Josh Allen admitted he lost the Bills' playoff game with 4 turnovers and took responsibility for it.
Buffalo lost 33-30, and Sean McDermott was fired less than 24 hours later.
The Bills' latest loss was different than most offensively, because it was a VERY atypical Allen playoff performance.
Unfortunately, allowing 33 points defensively was a very typical McDermott playoff defensive performance.
Even including last night’s terrible game, Allen in the playoffs since 2020, out of 28 qualifying QBs, ranks:
#1 success rate (50%)
#2 EPA per play (+0.14)
#3 completion rate (68%)
And yet the Bills have:
0 Conference Championships
0 Super Bowl appearances
0 Super Bowl wins
The reason is not Josh Allen.
Even in that last game, with 4 Allen turnovers, look at what the Bills defense gave up to the Bo Nix-led Broncos:
- 73-yard touchdown drive
- 70-yard touchdown drive
- 69-yard touchdown drive
- 75-yard field goal drive
- 64-yard field goal drive
27 of the Broncos' 33 points came on exceedingly long drives that had nothing to do with Allen’s turnovers.
It was McDermott’s defense.
As good as Allen is and can be, it’s hard to win when your defense is giving up in playoff losses, by year:
2025: 33 points allowed, lost 33-30
2024: 32 points allowed, lost 32-29
2023: 27 points allowed, lost 27-24
2022: 27 points allowed, lost 27-10
2021: 42 points allowed, lost 42-36
2020: 38 points allowed, lost 38-24
That’s a total of 199 points allowed in playoff losses since 2020, #1 most of any team in the NFL.
That’s an average of 33.2 points allowed in playoff losses.
Out of 12 teams with at least three playoff losses since 2020, the Bills have allowed the #2 most points per game.
Only the Steelers have allowed more in losses.
Teams like the Ravens (21.2) and Packers (24.2) allowed nearly 10 points per game fewer in playoff losses, making life far easier on their quarterback.
Don’t want to look in terms of points? Instead want to compare efficiency?
Out of 30 teams to lose playoff games since 2020, the Bills defense in playoff losses has ranked:
#29 in success rate (47.1%)
#26 in EPA per play (-0.25)
#27 in third down conversion rate allowed (54%)
#27 in punt rate forced per drive (19.7%)
#27 in yards per drive allowed (43)
#23 in red zone conversion rate allowed (48%)
That’s not good enough.
Not on regular downs. Not in high leverage moments. Not in the red zone.
That’s how you lose games.
Meanwhile, the offense averaged 25.5 points scored in playoff losses.
Where does that rank among the 12 teams with at least three playoff losses since 2020?
#1 most points scored per game in playoff losses.
Not another team is close.
1. 25.5 – Bills
2. 21.0 – Rams and Bucs
4. 20.3 – Cowboys
5. 19.5 – Eagles
6. 19.0 – Steelers
7. 18.8 – Packers
8. 18.3 – Chiefs
9. 15.0 – Chargers
10. 13.8 – Ravens
11. 13.3 – Texans
12. 13.0 – 49ers
The Bills have lost games with the #1 best scoring offense in losses paired with the #2 worst scoring defense.
That’s too much pressure on any quarterback.
Too long has there been an acceptance of this massive issue for a defensive minded head coach.
It’s incredible to think of it like this, if the defense simply allowed:
- 29 points to Denver in 2025 in the Divisional Round
- 28 points to the Chiefs in 2024 in the Conference Championship
- 23 points to the Chiefs in 2023 in the Divisional Round
They would have played in a Super Bowl against the Eagles, an AFC Championship against the Patriots, and another AFC Championship against the Ravens.
The Bills lost all three games by 3 points each despite their offense scoring 30, 29, and 24 points.
The Bills needed a change.
Allen deserved a change.
So, they fired McDermott and now begin their search for his successor.
While the offense has been a strength, it has regressed some the last few years.
It’s hard not to contrast the final three years with Brian Daboll calling plays (2020-2022) and the three years since (2023-2025).
In Daboll’s last 3 years in Buffalo, he emphasized fast starts, building halftime leads, and didn’t require nearly as much from Allen in the fourth quarter of games, not asking him to play Superman late.
In the last three years, Allen has needed to grab his cape in the fourth quarter to erase deficits far too often.
Just look at the numbers:
2020-2022: 34 halftime leads to 9 halftime deficits
2023-2025: 29 halftime leads to 23 halftime deficits
The Bills built those leads with aggressive offense and got the most out of Allen early in games.
In the first half of games, Allen recorded the following performance:
2020-2022: +0.09 EPA per pass, 49% success rate, 7.3 Y/A, 37% first down rate
2023-2025: +0.04 EPA per pass, 44% success rate, 7.1 Y/A, 32% first down rate
Allen’s performance naturally drove the entire offense to be more efficient.
First half efficiency, 2020-2022:
- 2.75 points per drive
- 38.0 yards per drive
- 48% of drives reached the red zone or scored before
- 43% of drives were punts or turnovers
2023-2025:
- 2.53 points per drive
- 35.2 yards per drive
- 44% of drives reacthe hed red zone or scored before
- 46% of drives were punts or turnovers
Daboll’s aggressive approach to early situations to build leads is the correct approach to winning games.
And he has chemistry with Allen.
The only goal of the Buffalo Bills should be to win the Super Bowl.
McDermott, a defensive head coach, couldn’t get his defense to play well enough to support an Allen-led offense.
Near term, with such a massive move at the top, the Bills may take one step back before taking two steps forward.
But it can’t be more than a slight hiccup.
Allen, when healthy, always gives the Bills a higher floor than most teams.
That said, we just saw the Chiefs, even with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, record only 6 wins.
Buffalo must figure out how to convert Allen into a Lombardi Trophy.
The AFC East, with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, is not getting easier to win anytime soon.
What the future holds for the Bills is anyone’s guess, but the fact is they must get better both offensively and defensively.
In the end, the lesson for Buffalo is brutally simple: you do not waste a quarterback like Allen.
For five straight postseasons, the Bills paired elite offensive production with substandard defensive performance and conservative game management.
The results were exactly what the numbers predicted: no conference titles, no Super Bowls, only heartbreak and squandered opportunity.
Firing McDermott is not about scapegoating one bad night in Denver.
It is an overdue acknowledgment that the organizational model around Allen has been fundamentally misaligned.
The next hire must reflect a different philosophy: an offensive head coach who builds leads early, maximizes Allen’s strengths, and a defensive coordinator who can keep playoff opponents in the low-to-mid 20s instead of the 30s.
Anything less is malpractice.
The window is open right now, but it will not stay open forever.
If the Bills get this wrong, they will have turned one of the most gifted quarterbacks of his era into a cautionary tale instead of a champion.