Tracking receiving leaders throughout the season provided insight into the changing NFL meta in terms of passing.
The continued decline in 11 personal league-wide has created a shift in targets.
Wide receiver target share dropped more than 2% across the league as teams diversified to formations with more tight ends on the field.
This creates a drop in opportunity for the secondary receivers for most teams.
| Wild Card Round NFL Odds |
|---|
| NFL Passing Leader Odds |
| NFL Receiving Leader Odds |
| NFL Rushing Leader Odds |
In chasing spike receiving weeks, volume and opportunity are king.
Highlighting target earners in condensed passing trees helps identify the best candidates.
NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Wide Receiver | Receiving Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | 140 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Malik Nabers | 167 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | 145 | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 170 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Emeka Egbuka | 163 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | George Pickens | 168 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | Devonta Smith | 183 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | 143 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 129 | Washington Commanders |
| 10 | Nico Collins | 136 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 11 | Michael Wilson | 185 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 12 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 167 | Tennessee Titans |
| 13 | Jameson Williams | 144 | Green Bay Packers |
| 14 | Puka Nacua | 167 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 15 | Puka Nacua | 181 | Detroit Lions |
| 16 | Puka Nacua | 225 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 17 | Luther Burden | 138 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 18 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 139 | Chicago Bears |
Most Wild Card Round Receiving Yards Prediction: Tetairoa McMillan (+1700)
McMillan eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season on a Panthers team that finished 26th in the league with 3,048 total passing yards.
The potential offensive rookie of the year finished the season with 25.4% of the Panthers' targets and 43.3% of the team's air yards.
McMillan reached double-digit targets in four games this season and posted 130, 100, 99, and 73 receiving yards in those games.
Short of some defensive magic from the Panthers, it is highly likely Carolina will need to throw and live on some high-variance plays against the Rams.
The Panthers had 41 passes this season that traveled 20 or more air yards.
McMillan was targeted on 21 of those passes.
If there is a weakness in the Rams defense, it’s the cornerback position.
The Rams allowed the fourth-most passing yards to wide receivers lined up wide left/right this season, and McMillan played 84.8% of his snaps outside.
McMillan was only targeted twice in the previous matchup as the Panthers were ultra-conservative, but McMillan scored on a 43-yard passing play against the Rams.
McMillan has averaged 16.2 yards per reception on play-action passes, which could be utilized more against a Rams defense that ranks 24th against play-action passes.
McMillan is a longer shot to lead the week in receiving, but his underlying metrics are similar to those receivers who provide spike weeks as he earns volume and is targeted down the field.
A game state in which the Panthers trail or are aggressive against the Rams could elevate the number of pass attempts, which would benefit McMillan.
Wild Card Round Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Dalton Kincaid Ladders
- Anytime Touchdown (+240)
- 50+ Receiving Yards (+141)
- 80 + Receiving Yards (+449)
- 100+ Receiving Yards (+930)
Kincaid has been limited in practice this week, but he played in a meaningless Week 18 game.
It is fair to expect him to continue his normal role in the offense.
Kincaid has run a route on 49.3% of dropbacks in the games he played this season, which is not ideal.
However, he led all tight ends this season with a 2.83 yards per route average.
The Jaguars allowed 59 yards to opposing tight ends per game this season, which was the 10th-highest in the league.
Part of what limits Kincaid’s usage is the Bills' high run rate.
However, the Jaguars are a pass-funnel defense that saw the fewest opposition rushes all season.
If the Jaguars jump out to an early lead, Kincaid could become a bigger part of the game plan should the Bills elevate their pass rate.
