Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Packers against the Vikings and the Bears taking on the Lions.
Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Green Bay Packers Under 12.5 Points (+105)
The Packers are locked into the NFC’s No. 7 seed, and they haven’t hidden their top priority this week.
It’s not earning a victory. Their primary objective is to preserve their health for the playoffs.
Jordan Love has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Malik Willis has been able to log a pair of limited-participation practices.
Nevertheless, the Packers will start Clayton Tune against Minnesota’s talented and aggressive defense.
Tune is ill-equipped to handle Brian Flores‘ defense.
Tune appeared in seven games and started one in his rookie campaign in 2023, and he was 70th out of 70 quarterbacks with at least 25 plays in EPA per play (-0.98).
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tune has a 55.6% completion rate, 78 passing yards, 2.9 yards per pass attempt, 0 big-time throws, 3 turnover-worthy plays (7.1 TWP%), 8 sacks, and a 40.0% pressure-to-sack (P2S%) on 40 dropbacks in his career.
Context is crucial, and it’s unkind to Tune.
Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in 2025, Tune’s 7.1 TWP% and 40.0 P2S% would rank 42nd and 42nd, better than only Brady Cook’s 8.2 TWP% and 41.9 P2S%.
Tune will be unable to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs since the running back won’t play much, if at all, this week.
The Tune-led Packers would struggle to move the ball or score points on even an average NFL defense, and the Vikings are better than that.
The Vikings are tied for third in EPA per play allowed (-0.10), third in EPA per pass allowed (-0.13), tied for sixth in EPA per rush allowed (-0.07), and fifth in success rate allowed (40.82%).
According to Pro Football Reference, Minnesota is also fifth in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for eighth in turnovers forced (21), first in blitz rate (43.8%), tied for fifth in hurry rate (10.0%), tied for fifth in quarterback knockdown rate (11.0%), third in pressure rate (28.3%), tied for sixth in sacks (45), and tied for ninth in scoring defense (20.6 points per game).
The Vikings are also in pristine form.
Since Week 14, they’ve allowed 0 points to the Commanders in Minnesota, 26 to the Cowboys in Dallas, 13 to the Giants in New Jersey, and 10 to the Lions in Minnesota.
Thus, they’ve held their previous two opponents in Minnesota under 12.5 points, and neither the Commanders nor the Lions were led by Tune.
Minnesota should give Green Bay’s third-string quarterback and offense as a whole fits this week and hold them under 12.5 points.
Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Chicago Bears -3.0 (-104)
The Bears have no motivation issues this week, securing the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a victory against the visiting Lions.
They lost a heartbreaking shootout against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.
Fortunately, they’re in a favorable bounce-back spot against the Lions this week.
Dan Campbell would likely relish the opportunity to be a spoiler against Ben Johnson. That will be a tall task with Detroit’s injury-ravaged present roster.
Brian Branch, Terrion Arnold, and Kerby Joseph are already on the injured reserve.
Alex Anzalone and Thomas Harper are in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but both upgraded from non-participation on Wednesday to limited participation on Thursday.
Of course, that doesn’t ensure either will clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s action.
Alim McNeill’s outlook is potentially even worse.
He hasn’t practiced this week because of an abdominal injury that knocked him out of the Christmas defeat to the Vikings after only 15 snaps.
Detroit’s injuries aren’t limited to the defensive side of the ball.
Unfortunately, they’ve navigated multiple injuries along the offensive line lately, and Penei Sewell is a new addition to the injury report, missing Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices with an ankle injury.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is also banged up.
He didn’t practice on Wednesday but was limited with a knee and ankle designation on Thursday, and The Sun God would like to suit up this week.
Of course, being active doesn’t mean St. Brown will play an entire allotment of snaps.
The Lions are a mash unit.
Moreover, Jared Goff is at his best at home and indoors. He’s on the road and outdoors this week.
According to TruMedia, Goff is 11-6 with a 67.0% completion rate, 259.9 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 30 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 31 sacks taken in 17 games outdoors since 2023.
It will be a cold game in Chicago, too.
Goff has underwhelmed in the cold.
He has a 5-3-1 record, 60.3% completion rate, 233.1 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 16 sacks taken, and 89.1 quarterback rating in nine games with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or colder since 2021.
Chicago has the offensive firepower to put itself out of Goff’s reach to keep up.
The Bears are tied for seventh in EPA per play (0.08), tied for ninth in EPA per pass (0.09), fourth in EPA per rush (0.06), tied for ninth in yards per play (5.7), first in turnovers (10), fourth in sacks allowed (23), and 10th in scoring offense (26.6 points per game).
Chicago’s defense isn’t as good as its offense.
Nonetheless, they’re tied for 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.01). Coincidentally, the Bears and Lions are tied for 22nd in scoring defense (24.8 points per game).
Injuries to the Lions and the quality of Chicago’s offense should tilt the scales toward the Bears beating the Lions by more than 3 points in a game they need to lock up the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
