Best 49ers Over/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Super Bowl 58

Sorting through the endless list of prop bets available for Super Bowl 58 is a challenge, so we’re here to help.

Here are a few of my favorite props to bet for the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Chiefs vs. 49ers covered in our Super Bowl 58 Hub.

Consider the over on Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception prop

Based on the Chiefs’ coverage scheme, let’s take the over on Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception.

Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception, current line:

The Chiefs typically prefer lining up in two-high safety formations, but when they shift to single-high coverage, Cover-1 is their coverage of choice.

According to TruMedia, Kansas City lines up in Cover-1 20% of the time overall, but that accounts for 47% of their snaps in single-high coverage. 

We can probably assume that rate climbs above 20% against San Francisco given the 49ers’ high run-rate, which usually forces teams into single-high at elevated rates as it allows them to stack the box. 

According to TruMedia, Brock Purdy has faced single-high coverage on 63% of his snaps. 

So if Kansas City is going to line up in Cover-1 at a high rate, we should expect some big plays from the San Francisco passing game based on this data from TruMedia:

  • 49ers gain 20 or more yards on 17% of plays versus Cover-1, ranked first
  • Chiefs allow 20 or more yards on 12% of plays in Cover-1, ranked 26th

Brandon Aiyuk is the most likely receiver to benefit from this trend, as he sees a 35% target share against Cover-1 with an average reception of 20.5 yards and 30% of his receptions producing at least 25 yards.  

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Consider the over on Elijah Mitchell’s longest rush prop

This line is extremely low due to his limited postseason usage, but let’s take the over on Elijah Mitchell’s longest rush.

Elijah Mitchell’s longest rush, current line:

Elijah Mitchell did not get a carry against the Green Bay Packers, but the 49ers were trailing for much of the game which allowed for just 17 handoffs (all for Christian McCaffrey). 

San Francisco was trailing for much of the NFC Championship game as well, but Mitchell did get on the field for four carries, though his longest rush was just three yards. 

During the regular season, however, Mitchell had a long rush of at least five yards in each of his final seven games. 

According to TruMedia, Mitchell picks up five or more yards on 33% of his carries, in line with the league average, so we should expect him to break off a longer run if he gets at least a few touches against this Chiefs defense. 

Including the playoffs, Kansas City gives up five or more yards on 36% of carries by running backs, ranked 24th. 

If San Francisco is having success on the ground against the Chiefs 一 and we expect it will given Kansas City’s poor run defense 一 Michell should get a few reps throughout the game to spell McCaffrey, allowing him to hit this over. 

Consider the over on Brock Purdy’s first quarter passing yards prop

Expect the 49ers to come out throwing, so take the over on Brock Purdy’s first quarter passing yards.

Brock Purdy’s first quarter passing yards, current line:

The 49ers are a run-first team, and they should have success on the ground against the Chiefs.

However, Brock Purdy has started slow against both the Packers and Lions, so it would make sense for San Francisco to turn to some easy pass plays early in the game to get him in a rhythm.

Aside from following that logic, we also have a decent trend on our side.

Purdy has at least 55 first quarter passing yards in 11 of 18 games this year, and two of the games falling under that number narrowly missed at 52 yards. 

As discussed in the section on Aiyuk, we also have reason to believe the 49ers will have success throwing downfield against Kansas City, potentially allowing Purdy to pick up a significant chunk of this yardage on just one play.

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