The AFC and NFC Championship Games for the 2025 NFL season are here!
Let's look at the two best bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
AFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Over 23.5 Points (-113)
The Patriots had an outstanding season on offense.
According to Sumer Sports, they were first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03), and fourth in success rate (46.93%) in the regular season.
Unsurprisingly, traditional measures were sparkling, too.
Per Pro Football Reference, New England was tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and second in scoring offense (28.8 points per game).
The Pats stumbled out of the blocks offensively in the playoffs, tallying only 16 points against the Chargers.
They rebounded with aplomb in the Divisional Round by scoring 28 points, though one of their touchdowns came on a pick-six.
C.J. Stroud threw 4 interceptions and took 3 sacks, and Woody Marks lost a fumble.
Among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season, Stroud was tied for 10th in EPA per play (0.11).
He was miserable in the Wild Card Round against the Steelers.
Nevertheless, New England’s ability to stop him in the Divisional Round was impressive, and they’ll face a quarterback who didn’t attempt a pass in the regular season.
Jarrett Stidham’s action this season includes handing off three times and kneeling once against the Cowboys.
Stidham has 234 career dropbacks, 1,422 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a 59.4% completion rate, 8 passing touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.
His numbers have left something to be desired, and his 8 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions were friendlier to his performance than his 2 big-time throws (1.0 BTT%) and 8 turnover-worthy plays (3.2 TWP%), via PFF.
Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 38 dropbacks this season, Stidham’s 1.0 BTT% would be dead last behind Dillon Gabriel’s 1.5 BTT%, and his 3.2 TWP% would tie Joe Flacco’s mark for 21st.
Stidham could completely faceplant against the Patriots, providing Drake Maye and the offense with short fields.
Alternatively, if Sean Payton is in his bag and gets the most out of Stidham, the Broncos could push New England to score.
Payton also likely won’t have a choice but lean on the pass.
As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Fantasy Football Worksheet, New England’s run defense has been stout with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane on the field, holding 124 running back runs to 3.3 yards per carry.
While Payton’s hand might be forced to lean on Stidham’s arm, the Patriots have pass-leaning tendencies.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, New England was fifth in pass rate over expectations (+5.4% PROE) in the regular season.
Conversely, the Broncos faced the fifth-highest PROE (+3.6%).
Denver’s pass defense is an excellent unit, ranking tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11) in the regular season.
They’re not flawless, though.
The Broncos faced five quarterbacks in the top-10 in EPA per pass this season, excluding Stroud’s injury-shortened start in Week 9.
Specifically, Denver faced Daniel Jones in Week 2, Dak Prescott in Week 8, Patrick Mahomes in Week 11, Jordan Love in Week 15, and Josh Allen in the Divisional Round.
Those teams recorded 29, 24, 19, 26, and 30 points.
Thus, they permitted 25.6 points per game in games against top-10 quarterbacks in EPA per play, and only one of those teams scored fewer than 23.5 points.
Even if the Broncos continue Maye’s postseason sack-and-turnover woes, that doesn’t preclude the Patriots from clearing 23.5 points.
The Bills had 5 turnovers, and Allen absorbed 3 sacks last week.
It didn’t matter. Buffalo still scored 30 points.
It doesn’t have to be pretty for the Patriots to eclipse 23.5 points for the 16th time this season on Sunday afternoon.
NFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 Points (-105)
The NFC Championship Game is an NFC West rubbermatch between the Rams and the Seahawks.
The Rams won the first matchup 21-19 in Week 11 in Los Angeles, and the Seahawks won the second matchup 38-37 in overtime in Seattle in Week 16.
The margins were razor-thin in the two previous matchups, and the spread is slight in the third matchup.
The Rams have an elite offense, and the Seahawks have an elite defense.
The Rams were tied for second in EPA per play (0.12) and first in success rate (50.46%) on offense in the regular season.
The Seahawks were second in EPA allowed per play (-0.12) and third in success rate allowed (39.25%) in the regular season.
LA’s offense versus Seattle’s defense is a battle of juggernauts.
Seattle’s offense versus Los Angeles’s defense is also intriguing, but not because they’re elite units.
Instead, the Seahawks were tied for 14th in EPA per play (0.02) and eighth in success rate (45.32%) in the regular season, and the Rams were 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) and 11th in success rate allowed (41.60%).
When the matchups are this tight, the quarterback can be the deciding factor.
Matthew Stafford was tied for fourth in EPA per play (0.17), and Sam Darnold was tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.09) among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season.
Stafford was better in the regular season, but Darnold acquitted himself well.
Ultimately, how Stafford and Darnold do when pressured could be the difference in this contest.
Among 33 quarterbacks with 100 pressured dropbacks this year, Stafford was seventh in PFF’s passing grade (59.1), and Darnold was 17th (50.0).
Obviously, Stafford will face the superior defense on Sunday.
Sadly, Darnold might be saddled with shaky protection.
Mike Macdonald is optimistic that left tackle Charles Cross will play on Sunday.
However, he hasn’t practiced this week with a foot injury.
It gets worse. Backup tackles Josh Jones and Amari Kight also haven’t practiced this week.
Cross (77.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) and Jones (71.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) are Seattle’s highest graded pass blocking tackles and their highest graded pass blockers among offensive linemen with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps this year.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams were fourth in pressure rate (26.3%) in the regular season.
Darnold could be under siege if the Seahawks are down to their fourth-string left tackle.
However, even if a banged-up Cross can gut out his foot injury, he could struggle against a talented pass rush.
Darnold’s track record against Chris Shula’s defense is also discouraging for Seattle’s outlook this week.
With the Vikings last year, Darnold faced the Rams in Week 8 and in the Wild Card Round.
Darnold had a 66.2% completion rate, 485 passing yards, 5.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 97.3 quarterback rating in two losses to the Rams last season.
Darnold took 12 sacks (15.2% sack rate) and lost a fumble in those matchups.
Darnold split the matchups against the Rams this year.
However, he completed 65.4% of his passes for 549 yards, 3.57 ANY/A, 2 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 62.4 quarterback rating while taking 4 sacks.
In a likely tight matchup, taking the points with Stafford is appealing.
It’s even more appealing if Cross is unable to suit up.
