Bears vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Bears and Packers.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

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Game Overview

Saturday night closes with the NFL’s most storied rivalry.

These teams have met 210 times in the regular season, but this will be only the third postseason meeting.

Being a divisional matchup, we have seen these teams play twice already this season, both in December.

The Packers won 28-21 in Green Bay in Week 14, while the Bears won the rematch in Chicago 22-16.

Green Bay opened both matchups with the upper hand, leading at the half 14-3 in the first matchup and 6-0 in the second game.

Green Bay led 16-6 late in the second matchup before the Bears scored 10 points in the final two minutes of the game to send the game into overtime.

They won on a 46-yard strike from Caleb Williams to D.J. Moore.

That has been the story for the Bears in their breakout season.

Chicago has a league-high six wins when trailing in the fourth quarter this season.

The Bears average 3.15 points per drive in the fourth quarter (2nd in the league) compared to 2.02 points per drive through three quarters (17th).

That second matchup also only featured Jordan Love for 26 snaps, who was forced from the game in the second quarter with a concussion.

The Bears have been one of the better stories this season, going 11-6 in Ben Johnson’s first season as coach and winning the division for the first time since 2018.

They will be looking to get their first playoff win since 2010.

Chicago turned it around with a spike in offensive rushing efficiency and by dominating the turnover battle.

The Bears lead the league in success rate on rushing plays (47.1%).

Chicago has the best turnover margin in the league at +22, scoring 104 points off takeaways (2nd) while only allowing 31 points off turnovers (2nd).

Chicago forced a turnover on a league-high 18.2% of opponent possessions.

That was necessary because Chicago allowed 2.71 points per drive when they did not get a turnover.

That ranked 27th in the league and was the highest rate among playoff teams.

The Packers scored only 23 points off takeaways this season, which ranked 31st in the league.

The good news is that they allowed only 37 points off turnovers, which was fourth.

Green Bay’s key margins came on third downs.

The Packers converted 48.8% of their third downs (2nd in the league) and a league-high 38.4% of their third and long situations (needing seven-plus yards).

When these teams played in the regular season, Green Bay converted 66.7% (8 of 12) and 50% (6 of 12) of third downs.

In the two games these teams played, Green Bay added 13.9 expected points on third downs while the Bears were at -3.3.

Quarterback

Jordan Love: We have not seen Love since the start of Week 16, when he was forced from the second game between these teams with a concussion in the second quarter.

Love is a boom-or-bust quarterback facing a boom-or-bust defense.

Love was the QB11 (19.3 points) when these teams played in Week 14.

Without pressure this season, Love has the highest rating in the league (128.8), completing a league-high 79.6% of his passes for 9.2 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and an 8.1% touchdown rate (3rd).

When pressured, Love has completed 41.6% of his passes (30th) for 5.0 Y/A (30th) and a 0% touchdown rate.

The Bears pressured Love 34.6% of the time in Week 14.

When kept clean in that game, Love was 17 of 24 (70.8%) for 234 yards (9.8 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns.

When pressured, he was 4 of 8 for 30 yards (3.8 Y/A) with a sack.

The Bears have a league-high 4.3% interception rate but also allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt (28th) and a 6% touchdown rate (28th).

They are 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.480).

When Chicago has not gotten pressure this season, they have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt (24th) and a 7% touchdown rate (31st).

Love could be in a better position to work from a clean pocket if Zach Tom is good to go for Saturday night.

Tom missed five games this season and has not played since the Denver game in Week 15.

Love has been pressured on 37.3% of his dropbacks. With Tom on the field this season compared to a 44% pressure rate with Tom off the field.

With Tom on the field, Love has a 1% interception rate and a 3.2% sack rate.

With Tom off the field, Love has a 2.1% interception rate and a 7.2% sack rate.

How aggressive the Bears get in the rematch could be the story here.

The Bears played man coverage 37% of the time in the first matchup, with Love completing 8 of 10 passes for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In his small sample in the rematch before leaving, the Bears did not play any snaps of man coverage.

Caleb Williams: Williams made wholesale improvements in his sophomore season with Ben Johnson.

He went from a 39.8% success rate in 2024 (30th) to a 42.5% success rate (22nd) this season.

24.6% of his dropbacks resulted in a gain of 1.0 EPA or more (14th) after a 20.4% rate as a rookie (30th).

Only 14.2% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse (6th) after an 18.6% rate in 2024 (29th).

Johnson had Williams playing more under center in his second season.

After a 28.8% under-center rate as a rookie, Williams was at 48.4% this year.

That increased his play-action rate from 16.9% as a rookie to 33.3% this year.

The last hurdle Williams needs to clear is accuracy as a passer.

He still only completed 58.1% of his throws this year, ahead of just J.J. McCarthy (57.6%).

Williams had a 14.6% inaccurate throw rate, which was the worst among the 33 passers who qualified for the league’s passer rating.

Full-game consistency has been the story in these two matchups for Williams.

He has gotten off to poor starts in both matchups.

Williams started rough against Green Bay in Week 14, completing 6 of 14 passes (42.9%) for 32 yards (2.3 Y/A) in the first half.

He picked things up after the break, completing 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 154 yards (7.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half in an attempted comeback that fell short and ended on an interception in the end zone.

When these teams played again in Week 16, Williams was only 8 of 13 for 107 yards entering the fourth quarter before going 11 of 21 for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime.

He added 30 rushing yards, 21 of which came in the fourth quarter.

Like Love, Williams has been sensitive to pressure.

Williams has a shaky completion rate regardless of pressure, but he averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt (13th) when he isn't pressured compared to 5.4 Y/A when pressured (26th).

Green Bay pressured him on 35.9% of his dropbacks in Week 14 and then 48.6% in Week 16.

They did not have Micah Parsons in that second matchup, either.

The Packers even blitzed Williams at a lower rate (27%) in the rematch than with Parsons (28.2%).

Green Bay only played man coverage on 10% and 16.2% of the dropbacks in those games, but when they did, Williams made them pay.

On 10 total dropbacks in two games against man coverage, Williams threw 3 of his 4 touchdowns against the Packers.

Even though they did have success for most of that second game, Green Bay has, of course, been a worse defense since losing Parsons.

Over the past month, they have allowed 391, 400, 414, and 363 yards on defense.

Before that, they had allowed more than 336 yards in a game twice.

On 204 dropbacks without Parsons on the field, Green Bay has allowed a 67% completion rate (27th), 4.9% touchdown rate (18th), with as 3.7% sack rate (31st) compared to a 64.9% completion rate (18th), 4.1% touchdown rate (12th), and a 7.3% sack rate (11th)) with Parsons.

The one area where they have remained strong is allowing only 6.6 Y/A without Parsons (9th) compared to 6.3 Y/A with him (5th).

Running Back

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