With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2024:
Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.
NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2024:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New York Jets
- Chicago Bears
What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2024:
Based on projected win totals, the New England Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.
NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2024:
- New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Cleveland Browns
- Tennessee Titans
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We’ve ranked the 2024 schedule for every NFL team from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32), plus current betting odds and implied win totals for every NFL team.
2024 NFL Strength of Schedule:
| Rank | Team | Line | Over Odds | Implied Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 | -145 | 9.85 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 | -120 | 8.6 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | -125 | 10.65 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 9.5 | -140 | 9.8 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 9 | -130 | 9.2 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | -115 | 7.55 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | 105 | 8.35 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | -110 | 10.5 |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | -135 | 9.75 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -110 | 11.5 |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | 5.5 | -125 | 5.65 |
| 12 | Washington Commanders | 6.5 | -120 | 6.6 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 | -140 | 7.8 |
| 14 | New York Giants | 6.5 | 115 | 6.25 |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | -115 | 8.55 |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | 100 | 11.4 |
| 17 | Seattle Seahawks | 7.5 | -150 | 7.87 |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 10.5 | -135 | 10.75 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 | -140 | 8.8 |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | -120 | 9.6 |
| 21 | Arizona Cardinals | 6.5 | -110 | 6.7 |
| 22 | Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | -135 | 6.75 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | -110 | 10.5 |
| 24 | Denver Broncos | 5.5 | -140 | 5.8 |
| 25 | Houston Texans | 9.5 | -145 | 9.85 |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | 9.5 | -145 | 9.9 |
| 27 | Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | -145 | 9.85 |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | 110 | 6.3 |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | -140 | 8.8 |
| 30 | Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | -140 | 6.8 |
| 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 120 | 8.2 |
| 32 | New England Patriots | 4.5 | -130 | 4.7 |
2024 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization
While there are not any perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2024 Vegas win totals is much better than most widely used metrics that incorporate the previous season’s record.
Here is a visual breakdown of 2024 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each NFL team, based on Vegas win totals.
Strength of schedule movement since May
| Team | Updated SOS | Spring SOS | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 1 | No Change |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 2 | No Change |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| New York Jets | 4 | 4 | No Change |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 7 | No Change |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 9 | +1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| Washington Commanders | 12 | 13 | +1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13 | 11 | -2 |
| New York Giants | 14 | 20 | +6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 14 | -1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 17 | 15 | -2 |
| Detroit Lions | 18 | 21 | +3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 19 | 17 | -2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20 | 22 | +2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 21 | 16 | -5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 22 | 24 | +2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 23 | 29 | +6 |
| Denver Broncos | 24 | 25 | +1 |
| Houston Texans | 25 | 26 | +1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 26 | 23 | -3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 27 | 19 | -8 |
| Tennessee Titans | 28 | 27 | -1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 29 | 30 | +1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 30 | 28 | -2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 31 | 32 | +1 |
| New England Patriots | 32 | 31 | -1 |
We start tracking strength of schedule in May, when win totals are first released by oddsmakers.
Tracking projected win totals entering Week 1, we can measure which team schedules got harder and which got easier.
The Green Bay Packers are the team whose schedule has increased the most in difficulty since early spring projections.
This relates to the fact they will be playing six games this year against the top-five most bet on teams of the offseason:
- #2 most bet on team: Bears (2 games)
- #3 most bet on team: Seahawks
- #4 most bet on team: Rams
- #5 most bet on team: Lions (2 games)
Because those teams have seen their win totals rise the most, the Packers schedule has thus become more difficult than initially expected.
On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Giants and Ravens.
The Giants’ schedule has gotten slightly easier (from #20 in the spring to #14 presently) because they play five games against the top-five most bet against teams over the offseason:
- #1 most bet against team: Cowboys (2 games)
- #2 most bet against team: Ravens
- #4 most bet against team: Steelers
- #5 most bet against team: Buccaneers
Similarly, the Ravens (while being bet against themselves) have seen their schedule get easier because they, too, play five games against the top-five most bet against teams over the offseason:
- #1 most bet against team: Cowboys
- #3 most bet against team: Bills
- #4 most bet against team: Steelers (2 games)
- #5 most bet against team: Buccaneers
Strength of schedule got harder:
- Packers
- Cardinals
- Bills
- Vikings
- Rams
- Seahawks
- Bucs
- Bears
- Patriots
- Titans
- Jaguars
- Panthers
- Dolphins
- Saints
Strength of schedule got easier:
- Giants
- Ravens
- Bengals
- Lions
- Chiefs
- 49ers
- Cowboys
- Raiders
- Eagles
- Commanders
- Broncos
- Texans
- Browns
- Steelers
No change in strength of schedule rankings: Falcons, Chargers, Jets, Colts
How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?
Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:
- Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)
- Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)
- Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)
- Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)
Are strength of schedule projections accurate?
Short answer: YES
Is strength of schedule important?
- Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total
- Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total
Trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (4 out of 17 in 2023).
Likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often (9 out of 15 in 2023).