The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Broncos and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 26.9 | 8 | Points/Gm | 24.4 | 12 |
| 20.9 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 18.6 | 3 |
| 64.2 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 10 |
| 61.6 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 23 |
| 5.2 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 5.0 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 2 |
| 45.50% | 12 | Rush% | 41.87% | 23 |
| 54.50% | 21 | Pass% | 58.13% | 10 |
| 36.04% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 37.76% | 2 |
| 63.96% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 62.24% | 31 |
- Denver is the last unbeaten team at home this season (7-0).
- The Broncos have won 12 consecutive home games, their longest streak since the 2012-2013 season (13 games).
- Jacksonville is 5-0 with an NFL-best +99 point differential over their past five games.
- The Jaguars have trailed for a league-low 27.4% of their offensive snaps.
- Denver is the only team that has led in every game this season.
- The Broncos have also trailed in 13 of 14 games this season.
- Denver is allowing 1.63 points per drive, 3rd in the league.
- The Jaguars are allowing 1.82 points per drive, 6th in the league.
- Since their Week 8 bye, 33.6% of Jacksonville's passing plays have gained 10 or more yards (2nd). Before that, they were at 23.3% (25th).
- Jacksonville has averaged 2.80 points per drive over that span, 4th in the league.
- Denver has allowed a 31.9% third down conversion rate on defense, the lowest in the league.
- The Broncos have allowed a touchdown on a league-low 38.5% (15 of 39) of red zone trips.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence continued his strong play on Sunday with a career game against the Jets.
Lawrence threw for a season-high 330 yards, throwing a career-high 5 touchdown passes and running in a sixth score.
He ended the day with a career-high 44.3 fantasy points, the most a quarterback has had in a game this season.
Lawrence has been a QB1 scorer in nine of his past 10 games and a top-10 scorer in each of his past four games.
He has thrown for at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt in four straight games for the first time in his career.
He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games, also the longest streak of his career.
This is the hottest passing game in the NFL, and we will get an excellent barometer of where they actually are in this matchup.
Lawrence’s hottest stretch of his career has come against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets.
The last time Lawrence was not a QB1 scorer was in Week 10 against the Texans, when he was the QB21 (9.8 points).
This will be a test on par with that matchup, which is reflected in the Jacksonville team total.
Denver is seventh in passing points allowed (11.6 per game), allowing a 58.5% completion rate (3rd), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (7th), and a 2.9% touchdown rate (3rd).
Denver has allowed multiple touchdown passes three times this season.
Lawrence has five other games this season against top-10 pass defenses.
- Week 3 vs. HOU: QB28 (7.8 points), 5.5 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT
- Week 5 vs. KC: QB6 (26.2 points), 8.8 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 54 rush yards, 2 TD
- Week 6 vs. SEA: QB12 (19.2 points), 6.1 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT,
- Week 10 vs. HOU: QB21 (9.8 points), 6.9 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yards
- Week 11 vs. LAC: QB12 (15 points), 7.0 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush TD
He did log two back-end QB1 scoring weeks against the Seahawks and Chargers, and a spike week against the Chiefs, in part due to his rushing performance.
That at least keeps the lights on for gamers who do not want to stream for Lawrence, but it casts a cloud on anticipating a spike week, which is why I would prefer to use him as a QB2 here.
Denver has not been unbeatable defensively.
They have allowed top-six scoring weeks to Jaxson Dart, Marcus Mariota, and Daniel Jones.
Jones is the standout of that group.
Dart’s game came after Denver traveled from London without a bye, and Mariota’s production came very late in the game and overtime.
Denver has been good against mobile quarterbacks, facing Patrick Mahomes (3 yards), Jalen Hurts (3 yards), Justin Herbert (3 yards), Jaxson Dart (11 yards), Jordan Love (29 yards), Justin Fields (31 yards), Dak Prescott (31 yards), and Marcus Mariota (55 yards).
I am curious to see what Liam Coen took away from his matchup with Denver a year ago when he was with the Buccaneers and what he can apply here.
In that game, Tampa Bay scored a season-low 7 points with 223 total yards of offense.
Bo Nix: Nix is coming off an excellent game on Sunday against Green Bay, completing 23 of 34 passes (67.6%) for 302 yards for a season-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt with 4 touchdowns.
He was the QB2 (29.1 points) last week, trailing only Lawrence.
This is an exciting matchup for how volatile it can be through both quarterbacks.
Nix has thrown for at least 295 yards in three of his past four games.
Denver has shifted pass-heavy since the loss of J.K. Dobbins, throwing the ball 8.6% over expectations over their past four games.
Only the Cardinals (10.8%) have a higher pass rate over expectation over that period.
That will be a dynamic that should remain static here as offenses have thrown the ball 4.9% over expectations against the Jaguars, the second-highest rate in the league.
This Jacksonville defense is hot, but they have also faced Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, and Brady Cook the past three weeks.
They did completely demolish Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 11 as well, to be fair.
The Chargers have not been great since losing Joe Alt, but they never even had a chance to come up for air in that game.
Before the previous three games, Jacksonville had allowed QB1 scoring weeks in six of its previous seven games, which included Davis Mills (27.7 points) and Geno Smith (26.3 points).
We should see how far this defense has come here, but Nix still takes a step of faith as a boom-or-bust option since he has left plenty on the table this season.
Last week was Nix’s first QB1 scoring week since Week 8.
I would also prefer to use Nix as a QB2, but if I had to pick one here, I would side with Nix and will be throwing him out in DFS as well.
Running Back
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More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |
