Alabama vs. Tennessee, Current Betting Odds:
- Alabama -7.5 points
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Alabama vs. Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:
- Alabama -7.5 points
Tennessee's offense is a mess, so let's lay the points and take Alabama against the spread.
When Alabama Is on Offense
Alabama typically runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Kalen DeBoer and his longtime coordinator Ryan Grubb, though this year's squad has been more balanced than DeBoer's first two seasons in Tuscaloosa.
For Tennessee to have a chance in this game, the Vols defense will need to solve DeBoer's offense, something it failed to do last year when the Tide put 37 points on the board.
In his first year on the job, Tennessee coordinator Jim Knowles appears to have turned around a Vols defense so far.
The Vols ranked 91st in scoring defense a season ago.
They rank 19th entering this contest.
However, Tennessee has yet to play a dangerous offense, especially one that attacks downfield with the volume and success of Alabama.
Outside the red zone, Alabama throws 15 or more yards downfield 33% of the time and has completed 60% of those passes (ranked 9th), per Sports Info Solutions.
Tennessee's downfield pass defense has been untested so far, facing downfield throws just 12% of the time, which appears to be more a reflection of the offenses the Vols have faced than a respect for their defense.
When teams have attacked the Vols secondary, they have found success.
Even Arch Manning, who struggles as a downfield passer, was 5 for 7 on throws of 15 or more yards against Tennessee.
He's 14 for 30 at that depth against everyone else.
However, in order to attack downfield, Alabama will need to be able to protect Keelon Russell, which won't necessarily be easy.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 79th in pressure rate allowed
- Tennessee: ranked 10th in pressure rate generated
A strong pass rush is potentially how Tennessee can disrupt the Alabama passing attack because it does not look like the Tide can adjust their strategy effectively based on what we've seen against the best defenses they have faced.
Alabama tends to allow pressure at a high rate not because its offensive line struggles, but because Russell needs to spend more time in the pocket to attack downfield.
Russell holds the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 60% of his dropbacks, the nation's 23rd-highest rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
Alabama has tried to speed up its offense against better defenses, releasing the ball in under 2.5 seconds 63% of the time against Kentucky and 45% last week against Georgia, the only two times that rate climbed above 40% this year.
And when releasing the ball quickly in those games, Russell averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt.
So Tennessee does have a path to potentially slow down the Crimson Tide passing attack, but Alabama also appears to have an edge in the run game.
Let's take a look at some opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 37th in yards before contact
- Tennessee: ranked 101st in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 17th in yards after contact
- Tennessee: ranked 65th in yards after contact allowed
The Vol defense has made far too many mistakes against the run, which has led to opposing running backs gaining three or more yards before contact on 34% of attempts, ranked 116th in the FBS.
Those gaping holes have then led to big plays.
15% of carries against Tennessee have produced 10 or more yards, ranked 122nd.
One reason Alabama's rushing attack has improved this season is the depth provided by Trae'shawn Brown, Daniel Hill, and EJ Crowell.
Alabama has been able to spread the ball around with none of their ball carriers taking more than 35% of the handoffs.
The running style of the 234-pound Hill and 224-pound Crowell could also give Tennessee some issues due to the Vols' lack of physicality against the run.
Tennessee ranks 94th in broken/missed tackle rate against the run.
So even though Tennessee's pass rush has the potential to slow down Russell, there's reason to believe Alabama can pivot to a more run-heavy approach and still move the ball.
When Tennessee Is on Offense
The Vols are running a conservative offense this season under head coach and playcaller Josh Heupel, likely due to the team's inexperience at quarterback.
True freshman Faizon Brandon was benched two weeks ago, and redshirt-freshman George MacIntyre made his first career start last week against Arkansas.
The timing of the move was likely an effort to give MacIntyre a warm-up outing against the worst program in the SEC, but it didn't go well.
Three turnovers by MacIntyre dug a hole for the Vols, who needed a fourth-quarter comeback to pull out the victory.
The biggest concern for Tennessee is its inability to threaten defenses downfield with its passing attack.
Against SEC opponents, MacIntyre and Brandon have combined to go 5 for 18 on throws of 10 or more yards and have completed just 2 passes at 20 or more yards.
It's not going to get any easier against Alabama, which should be able to generate pressure, limiting MacIntyre's time to throw downfield.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers in the pass-protection battle from Sports Info Solutions:
- Tennessee: ranked 75th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 11th in pressure rate generated
Perhaps even more importantly, Alabama is generating pressure without the help of the blitz.
When bringing four or fewer pass rushers, Alabama has generated a 39% pressure rate, the nation's third-highest mark.
So if the Vols fall behind, Alabama will likely bury them due to Tennessee's inability to consistently move the ball through the air.
To avoid falling behind, expect Tennessee to lean heavily on the run early in the game, though the lack of respect for the passing game certainly makes that more difficult.
Tennessee potentially has an edge in the ground game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Tennessee: ranked 7th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 41st in yards before contact allowed
- Tennessee: ranked 6th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 7th in yards after contact allowed
The numbers certainly point toward the Vols having an edge, but it's worth pointing out Alabama's defensive numbers compare favorably to Texas, which successfully shut down DeSean Bishop earlier this year.
Against the Longhorns, Bishop was limited to 34 yards on 11 carries.
Alabama's ability to limit yards after contact might be the most important factor in the run game, because Bishop has gained 65% of his yardage after first contact.
If Tennessee can't dominate on the ground, especially on the early downs, the Vols have no chance on offense due to their issues at quarterback.
This is perhaps best demonstrated by the fact that Tennessee ranks 101st in third-down conversion rate and 116th in third-and-long conversion rate.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Tennessee Best Bets
DeBoer's squad has the potential to turn this game into a rout if they build an early lead, so let's lay the points and take Alabama against the spread.
Tennessee's best chance to be competitive is to control the ball on the ground and bleed the clock, but Alabama's run defense is likely strong enough to limit the Vols' rushing attack.