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I normally would not do this, but I’ve got to vent.
I don’t know what John Lynch is doing.
For the last several years, I’ve looked at industry big boards and compared the “wisdom of crowds” ranking of draft prospects with what each team actually does.
The 49ers' recent record is shocking:
2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32
So this isn’t just a 2026 thing.
This has been going on for several years.
The 49ers are the WORST in the NFL at drafting, and local reporters have noticed.
49ers reporter Grant Cohn asked Lynch after the draft:
“John, your draft board seems to deviate quite a bit from the consensus. Why are you confident with that, given your track record drafting the last few years? It seems like it leads to you making reaches.”
Lynch replied:
“That depends who’s consensus. We’ve got consensus in this building. That’s the consensus I care about.”
The bravado in that response seems to indicate Lynch feels like he’s not reaching and is drafting well.
The great thing about something like the draft is that we can actually measure his track record.
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John Lynch's Biggest Reaches Since 2023
The largest reaches by Lynch, in order of actual draft capital his pick was “off” compared to consensus, since 2023:
Round 2 WR De'Zhaun Stribling (2026) – expected at 99, taken at 33
Round 3 PK Jake Moody (2023) – expected at 275, taken at 99
Round 3 LB Nick Martin (2025) – expected at 192, taken at 75
Round 3 RB Kaelon Black (2026) – expected at 214, taken at 90
Round 4 WR Jordan Watkins (2025) – expected at 304, taken at 138
Round 3 TE Cameron Latu (2023) – expected at 188, taken at 101
Round 4 OG Carver Willis (2026) – expected at 232, taken at 127
Round 5 LB Jaden Dugger (2026) – expected at 284, taken at 154
Round 3 CB Upton Stout (2025) – expected at 173, taken at 100
Round 2 CB Renardo Green (2024) – expected at 110, taken at 64
Round 6 OT Enrique Cruz Jr. (2026) – expected at 280, taken at 179
Round 5 S Marques Sigle (2025) – expected at 234, taken at 160
Round 2 DL Alfred Collins (2025) – expected at 61, taken at 43
Round 5 EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (2023) – expected at 228, taken at 173
Round 6 OG Jarrett Kingston (2024) – expected at 297, taken at 215
Round 4 RB Isaac Guerendo (2024) – expected at 164, taken at 129
Round 5 CB Darrell Luter Jr. (2023) – expected at 183, taken at 155
Round 7 TE Brayden Willis (2023) – expected at 276, taken at 247
Round 3 ED Romello Height (2026) – expected at 78, taken at 70
Round 5 CB Ephesians Prysock (2026) – expected at 141, taken at 139
Round 4 WR Jacob Cowing (2024) – expected at 137, taken at 135
Round 7 QB Kurtis Rourke (2025) – expected at 230, taken at 227
The 49ers have been clearly the worst in the NFL per DCOE over this time period.
Some of these were 2026 draft picks, so we have to ignore them for now.
Review that list and judge for yourself.
How many of those picks was Lynch right to take early?
How many were busts?
If you don’t want to do the math, I’ll help.
How Many of Lynch's Reaches Actually Paid Off?
Let's evaluate all 16 non-2026 picks, one by one, with the largest reaches listed first:
Round 3 PK Jake Moody (2023) – expected at 275, taken at 99
Cut from the 49ers.
The single most emblematic pick of this era of 49ers drafting. San Francisco used a third-round pick (176 spots ahead of his projected value) on a kicker, making Moody just the second kicker selected in the top 100 in 15 years.
In 2024, he converted just 70.6% of his kicks, the second-worst rate among qualified NFL kickers.
Then in Week 1 of 2025, he went 1 for 3 against Seattle (one kick hit the upright from 27 yards), and the team cut him.
He bounced to the Bears' practice squad and then to Washington.
Burning a third-round pick on a kicker who couldn't make it through Week 1 of his third season is about as bad as it gets.
Round 3 LB Nick Martin (2025) – expected at 192, taken at 75
Has done little to justify a third-round grade.
The 2025 rookie was buried on the depth chart all season.
Graded with a 50 by PFF, he registered just 15 total snaps last year.
Round 4 WR Jordan Watkins (2025) – expected at 304, taken at 138
Watkins struggled with injuries early in his rookie season and never carved out a role.
He finished with 2 catches for 26 yards in four games.
Round 3 TE Cameron Latu (2023) – expected at 188, taken at 101
CUT.
San Francisco grabbed Latu 87 spots before his projected slot.
He tore his meniscus before the regular season began, was placed on injured reserve as a rookie, and never played a single regular-season snap for San Francisco in 2023.
The team waived him in August 2024.
Round 3 CB Upton Stout (2025) – expected at 173, taken at 100
Among 114 CBs last year, Stout graded 75th in coverage and 59th overall per PFF.
Round 2 CB Renardo Green (2024) – expected at 110, taken at 64
Among 114 CBs last year, Green graded 93rd in coverage and 92nd overall per PFF.
Round 5 S Marques Sigle (2025) – expected at 234, taken at 160
Among 98 safeties last year, Sigle graded 96th in coverage and 96th overall per PFF
Round 2 DL Alfred Collins (2025) – expected at 61, taken at 43
Collins has been buried in a revolving door of 49ers defensive linemen.
Taken as a second rounder, Collins massively underwhelmed.
Last year, out of 134 defensive linemen, Collins graded 123rd overall per PFF.
Round 5 EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (2023) – expected at 228, taken at 173
CUT.
Beal spent two-plus years with the 49ers as a special teams reserve and depth edge rusher, never developing into a legitimate rotational contributor.
Round 6 OG Jarrett Kingston (2024) – expected at 297, taken at 215
CUT.
Kingston never even made the 49ers roster.
He was waived in August 2024.
Round 4 RB Isaac Guerendo (2024) – expected at 164, taken at 129
Aside from spot starts due to injury, Guerendo has been relegated to special teams or has been a healthy scratch.
He struggled with ball security, pass blocking, and vision.
He had 0 carries and 0 receptions in 2025.
Round 5 CB Darrell Luter Jr. (2023) – expected at 183, taken at 155
Three years into his career, Luter remains primarily a special teams player.
He did not play enough snaps last year to be ranked, but his grade of 55.4 in coverage was well below satisfactory.
Round 7 TE Brayden Willis (2023) – expected at 276, taken at 247
Long-time practice squad/fringe body who has been kept around almost entirely for his special teams work.
Round 4 WR Jacob Cowing (2024) – expected at 137, taken at 135
Functioned almost entirely as a punt returner, not a receiver.
Cowing's offensive contribution was minimal in 2024, and he never developed into a legitimate target in the passing game.
He had 4 catches in 2024 and missed last year with a hamstring injury.
Round 7 QB Kurtis Rourke (2025) – expected at 230, taken at 227
49ers' backup/emergency quarterback behind Brock Purdy, with Mac Jones ahead of him.
The Bottom Line on John Lynch's Draft Record
In total, we’re talking about 16 players drafted from 2023 to 2025 and graded as “reaches” according to the consensus big board.
Was Lynch smarter than the consensus?
Absolutely not.
Most of these players were complete busts.
So for Lynch to say he doesn’t care what anyone else thinks outside of the building shows how poorly he cares about process.
Good process isn’t isolating yourself and assuming you know everything, surrounding yourself with “yes men,” and drafting whoever you want, however you want.
It hasn’t paid off for the 49ers.
And this isn’t opinion. It’s fact.
Once again, review Lynch’s DCOE rank over the last four years:
2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32
23 total players drafted after Round 1.
Two were drafted where expected.
16 were reaches.
Almost all the reaches were busts.
The only way a team drafts like this is if they are so arrogant and oblivious that they don’t care about the sentiment of all the 31 other NFL teams.
They will just draft off their board and expect it to work out.
It’s hard to reconcile why the 49ers are so confident in drafting in opposition to the consensus, given their track record, but they seemingly ignore it and do their own thing.
The fact that they win games doesn’t mean they’re doing it right.
I can only imagine what Kyle Shanahan could do with a proper general manager drafting these players.
We don’t know what this team could be if they drafted better.
We only know what they are when they reach more than any other team over the last four years combined.
Lynch can claim he knows better than the wisdom of crowds.
The data shows he doesn’t.