NFL Referee Assignment for Divisional Round, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

NFL Referee Assignments for the Divisional Round

Divisional Round	Referee
Bills at Broncos	Carl Cheffers
49ers at Seahawks	John Hussey
Texans at Patriots	Shawn Smith
Rams at Bears	Shawn Hochuli

Carl Cheffers’ Impact on Bills at Broncos

The Bills and Broncos meet in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Buffalo trounced Denver in 2024, but the Broncos have ascended since then to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, this time hosting the Bills, with the winner a game away from the Super Bowl

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Carl Cheffers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

Unlike his playoff assignment last season in the Ravens at Bills Divisional Round contest, which was a predominantly Cheffers-based crew, he is flying solo here. He will be joined by two Alex Kemp officials, and this unit will be rounded out with one official apiece from the John Hussey, Clay Martin, Scott Novak, and Land Clark crews.
Cheffers ranked second in penalty per game average in the regular season, but expect a decline here based on historical trends in the playoffs.
The combination of officials in this game from the Martin, Novak, Kemp, and Cheffers crews ranked third through sixth, respectively, in calling offensive holding this season.
The Broncos defense and home crowd ranked in the top five of all teams at generating offensive holding and false start penalties on opposing offenses in 2025.
The Bills co-ranked No. 1 for offensive holding in the regular season. The positive for Buffalo is that, like clockwork, offensive holding penalties declined significantly in the Wild Card Round. If that continues this week, and history suggests it will, it is a huge break for the Bills offense versus a relentless defensive front and with a crew that was predisposed to calling this infraction at a high rate in 2025.
The Broncos also ranked as a top 10 penalized team for offensive holding per game. However, the Bills defense ranked 32nd in generating beneficial offensive holding on opposing teams this season.
The Bills rank 30th in pre-snap penalty per game average, and their ability to avoid self-inflicted pre-snap errors will be critical in this contest.
The Broncos defense ranked No. 1 in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty in the regular season. Defensive penalties were down 40% versus regular season averages on Wild Card Weekend. Denver stands to be a major beneficiary here if the defensive units are provided some leeway again this week.
Cheffers-officiated contests led the NFL in interceptions per game in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

Cheffers has been one of the best home field advantage referees in the NFL the past decade, with home teams recording a 62% win rate.
Home playoff teams are 8-4 in Cheffers-officiated contests.
Similar to last week’s game with Brad Allen, the Bills have an extensive playoff history with Cheffers. Buffalo is 3-1 in four playoff contests with Cheffers in the Josh Allen era, with all four contests at home.

Denver was routed last season in their Wild Card playoff game at Buffalo, and they have the chance to turn the tables here.

We posed the question with Jacksonville last week and will ask the same this week.

Are the Broncos another overachieving regular season team that cannot take it up a gear in higher-intensity playoff contests?

While the Bills have become too Josh Allen dependent, if there is a player in the NFL you want to depend on, he would be the guy.

Denver didn’t look great over the final month of the regular season, but they had a bye week to reset and have a championship coach in Sean Payton, who has navigated this path before.

The Broncos defense will be the best unit on the field for this game and is backed by arguably the best home field advantage in the NFL.

That combination and an extra week to prepare gives the No. 1 seed in the AFC enough of an edge, making the Denver Broncos -1.5 the selection in a down-to-the-wire contest.

Bet the Broncos -1.5

Shawn Hochuli’s Impact on Rams at Bears

The Rams and Bears enter this matchup off late-game comebacks in the Wild Card Round. The NFC Championship awaits the winner in the first playoff meeting between the two franchises since 1985.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

Hochuli will lead the crew along with one member from his regular season staff. The remainder of this unit will be with officials from the Clay Martin. John Hussey, Brad Rogers, and Brad Allen officiating crews.
Offenses accounted for 60% of overall penalties assessed in the Wild Card Round, significantly higher than the regular season average of 47.7%. Historically, Hochuli has emphasized offensive penalties at a higher than league average. That wasn't the case this season, although a return to that approach would not be surprising here.
The Bears offense accounted for an above average 54% of the team's overall penalties in the regular season. Chicago ranks third for pre-snap penalties per game, primarily via elevated false start infractions.
Conversely, the Rams offense ranks 31st in penalty per game average, including being the least penalized offense on third down plays.
The Chicago defense ranks in the bottom five in generating both false start and offensive holding penalties on opposing offenses.
Hochuli-officiated contests awarded the second-highest amount of automatic first downs via penalty in the 2025 regular season. Hochuli ranked No. 1 for unnecessary roughness and second overall in calling roughing the passer and defensive pass interference.
The Rams offense is a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty.
The Bears rank last as a beneficiary of defensive pass interference but rank as the No. 1 beneficiary of illegal contact.
Despite ranking third in penalty per game average in 2025, Hochuli’s crew did call a below average percentage of their overall penalties on third down plays.

The Bottom Line:

Home teams are 3-3 in Hochuli-officiated playoff games. Home teams were 6-10 with Hochuli in the 2025 regular season.
Hochuli-officiated contests go under the total at a 58% rate in his career, although he is 4-2 to the over in playoff games.

The Bears have a team of destiny vibe about them after another Houdini-like escape against the Packers in the Wild Card Round.

The Rams boast an elite offense, which will be the best unit on the field for this game, and should thrive versus a weak Bears defense.

Chicago’s margin for error shrinks this week versus Sean McVay’s team, which has been arguably the best in the NFL this season.

The late-game magic the Bears have lived off in 2025 ends here against a team with a championship pedigree, making the Los Angeles Rams -3.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Rams -3.5

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career
Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
Home teams are 77-68-3 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS
Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career