What Should We Expect From Sam Darnold in Year 2?

Expectations are high for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold’s second season. Darnold showed both flashes of greatness and room for growth in his rookie season. He’ll be working with a new quarterback-minded head coach and a superstar running back in 2019 as tools for success get put into place.

Will Darnold be successful in Year 2? 

Here are the things you should be watching to see whether he will take the next step in 2019.

The stat you most need to know: The deep ball

After getting a Pick-6 out of his system on the first pass of his NFL career, Jets fans saw the best of Darnold in a Week 1 win over the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. 

One highlight was a 41-yard strike for a touchdown to Robby Anderson, which may have raised expectations on how well Darnold could throw the deep ball.

But when Darnold went 0-for-6 on throws at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in Week 2 against the Dolphins, it foreshadowed his struggles to come on passes that long.

Darnold was 13-of-55 on what we are classifying as long passes (20+ yards) last season. That 24% completion percentage ranked 34th out of the 35 quarterbacks with the most such throws in the league (Cam Newton was one-tenth of a point lower).

However, 30 of those 55 attempts (55%) were deemed catchable per review by our Video Scouts, who chart every play of every game. That’s an indication that his low completion percentage wasn’t entirely his fault. His catchable percentage ranked 10th-highest among those same 35 quarterbacks.

The 31 percentage-point difference between his catchable percentage and his completion percentage was the largest in the NFL.

New head coach Adam Gase is probably going to want Darnold to throw it deep. The Dolphins ranked eighth in the percentage of passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, coincidentally one spot behind the Jets

An encouraging sign

After returning in Week 14 from a foot injury that caused him to miss three games, Darnold threw one interception on 125 attempts. This was particularly encouraging given that turnovers were a major concern for him coming out of USC.

Sam Darnold – 2018 Season

A few things tied to those last four games:

• The Jets let him throw it. Of his 125 pass attempts in those last four games, 38% of them traveled more than 10 yards downfield. In his first nine games, 30% of his throws were of that length.
• Darnold found an outlet in an area of the field that he was comfortable throwing to:

On throws 10 yards or fewer to left side of the field

First 9 Games: 57-of-82 for 484 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Last 4 Games: 23-of-26 for 211 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

• Darnold continued to struggle in an area in which improvements will be needed – performing when pressured by the opposing defense:

Darnold Under Pressure

First 9 Games:  40-of-89, 447 yards, 2 TD, 6 INT
Last 4 Games:  18-of-39, 213 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Coachspeak

In a training camp feature posted on YouTube, Gase said he was impressed with how Darnold could make something out of tough situations when he had to break the pocket.

This may have been a case of a few impressive plays overriding the numbers in the mind of the coach. 

His only touchdown was a memorable one that could have influenced Gase a bit, a bold scramble capped by a seven-yard pass to Anderson against the Bills in Week 14. 

The reality is that Darnold has work to do.

Darnold was 32-of-73 for 363 yards when throwing from outside the pocket. His completion percentage on those plays (44%) ranked 23rd of 26. His on-target percentage (60%) ranked 20th. He did average 7.3 yards on 16 scrambles, which ranked right in the middle of the league. That included a 28-yarder in the final game of the season.

Point of Emphasis

One thing Gase also said is that he would like Darnold to know when to give up on a play, rather than force a pass downfield that could be intercepted. Darnold had only two coverage sacks all season. Twenty-two quarterbacks had more.

One Big Difference: He’s got RBs

The Jets’ backfield will look considerably different with Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery getting the bulk of the work. Bell gives Darnold an outlet who will be looking to catch the ball.

Bell caught 85 passes with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017, the most of any running back. He had the 11th-highest catch percentage (81%) among the 52 running backs with at least 30 targets. 

His 52% positive percentage (plays with positive EPA) on potential receptions ranked tied for 10th. And the volume of catches he made helped place him fourth among running backs in Total Points for receiving.

In the last two seasons, Montgomery had a 72% catch percentage, which ranks 60th out of 80 running backs with at least 30 targets the last two seasons. Montgomery’s 49% positive percentage on potential receptions ranked 39th.

Darnold threw 18% of his pass attempts to running backs, which ranked 24th among the 38 quarterbacks who threw at least 150 passes last season. Adam Gase’s former quarterback with the Miami Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill, ranked ninth at 24%. 

Potential Loss

The absence of tight end Chris Herndon, who is suspended for the first four games of the season, is a significant one. Herndon caught 29 of 44 targets thrown by Darnold (66% reception percentage), including four touchdowns. 

The last word

The good thing about the coach-quarterback relationship is this: Gase should have a sense for what Darnold can’t do. In two games against the Dolphins, Darnold threw one touchdown and six interceptions. 

Points Earned per Play (38 quarterbacks with 150+ attempts)

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