This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football’s biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s big SEC showdown between Kentucky and Tennessee.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Total, current line:
Kentucky vs Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:
Although Kentucky typically plays low-scoring games, expect Tennessee to control the pace of this contest 一 take the over at 62 points.
When Kentucky is on Offense
Kentucky runs the slowest offense in the nation, averaging a play once every 32.3 seconds. Expect them to lean on that slow pace more than ever in an effort to limit Tennessee’s possessions.
Although Kentucky plays slow, the passing game does have some explosive potential. The Wildcats rank 29th in percentage of pass plays producing 20 or more yards (13.5%).
Tennessee’s defense ranks 61st in explosive pass rate allowed (9.9%), so Kentucky could potentially keep pace if forced into a shootout.
Will Levis’s performance versus the blitz will be a key factor in this game. Tennessee blitzes at the nation’s 11th highest rate (40.7%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Levis is averaging 11.8 yards per attempt versus the blitz, the second-highest rate in FBS. However, Levis has also taken a sack against the blitz on 17.3% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate.
Tennessee’s sack rate on blitzes (5.6%) ranks 101st, so perhaps a high blitz rate would work in Levis’s favor.
Kentucky running backs have faced a stacked box at the 17th highest rate in the nation (65%), per Sports Info Solutions.
Tennessee’s defense leads the nation in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (1.9). However, the Vols rarely stack the box 一 even against 12 personnel, Tennessee stacks the box on just 33% of rush attempts the eighth lowest rate in the nation.
The Vols get away with this approach due to their success with a light box, allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt, ranked ninth in the FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
That said, Tennessee may be forced to take a more aggressive approach to stopping the run against Kentucky. Wildcats running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt versus a light box.
When Tennessee is on Offense
In contrast to Kentucky’s slow pace, Tennessee runs a play once every 21.1 seconds, the nation’s sixth-fastest pace.
Hendon Hooker is also among the most aggressive downfield passers, throwing at least 15 yards downfield on 29.4% of his attempts, the 13th highest rate in the FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
Opposing offenses tend to respect Kentucky’s secondary, attempting 22% fewer throws of 15 or more yards than against other opponents, the nation’s 21st lowest rate. However, Kentucky only ranks 58th in completion percentage allowed on those deep throws (40.6%).
The low downfield passing rate against Kentucky is due to its use of zone coverage with no blitz on 56% of opponent dropbacks, the nation’s fifth-highest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
Don’t expect that defensive style to slow down Hooker, however, as he’s completing 70% of his passes at 12.0 yards per attempt versus the no blitz/zone coverage combo.
Expect Hooker to have all day to throw in this matchup based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Tennessee ranks 1st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed
- Kentucky ranks 102nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated
In the run game, Tennessee spreads defenses out and runs into a light box on 66% of carries.
Kentucky is built to succeed against that style of run game, as it ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed with a light box (4.5).
Final Thoughts on Kentucky vs Tennessee Best Bets
This is a quintessential trap game for Tennessee, as the Vols travel to Georgia next weekend.
However, Kentucky gave Tennessee all it could handle in last year’s meeting 一 a 45-42 Tennessee victory 一 so Josh Heupel should be able to keep his squad focused on this week’s matchup.
Although Kentucky wants to run the ball and slow the game, that plays into Tennessee’s strength on defense.
Expect Kentucky to be forced to adjust to a more pass-heavy approach, and it should have success against the Vols’ inconsistent pass defense. Although these teams might not match last year’s 87 points, taking the over on 62 points feels like the smart bet in this matchup.