We not only have Thanksgiving Day on Thursday but also three NFL games: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
Let's look at the best prop bets for Thanksgiving Day, with one from each game.
Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Jordan Love’s game logs are quite interesting.
He’s either passed for 259 yards or more or 188 yards or less — there’s nothing in between.
He’s thrown for 259 yards or more in five of 11 games, and after this Thanksgiving Day affair, it’ll be six out of 12.
The Lions defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Against those coverages this season, Love is 118 of 182 for 1,419 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
For context, this is his stat line this season: 224 of 331 for 2,560 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
If you look at his gamelogs and against Cover 1 and Cover 3 only, he’s thrown for 229 yards or more in two games.
This is important to note because it’s not as if Love will face Cover 1 and/or Cover 3 100% of the time.
There have been 404 opposing quarterback dropbacks against the Lions, and Cover 1 and Cover 3 make up about 61% of what quarterbacks have seen.
In Week 1 against the Lions' Cover 1 and Cover 3, Love had 156 passing yards and finished with 188 total.
However, the Packers had a substantial lead in that game, and throwing wasn’t as necessary.
Not only that, but Week 1 around the NFL tends to have sluggish offenses.
All that being said, opposing quarterbacks average 19.27 completions on 31.64 attempts for 226.09 yards and 1.82 passing touchdowns against the Lions.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit 229 passing yards or more in five of 11 games against them, and one quarterback hit 228.
Last week, the Lions' defense surrendered 366 passing yards to New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston.
I expect a bit more of a shootout here, which will help elevate Love’s passing numbers, especially with a downfield threat like Christian Watson, who could get a massive chunk of this line on a single catch.
Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-190)
This season, Mahomes has completed 262 of 407 passes for 2,977 yards, 7.3 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.
Keep this in mind. That’s important context to lead with.
Why? The Cowboys primarily play Cover 2 and Cover 3.
Yes, they’ve had an atrocious defense this season, but against those coverages, Mahomes has completed 99 of 137 passes for 1,358 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
So, of the 18 touchdown passes, only 2 all season long have come against Cover 2 and Cover 3.
He’s thrown 11 touchdowns against Cover 0 and Cover 1, and the Cowboys don’t play that hardly ever.
Opposing quarterbacks have seen that on only 69 of 431 dropbacks (16%).
The Cowboys do allow 2.18 touchdown passes per game, and five quarterbacks have had 3 or more touchdown passes.
In each of the last three games, though, they’ve allowed 2 touchdowns or fewer in each, including 1 in each of their last two.
Mahomes himself has thrown 3 touchdowns or more in four of 11 games this season, but has just 1 passing touchdown over his last three games total.
Additionally, tight end Travis Kelce leads the team with an 18.7% target share.
With Rashee Rice on the field, he’s second at 18.4%.
The Cowboys defense is allowing just 0.27 touchdowns per game to tight ends, allowing just 3 all season.
Also, keep in mind that the Cowboys now have Quinnen Williams, and other players like promising rookie cornerback Shavon Revel are continuing to get more involved with the defense.
3 passing touchdowns are a lot for anyone.
Yes, the Cowboys defense has been terrible, but they’ve been playing a bit better recently, and this isn’t exactly the most feared Chiefs offense we’ve seen.
Take the under.
Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Mark Andrews Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
This line for Andrews may seem modest, but this season, he’s only reached 40 yards or more once.
Of course, a big part of that is that the team was without quarterback Lamar Jackson for several games.
But that said, since Jackson came back against the Miami Dolphins, the highest he’s hit is 32 yards.
However, this is a fantastic spot for him.
The Bengals are allowing 10.09 targets, 6.91 receptions, 87.45 receiving yards, and 1.18 touchdowns per game to tight ends.
Those are the most in each respective category.
This season, Andrews is second in target share at 16.7%.
With Jackson on the field, he’s still second at 16.9%.
He’s caught 22 of a possible 32 passes for 201 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He’s run a route on 69.6% of Jackson’s dropbacks, which is notably higher than fellow tight end Isaiah Likely’s 50.3%.
Over the last three games, his target share is second on the team at 17.8%.
He’s caught 7 passes for 55 yards.
Conversely, Likely is at a 13.7% target share, catching 5 passes for 42 yards.
It’s also worth noting that the Bengals predominantly play Cover 3.
Against that, Andrews has 10 receptions for 86 yards.
Looking over each coverage this season, those receptions are tied for the most, and the yards are second.
Something else to consider is that Joe Burrow will be back in the lineup for the Bengals.
The defense will continue to be terrible, but Burrow has a great chance of making this game into a bit more of a shootout, which will bode well for Andrews.
The production hasn’t been there this season in terms of 40 yards or more, but this spot is too good to pass up.
