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In part because of voter fatigue for Jackson as MVP and the notion that Josh Allen was brilliant without help like Derrick Henry, Allen won the MVP by a small margin.
Allen certainly is deserving of having that hardware at some point in his career because he is absolutely outstanding.
BUT, to me, if Lamar was good enough to win MVP in 2019 and 2023 and had even BETTER stats in 2024 than in either of those two seasons…AND he had even BETTER stats in 2024 than Allen, I don’t see how Allen was the choice last season.
It’s kind of like the old combat sports saying: To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.
If Jackson had a bad year, fine, but he didn’t.
So you better clearly have had a better season than Jackson, and Allen didn’t.
Maybe in some metrics, but take a look at Jackson in 2024:
#1 in EPA per attempt…
…throwing outside the numbers
…throwing when outside the pocket
…early downs without play action
…throwing when kept clean
…vs. all zone coverage
…vs. two high coverage
…in the fourth quarter
…when passing within 2.5 seconds
…inside the red zone
And top five…
…throwing between the numbers
…all short and intermediate attempts
…when pressured
…throwing inside the pocket
…third and fourth downs
…throwing with play action
Those numbers compare Jackson to all other quarterbacks in the NFL.
There are seven different stable quarterback metrics representing performance that should translate most directly year over year to a quarterback’s talent.
Things like passing without pressure, passing from the pocket, etc.
Lamar’s 2024 season was better than his 2023 season in ALL SEVEN STABLE METRICS.
There are eight less stable quarterback metrics, which vary more year to year, such as passing under pressure, passing when blitzed, passing in the fourth quarter, etc.
Lamar’s 2024 season was better than his 2023 season in ALL EIGHT LESS STABLE METRICS.
There are eight location and coverage metrics, such as passing against man or zone coverage, passing between or outside the numbers, passing short or deep, etc.
Lamar’s 2024 season was better than his 2023 season in ALL EIGHT LOCATION AND COVERAGE METRICS.
He was beautifully brilliant in 2024.
Those are regular season statistics, and we can’t talk Jackson and the Ravens unless we also talk playoff performance.
If there is one thing that bugs the hell out of me, it’s the critics of Jackson’s playoff performances.
So let’s do this.
Let’s go back over the last four years. There are 19 playoff QBs with 50+ pass attempts.
Here is where Lamar stacks up in terms of playoff passing out of these 19 QBs:
- #4 in Y/A
- #6 in EPA/play
- #6 in completion rate
- #7 in success rate
Lamar's EPA per play (#6) is higher than Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Brock Purdy, among others.
Lamar's yards per attempt average (#4) is higher than Josh Allen, Mahomes, Jared Goff, Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Brady, among others.
But here's context you should be aware of: Lamar faces the NFL's #1 highest rate of blitzes of any QB in the playoffs (53%).
The NFL average in the playoffs is 26% blitz, less than half what Lamar faces.
For comparison, Burrow is blitzed on just 15% of dropbacks.
Lamar is at 53%!!
Looking at the 19 playoff QBs in this sample, when NOT being blitzed, Lamar ranks:
- #1 in EPA/pass (+0.40)
- #1 in success rate (55%)
- #1 in Y/A (9.7)
LAMAR HAS BEEN THE BEST PLAYOFF QB WHEN NOT BLITZED. PERIOD!
More context you should be aware of: Lamar faces the highest rate of man coverage of any QB in the playoffs (50%).
The NFL average in the playoffs is 27% man coverage, almost half of what Lamar faces.
For comparison, Allen faces man coverage on just 17% of dropbacks.
Lamar is 50%!!
When looking at these 19 QBs against zone coverage, Lamar ranks:
- #1 in EPA/pass (+0.35)
- #1 in success rate (55%)
- #1 in Y/A (10.6)
LAMAR HAS BEEN THE BEST PLAYOFF QB AGAINST ZONE COVERAGE. PERIOD!
Bottom line: Lamar Jackson is the best playoff QB against what most QBs deal with: zone coverage with no blitzes.
He is the #1 QB in the playoffs statistically against what most QBs face most of the time.
But Lamar deals with blitzes on 53% of attempts (NFL avg 26%) and man coverage on 50% (NFL avg 27%), the highest rates for NFL QBs.
This analysis continues in the 2025 Football Preview
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