NFL QB Accuracy Vs Winning: Week 3

For the third week in a row, the accuracy of the NFL quarterback is the most telling determination of who won or lost the game. Just like Weeks 1 and 2, at least 75% of the QBs with the worst difference between completion percentage and Expected Completion Percentage lost their games. This week 10 of the 12 worst lost.

For the year, take the top 10 worst for the season, roll Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick into one, and they are a combined 6-16. It’s a strange number of games because a few have gotten hurt already and Teddy Bridgewater won with his one qualifying start this past week.

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Let’s dig into Week 3 first. Just staple the Miami QB, whoever it is, on the list every week it seems. Rosen completed 16% fewer of his passes than he should have by Expected Completion Percentage. According to Next Gen Stats he should have completed a respectable 62% of his passes. He completed 46%. Heck, I started my two backup QBs last week against a great team in Louisiana and they completed well over 70% for over 400 yards. It’s hard but not if you will keep your eyes downfield and your feet steady. Miami isn’t really set up to support good quarterback performance — there were a few drops on well-thrown balls — but Rosen also has plenty of room to improve over the course of the season.

Carson Wentz was next worst, 13% worse than he should have been. He has been disappointing and I think it is his feet. Look at his first play of the game last Sunday vs the Eagles.

He takes a simple 3-step drop and has a simple presnap read of either the outside receiver on his left or inside on his right. He chooses left and as you see after he drops, when he steps and throws, his lead foot is wide left of his target. The ball also goes left. That is a terrible throw for an NFL QB. That just can’t happen to a superior QB in the league.

Here is another one that cost them a touchdown.

 

They check into a great play for the coverage with a flag in man vs a single-high safety (impossible for him to help) Although the defender grabs Nelson Agholor, Wentz steps wide left of his target, overcompensates, and throws the ball way high and long. I am not sure if this is because he is self-protecting his knee or just got into a bad habit but it needs to be fixed.

Next on the list was my favorite QB to bash’s backup, Luke Falk. He stepped in at 11% worse than he should have been. When one play can make or break a drive and you never know when that drive changes the entire complexion of the game, you just cannot miss that many passes.

Here is one example of Falk’s problem. In the first quarter on 3rd and 6, he gets ample time to throw. Watch his lead foot. He is throwing down the sideline, but his foot is planted down the middle of the field. And he is supposed to pick it up and step toward the target and he never picks it up. Instead, he simply tries to contort his body towards the throw and throws what looks like a pass my sister used to toss me in the back yard. Playing the Patriots, every throw counts.

Let’s take a final look at Andy Dalton. He is a seasoned pro. He has to be able to take over games at crucial times. Dalton is a victim of bad play calls (screens on 3rd and 10), missed reads partially because of pressure, and partially because he doesn’t keep his eyes downfield. But when those things are not happening, he has to be more accurate so decent plays turn into long plays.

With 2:06 left to go in the first half, and down 14-0, they have plenty of time to drive and score a TD right before half giving them some momentum going into second half. Auden Tate runs dig underneath a clearing route and Dalton hits him but high and behind. Instead of catching and continuing across on a huge play, he has to stop to catch it and then gets tackled for a 24 yard gain. Those plays are huge!

 

You might notice a trend of some recurring quarterbacks and the list of season-long underachievers in expected completion percentage shouldn’t be too surprising. So you gamblers, looking at the season-worst thus far, put you a few moneyline parlays in on their opponents and watch your account grow like weeds in your yard in the spring.

Hope you enjoyed. Tweet it and retweet these bad QB performances and maybe it will motivate them to throw it better!

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