2024 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2024:

  1. Atlanta Falcons
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. Chicago Bears
  4. New York Jets
  5. New Orleans Saints

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2024:

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Minnesota Vikings

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We’ve ranked the 2024 schedule for every NFL team from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32), plus current betting odds and implied win totals for every NFL team.

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule:

RankTeamLineOver OddsImplied Line
1Atlanta Falcons9.5-1409.8
2Los Angeles Chargers8.5-1608.9
3Chicago Bears8.5-1308.7
4New York Jets9.5-1159.55
5New Orleans Saints7.5-1207.6
6Cincinnati Bengals10.5-12010.6
7Indianapolis Colts8.5+1108.3
8Miami Dolphins9.5-1459.85
9Philadelphia Eagles10.5+10510.35
10Carolina Panthers4.5-1354.75
11Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.5+1258.15
12Kansas City Chiefs11.5-11011.5
13Washington Commanders6.5-1206.6
14Jacksonville Jaguars8.5-1258.65
15Seattle Seahawks7.5-1107.5
16Arizona Cardinals6.5-1206.6
17Los Angeles Rams8.5-1108.5
18San Francisco 49ers11.5+12511.15
19Green Bay Packers10.5+13010.1
20New York Giants6.5+1156.25
21Detroit Lions10.5-11010.5
22Dallas Cowboys10.5+10010.4
23Buffalo Bills10.5-12010.6
24Las Vegas Raiders6.5-1356.75
25Denver Broncos5.5-1355.75
26Houston Texans9.5-1409.8
27Tennessee Titans6.5+1256.15
28Minnesota Vikings6.5-1356.75
29Baltimore Ravens11.5+11011.3
30Cleveland Browns8.5-1308.7
31New England Patriots4.5-1504.87
32Pittsburgh Steelers8.5-1208.6

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there are not any perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2024 Vegas win totals is much better than most widely used metrics that incorporate the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2024 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each NFL team, based on Vegas win totals.

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

  • Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)
  • Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)
  • Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)
  • Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

Are strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

  • Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total
  • Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total

Trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (4 out of 17 in 2023).

Likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often (9 out of 15 in 2023).

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2023 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2023) versus the projected 2024 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.

TeamForecast 2024 SOS2023 Actual SOS2024 Improvement Rank
Atlanta Falcons1211
Los Angeles Chargers2272
Chicago Bears3411
New York Jets4183
New Orleans Saints5121
Cincinnati Bengals6321
Indianapolis Colts7119
Miami Dolphins8814
Philadelphia Eagles91011
Carolina Panthers10168
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11920
Kansas City Chiefs121510
Washington Commanders131217
Jacksonville Jaguars14255
Seattle Seahawks15246
Arizona Cardinals16294
Los Angeles Rams17266
San Francisco 49ers181421
Green Bay Packers19529
New York Giants202014
Detroit Lions211326
Dallas Cowboys22331
Buffalo Bills23730
Las Vegas Raiders241725
Denver Broncos252121
Houston Texans26632
Tennessee Titans272321
Minnesota Vikings281927
Baltimore Ravens292817
Cleveland Browns303014
New England Patriots312227
Pittsburgh Steelers323117