Week 4 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds: Best Bets & Longshots

Derrick Henry (+400) is the current favorite to lead the league in rushing yards on Sunday.

Week 4 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds

Week 3 Review

James Cook has back-to-back Sunday rushing-yard titles and the article's first correct pick of the season at +925 odds.

It wasn't the game state that I predicted, but in the article, I touched on efficiency and Cook's workload.

He handled 100% of the running back carries for the second consecutive game.

Game script aside, the Bills won (covered), and Cook had 24 carries against a Chargers defense that had looked solid against the run, but that was partially opponent-driven.

Rushing Yards Leader Betting Strategy

Predicting weekly rushing leaders involves focusing on the correct details.

Last season, volume was the most critical component of earning a weekly rushing title, and volume often correlates with a favorable game script.

In 2025, 15 of the weekly rushing leaders came from a winning team.

Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, and TreVeyon Henderson were the three running backs who led a week while losing, including two losses by 1 point and one by 4 points.

The final score affecting rushing-ceiling games is no coincidence, since game state is a critical driver of rush attempts.

Unfortunately for players like De'Von Achane and Jeremiyah Love, rushing yards correlate with carries, which strongly correlate with playing from ahead.

In 2025, there were 17 instances of a running back reaching 150 or more rushing yards in a single game.

Only 1 running back eclipsed 150 yards in a losing effort, a game in which the Baltimore Ravens squandered a 15-point fourth-quarter lead.

The weekly rushing leader averaged 21.7 carries and 171 rushing yards in 2025, and the median was 161 rushing yards and 21 carries, which provides a good baseline of the ceiling we are looking for.

When chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identifying favorites or short dogs is key.

Week 4 Shortlist

The Ravens are 11-point favorites against the Titans, and Derrick Henry plays against his old team for the first time.

The Vikings and Bills are touchdown favorites, making Aaron Jones and James Cook appealing.

The Lions continue to use Jahmyr Gibbs as a workhorse and don't seem to be concerned about his availability later in the season.

The Lions are favorites against a depleted Panthers defense.

Fading the Henry narrative this week isn't ideal, but it is not December.

The Ravens are down bad at center and face Jeffery Simmons.

Most Week 4 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Aaron Jones (+1900)

I'm not fading the Brian Flores vs. Stephen Ross narrative, which benefits the Vikings' running back.

Since Jordan Mason has missed time, Aaron Jones has handled 92% and 81% of the Vikings' running back carries as the only trusted back on the roster, despite his age and injury concerns.

The Miami Dolphins currently have a team total of 13.5, but the defensive coordinator of the Vikings is highly motivated this week.

The Vikings have thrown the ball 9.4% below expectation on first down, and without Justin Jefferson, I’d expect more of the same this week.

Minnesota's offensive line is a bright spot, ranking sixth in ESPN's run block win rate.

Jones is coming off a game in which he only gained 58 rushing yards.

However, that is the highest total for a running back against the Buccaneers this season.

This is a game where it is easy to envision the Vikings taking a conservative approach, not allowing a Kyler Murray mistake to cost them, and it is in the range of outcomes that Jones gets at least 20 carries with reasonable efficiency.

Week 4 Running Back Longshot Bet: J.K. Dobbins Rushing Ladders

• Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• 70+ Rushing Yards (+145)
• 80+ Rushing Yards (+235)
• 90+ Rushing Yards (+370)
• 100+ Rushing Yards (+509)
• Most Rushing Yards Sunday (+3000)

Dobbins isn't my top selection for most rushing yards, but a small sprinkle on him at 30/1 is worth it.

The Broncos are underdogs, but I think they could hand the 49ers their first loss of the season, or at least keep the game close.

Dobbins had 17 carries and, more importantly, 85% of the running back rushes against the Rams on Monday, in a game in which the Broncos didn’t get their first lead until halfway through the fourth quarter.

The Broncos' run game has been unproductive, but opposing defenses have included the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Rams, all of which finished in the top 11 in rush success rate allowed last season.

The 49ers are scouring the streets near the substation for defensive linemen, which provides an opportunity for Dobbins to have some success this week.

Only the Buffalo Bills have allowed a worse defensive rushing success rate over the past two weeks than the 49ers, and the San Francisco defense has allowed 1.6 or more yards before contact in all three games to opposing running backs.

Denver's offense has a significant edge in the trenches.

ESPN ranks the Broncos eighth in run block win rate and the 49ers 30th in run stop win rate.

Dobbins is another week removed from his stint on the injury report and has ample opportunity for a solid game while Jonah Coleman remains on IR.

NFL Weekly Rushing Yards Leaders