How do the best NFL coaches evaluate quarterback play at the college level?
The trouble with some college offenses is that it’s easier to generate tremendous counting stats due to the way the offenses are constructed, through the incorporation of superior spacing and timing.
Average quarterbacks are capable of putting up stats that elite quarterbacks only dreamed of years ago.
Additionally, spacing is different in college than in the NFL, and some coaches are relying less on their eyes when studying the tape of college prospects.
As such, it makes evaluating quarterback play much more challenging.
The one trait Sean Payton values more than any other is processing speed.
But how do you measure processing speed?
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How Sean Payton Measures Processing Speed
Payton created a proxy for processing speed by focusing on when quarterbacks make mistakes, such as taking sacks, fumbling the ball, or throwing an interception.
He turned it into a formula.
According to ESPN’s Seth Wickersham:
When Payton scouted [Patrick] Mahomes, he sought to develop a formula that would evaluate the most vexing trait for college quarterbacks making the transition to the NFL: processing speed, the ability to react a fraction of a second faster than required in college. He tried to do it not by researching a quarterback's successes but by analyzing his failures. Quarterbacks with high rates of sacks and turnovers either freeze or panic, he felt. “If a quarterback is sacked quite a bit in college, per drop back, you can improve that some,” Payton says now. “But it generally means the processing is a little delayed.”
He didn't take into account offensive line competency, and he was unconcerned with arm strength. [Drew] Brees had a B-level arm. What he did at a Hall of Fame level was multitask – making adjustments at the line of scrimmage and recognizing problems and solutions – all in seconds.
Payton used his formula in 2024 when looking to draft a franchise quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
He evaluated Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix with his formula.
- Williams: 17.5% failure rate
- Maye: 10.5% failure rate
- McCarthy: 7.8% failure rate
- Nix: 2.3% failure rate
It wasn’t close.
Payton drafted Nix, and the rest is history.
This past season, Nix helped lead the Broncos to a 14-3 record as the AFC’s No. 1 seed thanks to an outstanding defense and Nix’s ability to avoid negative plays, which was exactly what Payton was looking for.
Ranking 2026 NFL Draft Quarterbacks by Processing Speed
Let’s look at the 2026 quarterback draft class using Payton’s proxy to evaluate quarterback processing speed by examining their failure rate in 2025.
| Rank | Failure Rate | 2026 QB Prospect | College |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.1% | Joe Fagnano | Connecticut |
| 2 | 5.3% | Haynes King | Georgia Tech |
| 3 | 6.3% | Drew Allar | Penn State |
| 4 | 6.6% | Cade Klubnik | Clemson |
| 5 | 6.9% | Carson Beck | Miami (FL) |
| 6 | 7.1% | Sawyer Robertson | Baylor |
| 7 | 7.3% | Garrett Nussmeier | LSU |
| 8 | 8.7% | Diego Pavia | Vanderbilt |
| 9 | 8.9% | Ty Simpson | Alabama |
| 10 | 9.0% | Fernando Mendoza | Indiana |
| 11 | 9.3% | Behren Morton | Texas Tech |
| 12 | 9.4% | Joey Aguilar | Tennessee |
| 13 | 10.3% | Jalon Daniels | Kansas |
| 14 | 10.7% | Mark Gronowski | Iowa |
| 15 | 11.5% | Luke Altmyer | Illinois |
| 16 | 12.5% | Cole Payton | North Dakota State |
| 17 | 12.9% | Taylen Green | Arkansas |
| 18 | 13.3% | Athan Kaliakmanis | Rutgers |
It is worth noting that Fernando Mendoza, who is widely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick, ranks just 10th in this exercise.
You can read more about him in Rich Hribar's pre-draft fantasy profile.
That is one spot behind Ty Simpson, who is the only other quarterback getting first-round buzz.
Once considered a potential No. 1 overall pick, Penn State's Drew Allar is likely to go on Day 2 following a disastrous final season in college, but he comes in third in this metric.