| Minnesota | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 20.75 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 25.4 | 8 | Points/Gm | 28.6 | 4 |
| 18.9 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 13 |
| 60.6 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 21 |
| 65.8 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 12 |
| 48.8% | 3 | Rush% | 46.4% | 19 |
| 51.2% | 30 | Pass% | 53.6% | 14 |
| 38.4% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 34.5% | 2 |
| 61.6% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 65.5% | 31 |
Overview
The Vikings enter Sunday losing three of their five games since their Week 12 bye. Even if we throw out Week 17, Minnesota has sported a 1-4 record this season against playoff teams.
The Saints, on the other hand, come into Sunday winning six of their past seven games, with three consecutive double-digit point wins and a 3-1 record against 2019 playoff teams.
On offense, both of these teams have been efficient this season. Both teams are top-10 in the league in points per game, scoring rate per drive, and yards per play on the season, but their offenses have been trending in opposite directions.
Since Drew Brees returned in Week 8, New Orleans is second in the league in points per game (32.7) and fifth in yards per play (6.1). Over that span, the Saints rank second in the league in point differential (plus-100).
Over that same period, Minnesota has taken a step back from the high-end offensive efficiency they were churning out to start the year. During the same timeframe, Minnesota is 15th in yards per play (5.4) and 11th in scoring per game (23.9) after ranking third in the league in yards per play (6.4) and fourth in points per game (27.4) through the opening seven weeks.
Perhaps the biggest thing the Saints have going for them is they turned the ball over on just 7-of-167 (4.2%) of their offensive possessions this season, the lowest rate in the league. The next closest team was the Packers at 12-of-166 (7.2%) possessions.
Quarterback
Drew Brees: Brees has thrown 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions over his past four games with three or more touchdowns in all of those games. The most recent two of those games came outdoors, where his splits have historically taken a dip from his gaudy production at home, where he is this weekend. In six games at home this season, Brees averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 332.8 yards, and 24.7 fantasy points per game as opposed to 7.1 Y/A, 236.0 yards, and 19.3 fantasy points per game on the road. Brees has faced a Mike Zimmer-led Minnesota defense four times. In those games, he’s yet to have a 300-yard passing game, averaging 7.3 Y/A and 15.5 fantasy points per game while throwing for two or fewer touchdowns in three of those four games. Three of those four games have come in Minnesota.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins’s season closed the same way it began for fantasy purposes. Through Weeks 1-4, Cousins was the average QB25 per game, averaging 10.8 fantasy points per game. Then he went on a seven-game tear in which he was the average QB9 (21.7 points per game) before struggling once again to close the season, as the average QB24 (12.3 points per game) over his four games Weeks 13-16. The last time Cousins was in action in Week 16, he threw for a season-low 3.9 yards per pass attempt against the Packers. The Saints ranked 21st in passing points allowed per game (15.4) in large part to allowing 26 touchdown passes this season (22nd). On a per play basis, they ranked 11th in yards per pass attempt (6.9) and fifth in pressure rate (26.4%).
Running back
Dalvin Cook: Cook missed the final two games of the regular season with a shoulder injury, but was second among all running backs in PPR points per game (20.6) this season when active. Cook hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since Week 7 and has run into some struggles on the ground, carrying 47 times for 144 yards (3.1 YPC) over his past four games played. The Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of their past 42 games and ranked third in the league in yards per carry allowed to running backs (3.7 YPC). But where the Saints are vulnerable to backs is in the passing game, ranking 22nd in receiving points allowed per game (11.3) to backfields. Cook was 12th among all backs this season in receiving points per game (7.5).
Alvin Kamara: After a nine-game scoring drought midseason, Kamara has found the end zone four times over the past two games. He is averaging 16.6 touches for 85.1 total yards per game over his eight games since returning to the lineup in Week 10. The Vikings run defense has been all over the place over the back half of the season. They’ve allowed huge games on the ground to backs on the Chiefs (135 yards), Seahawks (205 yards), Packers (187 yards), and Bears (141 yards) over their past eight games, but have also stopped Ezekiel Elliott (20 carries for 47 yards) and the Chargers backs (19 carries for 62 yards) over that stretch.
Wide receiver
Michael Thomas: Thomas had eight or more receptions in 13 games this season on his way to an NFL record 149 receptions this season. Thomas accounted for a league-high 31.8% of the New Orleans targets this season and a massive 66.3% share of the team’s targets to wide receivers. The Vikings ranked 31st in receptions allowed per game to opposing wideouts (14.4) as outside cornerbacks Trae Waynes (61 receptions) and Xavier Rhodes (59) allowed the fifth and sixth most receptions in coverage this season among cornerbacks. The three times Thomas has locked up with Rhodes, he’s had games of 5-81-0, 7-85-2, and 5-45-0.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs will forever be a villain to the Saints given his 61-yard catch and run to bounce New Orleans out of the 2017 playoffs. He’s torched the Saints for games of 10-119-1, 6-137-1, and 7-93-2 over his career. Diggs accounted for 41% of the Minnesota air yards this season — which ranked second in the league — on his way to a career-high 17.9 yards per reception. Matchup wise, Diggs should see Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins often on the outside, where he runs 83% of his routes. From Week 4 on, Jenkins ranks first in passer rating allowed in coverage (27.6) while Lattimore ranks ninth (55.9), as the duo of corners allowed just one touchdown in their coverage over that span.
Adam Thielen: A Week 7 hamstring injury sapped the back half of Thielen’s season. He played just 16 snaps Weeks 7-14. Over his two games since returning to the field in Week 15, Thielen has caught just 3-of-7 targets for 27 yards. He does gain a matchup advantage by running 33% of his routes from the slot, where the Saints ranked 30th in points allowed to receivers, but takes a step of faith to trust.
Tre’Quan Smith: Smith has surpassed Ted Ginn as the second wideout for the Saints, out-snapping Ginn 126-62 over the past three games. Smith has had more than two catches in just two games all season, but he has caught a touchdown pass in four of the past six games.
Tight end
Jared Cook: Cook only has 12 total targets over his past four games, but has shown his scoring value by catching seven touchdowns over his past eight games played with Brees while averaging a career-high 16.4 yards per catch this season. The Vikings allowed just one touchdown to a tight end this season, but that was fortunate as they ranked 25th in receptions allowed to the position (5.3 per game).
Kyle Rudolph: Rudolph was riding a touchdown wave, reaching the end zone six times of the six games Weeks 7-13, but has shown his floor when he fails to score. Failing to score in each of his past four games, Rudolph has six catches for 66 yards in those games. He’s gone over 50 yards just twice all season, making him a touchdown-dependent option on a weekend with a shallow pool of viable tight ends.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
BUF at HOU | TEN at NE | MIN at NO | SEA at PHI