 20-plus air yards, but on throws 10 or more yards downfield, he was 11 of 19 (57.9%) for 322 yards and a touchdown.
Since then, passers against Minnesota have completed a league-low 36.8% (21 of 57) of those throws for 425 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 7 interceptions.
Since then, the Vikings have held Jared Goff (9 points) and Josh Allen (12.9 points) to QB2 weeks.
We know Love will inevitably have another QB2 week, but this is a tough streaming week, and the Packers are just letting things rip.
Love is on some teams with other viable passers (I have him on a Brock Purdy team) you can lean on over him in this spot, but I would not stream for Love here, fully accepting the floor potential.
Love was blitzed on a league-high 73.9% of his dropbacks and was pressured on a league-high 54.3% of his dropbacks in that Week 1 game.
When pressured, Love was 8 of 21 (38.1%) for 166 yards (7.9 Y/A) with an interception and 4 sacks.
When kept clean, he was 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 221 yards (10.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
Green Bay led 22-10 into the third quarter before an epic collapse led to a 39-22 loss.
While we are giving respect to the matchup here and not expecting Love to run back the QB1 overall score from a week ago, I do believe the Packers think they can play their game against Minnesota.
It opens them up to high variance and volatility if the shot plays aren't connecting, but I don't buy that the Packers can do what the past three teams have done to Minnesota and attempt to grind them out on the ground for four quarters.
The Packers have thrown the ball 6.0% over pass rate expectations, second in the league.
In that Week 1 game, Green Bay was 1.9% over pass rate expectations.
Opponents have gone extremely run-heavy against Minnesota, throwing the ball 6.1% below expectations, the lowest rate in the league.
For that reason, keep sticking with Love as an upside QB1.
Kirk Cousins
After back-to-back losses and another anemic offensive performance on Monday night, the Vikings pushed a deal at the deadline to bring Cousins back to Minnesota.
Cousins was with Kevin O'Connell in 2022 and 2023.
In 2022, the Vikings were 13-4.
Cousins threw for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns, completing 65.9% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
He had a 4.5% touchdown rate and a 2.2% interception rate.
Eight games into the 2023 season, Cousins suffered his Achilles injury (ironically, in Green Bay).
At that point, Cousins was playing even better, completing 69.5% of his passes for 7.5 Y/A with a 5.8% touchdown rate and a 1.6% interception rate.
Cousins should be able to pick up the offense quickly and play on Sunday.
With the Raiders, Cousins was completing 64.1% of his passes (16th) for 7.4 Y/A (12th), 11.6 yards per completion (10th), a 6.3% touchdown rate (5th), and a 2.5% interception rate (20th).
He has been driven by the play-action pass.
With play action, Cousins completed 72.4% of his passes (2nd) for 8.5 Y/A (11th), and a 10.3% touchdown rate (2nd), throwing 9 touchdowns to 1 interception.
On non-play-action passes, Cousins completed 61% of his passes (23rd) for 7.0 Y/A (14th) with a 4.8% touchdown rate (14th) and a 3.1% interception rate, throwing 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
While Cousins should adapt quickly to the offense, this is a tough assignment, making him a QB2.
There is still upside here, but the Packers play a style of defense that counters what Cousins wants to do.
The Packers have allowed a 63.3% completion rate against play action (12th), 7.4 Y/A (14th), and a 3.3% touchdown rate (6th).
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Packers have allowed a 44.1% completion rate (4th), 9.6 Y/A (7th), a 4.3% touchdown rate (4th), and a 10.8% interception rate (2nd).
That said, the Packers allowed Carson Wentz to throw 3 touchdowns in Week 1.
Two of those came on drives that started in Green Bay territory.
Vikings vs. Packers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 10 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Giants | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Lions | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |