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Best NFL Games to Bet on for Conference Championship Round

Championship Sunday has two big games in the NFL this weekend. Let's preview the games below for an idea of which teams will earn an invite to Super Bowl LX.

Sunday| 3:00 PM ET | New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (+5.5, O/U 42.5)

In his second season as a starter, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye can do something Tom Brady never did: Win a road playoff game at Denver. Even Brady was 0-3 at Mile High, the site where Josh Allen turned the ball over four times last week in a 33-30 loss, the first playoff win for the Broncos since Super Bowl 50. It was also that season in 2015 when the Broncos beat the Patriots with an offense coordinated by Josh McDaniels. But the Patriots come to Denver as a considerable road favorite after the spread moved a full touchdown with the news that starter Bo Nix is out for the season after ankle surgery.

Nix was injured on the game-winning drive in overtime, rushing for a 2-yard loss that cost the Broncos so much more, as they would have been home favorites with Nix here. Now, they must turn to Jarrett Stidham, a quarterback the Patriots actually drafted in the fourth round in 2019. He has four career starts, and two of them were for McDaniels in Las Vegas in 2022. The other two were for Sean Payton in 2023 with Denver, so he has real coaching pedigree, which started with Bill Belichick in New England. But Stidham has big shoes to fill as the Broncos only handed the ball off 10 times to running backs last week. They must protect Stidham better with a run game, as the Patriots are playing incredible defense.

It could be harder on Stidham, too, with the injuries the Broncos have at the skill positions. They're not sure if running back J.K. Dobbins, their best runner, can return this week or not after a lengthy absence. The status of some wideouts who were injured in Saturday's game is also unclear, including Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin. Stidham is going to have his work cut out for him against a secondary that intercepted C.J. Stroud (Texans) four times before halftime on Sunday. They also have a great corner in Christian Gonzalez, who can take on Courtland Sutton.

But if the Broncos are going to win this one or make it close, it has to be done on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos led the NFL this year with 68 sacks, including a team-high 14.0 sacks by Nik Bonitto. Fortunately, sacks are one of the biggest flaws for Drake Maye, who has already taken 10 sacks and fumbled six times in two playoff games. He has five turnovers total in the playoffs despite the Patriots winning each game by two touchdowns, a sign of how great their defense has been. Maye has also played much better in the second half of games, which is where the Broncos have been a strong team all year.

Denver is 8-1 at game-winning drive opportunities as Nix tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive last week. Stidham has never led a game-winning drive, though he almost upset the 2022 49ers in an overtime loss in Vegas. But he could be tested to win this one late if it's a low-scoring affair, as it likely needs to be if the Broncos are going to pull off the upset.

Remember, these teams had the two weakest strength of schedules this year to get to this game. The Patriots are catching a historic break with Stidham having to start a title game after two years of inactivity. However, Sean Payton is a very experienced offensive coach, and if he wants to cement his legacy by getting to the Super Bowl with a second franchise with a backup quarterback coming in cold, this would be the perfect way to cement a Hall of Fame bust with a win here.

Sunday| 6:30 PM ET | Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, O/U 47.5)

When these teams met in Week 16, it was the Game of the Year, with the Seahawks rallying from a 30-14 deficit in the final 10:00 to force overtime, where they won in historic walk-off fashion after a 2-point conversion gave them the 38-37 win. That's the first game in NFL history in which 15 points were scored in overtime, with both teams finding the end zone.

That game is also why the Rams (14-5) are just the No. 5 seed and on the road for this one against the Seahawks (15-3). These teams both finished over 100 points better in scoring differential compared to the rest of the NFC, so maybe it was inevitable they'd meet here with the Super Bowl on the line. The Seahawks are a slight road favorite, but home-field advantage could be huge in a stadium as loud as Seattle's. The Rams are used to playing there, but they have struggled on the road in these playoffs, just getting by the Panthers and Bears. The Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense and nearly beat the Rams on the road in a game where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions.

This game is likely to come down to which quarterback protects the ball better and doesn't give the other team great field position. Darnold did a poor job of that in the first game and has six interceptions against the Rams this year. But Matthew Stafford has not been that accurate since he injured his throwing hand in Carolina. He actually became the first quarterback in 101 tries since 1970 last week to win a road game while throwing 40 passes, completing only 50%, and not throwing a touchdown. It was a grind, but it was also quite cold in Chicago. The weather shouldn't be a factor here (cloudy and around 40 degrees).

But the Seahawks have lived on short fields in the second half of the season. Their average touchdown drive since Week 13 has started inside opponent territory, a full 6.0 yards better than any other team in that span. The Seahawks also have eight return touchdowns (six since November), including a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed to start last week's 41-6 demolition of the 49ers in the Divisional Round. The Seahawks also sparked their comeback against the Rams with a punt return touchdown, so the Rams really have to watch out on special teams, which has been a problem area for them all year. That's where the Seahawks can make up a lot of hidden yards and get superior field position, as Darnold hasn't been driving long fields for weeks now.

The Rams have done a good job of protecting Stafford against this pass rush, as he's yet to take a sack in two games against Seattle. The running game has also been there for both teams in both games, so it's just a matter of which quarterback can avoid the huge mistakes that we've seen lead to so many losses in the playoffs for teams this year.

It should also be a great coaching matchup. Sean McVay, who turns 40 on Saturday, is 10-5 in the playoffs and 7-1 when he's facing a team in a rematch from the regular season. The only loss was last year in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Seattle coach Mike Macdonald is only in his second season, but he is 7-0 in rematches against NFC West rivals, so that's impressive too.

Finally, it's the Rams' No. 1 scoring offense against the Seahawks' No. 1 scoring defense. Historically, the No. 1 defense is 8-7 in such playoff matchups since 1970. However, that includes a 5-1 record in neutral-site Super Bowls. That means the defense is only 3-6 in playoff games before the Super Bowl, but at least the Seahawks are home for this one, where the home team wins 67.7% of the time in a Conference Championship Game rematch from the regular season.